Buffalo Bumble Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Well Euro still has it.. Figured it would have lost it with the next run but there it is again. That first run was the kind of evolution you sketch out on paper as the “dream” storm for BUF-SYR. Bombing low in Delaware Bay that moves N/NW to near Ottawa. Still too far out to get excited but makes the next few model runs interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Figured it would have lost it with the next run but there it is again. That first run was the kind of evolution you sketch out on paper as the “dream” storm for BUF-SYR. Bombing low in Delaware Bay that moves N/NW to near Ottawa. Still too far out to get excited but makes the next few model runs interesting. Yeah, everyone would be happy with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Chased the snow a bit this afternoon into southern Erie County. Nice snowy afternoon down there. Didn’t run into anything too heavy but it was a solid moderate snow. About 3” OTG where I hiked in East Concord. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Southern Erie... 5 ENE Collins 6.0 in 0330 PM 11/26 Trained Spotter 5 NW Springville 5.0 in 0245 PM 11/26 NWS Employee Sardinia 4.0 in 0500 PM 11/26 Trained Spotter Sardinia 3.5 in 0130 PM 11/26 Public 3 ENE Holland 1.5 in 0400 PM 11/26 Trained Spotter Langford 1.0 in 0320 PM 11/26 Trained Spotter ...Chautauqua... Jamestown 5.8 in 0230 PM 11/26 Amateur Radio ...Cattaraugus... 1 N Perrysburg 5.0 in 0340 PM 11/26 CO-OP Observer 5 SSW West Valley 5.0 in 0400 PM 11/26 Public South Dayton 4.0 in 0345 PM 11/26 Trained Spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 So it’s becoming increasingly likely that the whole area sees a 1-3” snowfall Sunday afternoon through Sunday night…some nuisance LES Monday then a bit of a warmup…but that storm on the Euro and even somewhat the 18Z GFS fir next weekend really has my attention. An Aleutian ridge looks to develop which would help buckle the PV and throw colder air into the East. If the southern stream gets active and we get Greenland to cooperate we MIGHT just have our first legit system to track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Not what I want to see. For Rochester to see anything, this needs to stay over the southern tier but that’s a difficult track. These usually prefer to follow the lakes. RGEM is probably what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 I see this morning the NWS text states several inches tomorrow afternoon from lake enhancement Chautauqua to Buffalo Metro? We’re driving back from Florida and will be in that area around that late afternoon timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I see this morning the NWS text states several inches tomorrow afternoon from lake enhancement Chautauqua to Buffalo Metro? We’re driving back from Florida and will be in that area around that late afternoon timeframe. Yes 06z RGEM has a really nice band setting up tomorrow evening over the metro. Check out this run at 10:1 and the band is cranking over metro BUF and sinking south during hr 84 so more to come on top of these numbers. This is all verbatim of course which the RGEM is known for overdoing lake effect but still interesting to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 Our next real snowfall will come tonight and Sunday when a passing system will generate a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation over the western counties. This will be followed by lake snows Sunday night and Monday that will likely warrant fresh winter weather advisories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 NAM starting to show the lake enhancement across BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yes 06z RGEM has a really nice band setting up tomorrow evening over the metro. Check out this run at 10:1 and the band is cranking over metro BUF and sinking south during hr 84 so more to come on top of these numbers. This is all verbatim of course which the RGEM is known for overdoing lake effect but still interesting to see. This is from Tuesday not sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 A HUGE NW wind lake effect fail and a dying system that delivers maybe an inch to CNY? Then it all melts when the temp bounces to the 40s the next day? Oh, look, the winter of 20-21 has returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM starting to show the lake enhancement across BUF It’s funny how we sometimes hope for different things. For Buffalo, it’s actually good if the clipper goes further north. It allows a SW wind. For Rochester it just kills us. The SW wind gives us downsloping and then robs us of the NE wind that gives us our boost. All very evident on the RGEM. I think it’s a real solid possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Here ya go Matt. Since you think the weather is always trolling you, I thought this might make you feel better. The green blob is only over my head! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 I'm surprised the last event didn't produce off Ontario, main culprit was lack of deep moisture and it hit during the day instead of at night like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: A HUGE NW wind lake effect fail and a dying system that delivers maybe an inch to CNY? Then it all melts when the temp bounces to the 40s the next day? Oh, look, the winter of 20-21 has returned. Aren't you at double digit snowfall and its Nov 27th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 How we didn’t end up with something good is amazing to me. Upcoming pattern looks meh. We get a chance or two but probably more of the same. This parade of clippers are just a month too soon-as BufWX said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Aren't you at double digit snowfall and its Nov 27th? Definitely not double digit. One fluke event that delivered a nice snowfall. Unfortunately it melted within two days with the normal Sizzle. But, that's to be expected in November. Back to the normally scheduled program. 4 to 6 inches expected yesterday and webcams show grass with a light dusting. Yikes. As we all know, lake effect can be fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 NW Pennsylvania has had a very wintry start this year. Many snowfalls already. Looking good for another one...and Buffalo looks to join in this time! Some of the models look to be enhancing precip along the NY lake plains. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 Holiday valley is open, looks like a fresh couple inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 The wind is something else today. Almost looks like lake effect off Oneida lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Here ya go Matt. Since you think the weather is always trolling you, I thought this might make you feel better. The green blob is only over my head! Lol The 12Z GFS trolls all of us on the lake plain from Rochester east. This is turning into a real yawner. I got a big 0.6 inch yesterday. That makes how many dustings, Matt, and how many more to go? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Rochester’s best chance is behind the clipper in a gentle north flow. Could be good for an inch or two. Hey. I’m desperate over here! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: The 12Z GFS trolls all of us on the lake plain from Rochester east. This is turning into a real yawner. I got a big 0.6 inch yesterday. That makes how many dustings, Matt, and how many more to go? 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Rochester’s best chance is behind the clipper in a gentle north flow. Could be good for an inch or two. Hey. I’m desperate over here! Lol Back to hoping on lake effect after a synoptic trolling? Risky. Many of the models are trying to show some enhancement along the south shore though. So who knows... Oh, And the Sizzle is already several degrees above forecasted high and everyone else. For a place with lots of different weather, it sure is predictable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 The GFS pattern is extremely active, we should hit on 1/2 of those waves. That's a big synoptic snowstorm type pattern if it aligns right. Tons of gulf moisture with wave after wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Monday may end up snowier than Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 @lakeeffectkid383 taking the under on this map, we're close to the 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS pattern is extremely active, we should hit on 1/2 of those waves. That's a big synoptic snowstorm type pattern if it aligns right. Tons of gulf moisture with wave after wave. It’s active. But we need one to catch and it’s tough to catch. It’s a swift flow and we’ll lose our block. I think it looks like more of the same- good for the Lake Effect Elevation areas. BS for the rest of us. But at least it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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