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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I saw that. Seriously, the Cuse manufactures its own heat.

The Sizzle will not be denied!   Heading down to NYC area to visit relatives for a couple days so I'll miss tonight's snowfall here. It'll probably be the bomb since myself and you, the Sizzle King, will both be out of area. ;)

Edit: flakes are starting to fall here.

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Perfect setup for Chautuaqua ridge. going to  be foot+ down there 

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy=

I was just coming to post this exact view. Perfect set up for the micro climate there. Huron adding moisture, uplift, the winds won’t shred that. I’ve been saying for 5 days- over a foot on the ridge. Maybe 18”+. 

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Models start to develop a great bit of uncertainty to end the week
and into the start of next weekend. At odds are the timing and
placement of the dislodge of abnormally cold polar air. The past few
weeks cold air has been building across Alaska and northern Canada.
ENS and NAEFS anomalies place the 1000 to 850 hPa temperature layer
across southern Alaska near -3 to -3.5 SD below normal. The 00Z
ECMWF, and some of it`s ensemble members are much quicker and
farther south with the dislodge of this polar airmass than the
12Z GFS model. A quicker and deeper, and colder trough carving
into the central US next weekend would likely lead to the
evolution of a much stronger synoptic system and then lake
effect event response, than the slower and not as deep solution
of the GFS. For now will lean towards NBM for Friday...with just
low chance PoPs to start the first weekend of December.
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