sferic Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Your neighbor here in Cicero where i Just relocated to. Clay and Cicero similar snow wise, right? Also, what do you mean by fake snow? Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, sferic said: Your neighbor here in Cicero where i Just relocated to. Clay and Cicero similar snow wise, right? Also, what do you mean by fake snow? Jeff High ratio lake effect snow on a northerly flow..Here today, gone tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Three houses I own, one in Lynbrook in Nassau County, one in Liberty in Sullivan County and one now in Cicero (Ononangda County.) After T day turkey in Liberty later heading for Cicero this evening since LES kicking in. Kitchen update being redone so just a mini fridge and mini microwave there Takeout 1-2 miles away, hope my AWD SVU will handle roads up there well but I heard with 3-6 inches it shouldn't be too bad to go out ( hope so) Learning about the sweets pots of where heavier snows fall, almost like the Heavier snows for NYC are usually to the North and West of the city Jeff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just scored 7 touchdowns with 3 INT in the turkey bowl for MVP! Happy thanksgiving all and GO BILLS! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Tues/wed time frame holds some intrigue.. Especially if we can get a track like that.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Right on the 3-4 and 4-6” line. Would sign up for that in a heartbeat. Yeah a chance for some convergent winds that may allow the bands to back a little for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 6-11 inches for Chautuaqua ridgeline NYZ019-252000- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0008.211126T0600Z-211127T1200Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 649 AM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as high as 40 mph Friday afternoon and evening. * WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and Cortland counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 9 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures start off in the low to mid 30s Friday morning, before falling into the upper 20s Friday evening, then low to mid 20s overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: High ratio lake effect snow on a northerly flow..Here today, gone tomorrow lol It's also a term used by the coasties when sneering at our abundant snowfall. Or when i get momentarily disgusted with another LES band that mocks me by being a few miles north, or west, or south. Which is often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 So looking at the hrrr more in detail, we should have some steady rain starting early in the morning with temps in the upper 30s to around 40, around 10am lower elevations E/SE of Ontario should be flipping, temps still in the mid 30s, by 2ish we should mostly be below freezing, 4-5 pm in the 20s and falling..Hrrr ends precipitation around 1-2 am..So a good 10-12 hours of accumulating snow verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 hours ago, sferic said: Three houses I own, one in Lynbrook in Nassau County, one in Liberty in Sullivan County and one now in Cicero (Ononangda County.) After T day turkey in Liberty later heading for Cicero this evening since LES kicking in. Kitchen update being redone so just a mini fridge and mini microwave there Takeout 1-2 miles away, hope my AWD SVU will handle roads up there well but I heard with 3-6 inches it shouldn't be too bad to go out ( hope so) Learning about the sweets pots of where heavier snows fall, almost like the Heavier snows for NYC are usually to the North and West of the city Jeff Hey, Jeff! They take fantastic care of the roads here. Something I found amusing when I first moved here is how almost everybody stakes their driveways so the plows don't destroy their yards. It also lead to the excitement of my first winter knowing that "there is enough snow here to actually need stakes so you can find your driveway." Despite the past couple Winters being sort of disappointing, there have still been weeks where having the stakes have helped. The sweet spots vary based on wind direction and speed. Some Winters are better for different areas depending on the pattern and if the same flow keeps setting up. Our area of the county from Baldwinsville to Clay to Cicero does the best in general... especially since we can get the remnants of strong Westerly bands as they shift on a WNW flow. We do the best from Multi-lake connections (when Huron and Georgian Bay add extra juice) and from lake enhanced snows when Lows sit off the New England coast. Alberta clippers can add fun as well. These have all been generally lacking though the past couple years. Hopefully that "pattern" breaks this year. Regardless, you will find it much more snowy here than New York City! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 hours ago, sferic said: Three houses I own, one in Lynbrook in Nassau County, one in Liberty in Sullivan County and one now in Cicero (Ononangda County.) After T day turkey in Liberty later heading for Cicero this evening since LES kicking in. Kitchen update being redone so just a mini fridge and mini microwave there Takeout 1-2 miles away, hope my AWD SVU will handle roads up there well but I heard with 3-6 inches it shouldn't be too bad to go out ( hope so) Learning about the sweets pots of where heavier snows fall, almost like the Heavier snows for NYC are usually to the North and West of the city Jeff I forgot to mention that by far the most frustrating thing about living in this area if you're a cold weather person is the southerly winds that torch Syracuse. See today for example...39 degrees....the second the wind shifted from the south, there is a 5 degree...10 degree spike in temps. Drives me bonkers. I hate having the mountains directly to the south, as they lead to downsloping. If there's a southerly wind, you can almost guarantee Syracuse becomes the sizzle capital of Upstate New York. (As is the case today.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Matt, Any worse then on Long Island winds going from Northeast to Southeast? Hopefully I'll see 6 inches in Cicero between Late tonight and Saturday afternoon when I leave I have cameras mounted so I can always "see" the weather from Cicero wherever i am and same with two other houses Now do I dare go into outdoor hot tub owners left ( brand new). Heard it's awesome but can't imagine walking out from it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, sferic said: Matt, Any worse then on Long Island winds going from Northeast to Southeast? Hopefully I'll see 6 inches in Cicero between Late tonight and Saturday afternoon when I leave I have cameras mounted so I can always "see" the weather from Cicero wherever i am and same with two other houses Now do I dare go into outdoor hot tub owners left ( brand new). Heard it's awesome but can't imagine walking out from it There's a couple guys on here that enjoy the hot tub while it's snowing outside. I've done it before... it's relaxing and then exhilarating. It's part of your hazing process to life in the Great Lakes...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: There's a couple guys on here that enjoy the hot tub while it's snowing outside. I've done it before... it's relaxing and then exhilarating. It's part of your hazing process to life in the Great Lakes...lol Gonna be fun, have the driveway markers for snow blowing, not plowing. $385 for the season I have a problem with lawn care $1,800 for lawn cuts ( 27 cuts or so) and weed killer and grass seed But for Landscaping they want $2,500 to trim hedges , bushes, plants etc, then another 1200 each for spring cleanup and fall cleanup I pay $1,500 for EVERYTHING on Long Island and in the Catkskills I cut my own grass Recommendations taken happily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 While the airport is at 50, it looks like our area in Northern Onondaga county is remaining in the low to mid 40s. I have seen that happen numerous times , especially in winter. The snow cover/retention is MUCH better in our communities than Syracuse itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Localized higher totals are possible. The greatest totals expected on the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Model soundings suggesting that most of the lake-induced convective depth will be within the favored dendritic growth zone which will help to improve snow ratios with time as we move through the day Friday. The period of most organized lake snows is expected to be during the day Friday and into early evening as background synoptic moisture interact with increasing lake processes. Snowfall totals should easily exceed 6 inches in favored higher terrain areas east/southeast of the lakes with localized amounts near a foot quite possible, particularly along the Chautauqua Ridge where additional enhancement to snowfall totals is expected for the Chautauqua Ridge with most mesoscale guidance suggesting an upstream connection to Lake Huron. With enhanced amounts expected off Lake Erie will issue a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua county with the highest amounts focused along the Chautauqua Ridge. Winter Weather advisories will be issued for Southern Erie and Cattaraugus counties. The highest amounts here will be across the higher terrain, and it is not out of the question that far southern portions of Erie and northwest portions of Cattaraugus county could see localized amounts near a foot as well. Without the help of an upstream connection for Lake Ontario amounts should be a bit lower than off Lake Erie, but not by much. Winter weather advisories will be issued for the Tug Hill area east of Lake Ontario, then curving down through northern Cayuga and Wayne counties. The heaviest amounts will be focused on the Tug Hill, localized amounts near a foot could also occur depending on how long favorable upslope flow occurs before the flow turn more northwesterly. Outside of the lake areas, Friday will be windy with gusty westerly winds of 30-40 mph that will generate wind chill values in the teens and lower 20s that will be accompanied by some snow showers that could accumulate up to an inch or two. Blowing snow will create visibility issues at times, especially for areas where bursts of heavier snow occur and lake effect areas. Wind gusts could be locally enhanced along the higher terrain and closer to the Lake Ontario shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 As I suggested, earlier in the week, this looks more and more like an orographic event. I still like the ridge for over a foot. The radar is going to be fun to watch. I fear anyone along the lake plain will be disappointed. The MESO models continue to trim expectations for the Rochester area. Syracuse and especially the hills just south are still the wild card in my mind. Anyway, happy Thanksgiving you all. It’s been a rough year for me but I’m amazed at how much I still have to be thankful for. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: There's a couple guys on here that enjoy the hot tub while it's snowing outside. I've done it before... it's relaxing and then exhilarating. It's part of your hazing process to life in the Great Lakes...lol Hot tub in the snow is ideal. Get yourself some heat traks if you don’t wanna walk through the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Brutal cold in weenie land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Not the trend anyone hoped for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Not the trend anyone hoped for Are you surprised? Higher elevations have snow this morning. The maritimes of Upstate? Nassomuch....Lake effect looks way less impressive. My guess is strong winds will shred lake effect as well. Windy days are rarely a good thing for LES. I am actually glad I am in Tennessee today so I don't experience a disappointment. Hoping to come home to snow on the ground Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Only 9 days away.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 2" this morning in Cazanovia. Looks like I might jackpot.. I think ratios go way up overnight tonight so I'm thinking the higher elevations East Southeast of Syracuse may end up with 10 to 12" of snow by noon tomorrow. Lower elevations look to get 4 to 8". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 I’m not sure what expectations are for this. Channel 9 has been downplaying this event right along forecasting 1-3 inches total on the lake plain. I still have to get outdoor decorations up so I really don’t want to get buried yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 2" this morning in Cazanovia. Looks like I might jackpot.. I think ratios go way up overnight tonight so I'm thinking the higher elevations East Southeast of Syracuse may end up with 10 to 12" of snow by noon tomorrow. Lower elevations look to get 4 to 8". Congrats and enjoy! I really need to move to a higher elevation... But you might want to check on the spelling of your community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Sizzlecuse’s temperature actually went up last hour, surprise, surprise! I’m at 36 right now and the precipitation is very light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’m not sure what expectations are for this. Channel 9 has been downplaying this event right along forecasting 1-3 inches total on the lake plain. I still have to get outdoor decorations up so I really don’t want to get buried yet. They ALWAYS downplay snow totals. But, it's the better route to go with how things have set up the past couple years. Plus, strong winds rarely allow for good LES, especially closer to the lake as everything gets blown overhead and way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Sizzlecuse’s temperature actually went up last hour, surprise, surprise! I’m at 36 right now and the precipitation is very light. I saw that. Seriously, the Cuse manufactures its own heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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