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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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5 hours ago, Polarbear said:

I can vouch for that. I was on the thruway near the Warner’s service plaza heading East this morning around 4ish and from there to about exit 36 was pretty nasty.  Watch another semi start to jack knife trying to get off for 690 but saved it. Seemed as though the thruway was caught off guard.

Yeah, we got hit well in the Western and Northwestern Syracuse burbs!

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Friday is shaping up to a be a wintry day with blustery west to
northwest winds (20-30 mph most areas and gusting toward 35-40 mph
near Lake Ontario) and lake effect snow for w-nw flow areas.
Compared to the last lake event we just finished up, there is better
large scale forcing and certainly more deeper moisture which will
result in greater coverage of the lake effect and bring additional
snow from upslope more into play. Otherwise instability is pretty
similar with lake EQLs increasing over 10-15kft for a time later
Friday into Friday evening before inversions fall and deeper
moisture begins to pull away. Upstream connections are hinted at
again, but this time more so into the Lake Erie activity with nw
flow off Lake Huron. Forecast soundings indicate good portion of
lake convective layer will be in the DGZ, so snow will be higher
SLR, maybe topping out 15:1. This combined with the gusty winds will
also result in some blowing snow especially later Friday into Friday
night so that leads to bigger impact. At first glace, seems pretty
certain we will eventually need advisories for this event Friday
into Friday night for areas off both lakes favored by W-NW flow.
CIPS analogs agree, suggesting high-end advy amounts off both lakes.
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First thoughts (and usual caveat that I suck and am terrible at this) is that Thurs-Saturday look interesting…..for inland elevated areas. The winds will be a bit too strong and the general air will be a bit too dry for much along the south shore. 
I could see ski country, south of Buffalo, coming in with 1-2 feet. Buf and Roc 1-3”. 
A swift NW flow just doesn’t really hit many of us. Syracuse could be a wild card though. 

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Boo. Does anybody want to go to Tennessee in my place? @BuffaloWeather? You could float in a pool in mid 50 degree temps?

@Syrmax? You could find higher sizzle...

@DeltaT13? There might be some strong wind gusts?

Takers? Anybody?

I'll be headed to NYC to see relatives on Friday/Saturday so i'm sure that THIS WILL BE THE BIG ONE.  ;) 

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