wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Euro had a wrap around regime with the 2nd cold front, next weekend fwiw.. Obviously can't take the numbers at full face value.. Canadian was all Lake effect behind that front.. Week out, it will obviously change..Got my maps out for the day.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Latest CPC D 6-10 outlook.. D 8-14 neutral.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I was thinking that I didn’t remember it as an ‘early’ storm. Still, one for the books. Incredible stuff! Worthy of a whole month of remembrance. Lol When I saw BGM post it yesterday, I was a bit baffled at first. I actually had to check the date on my computer because I was like, "I don't think it was this early???" Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Northern Onondaga County/Extreme Southern Oswego county is by far one of the most frustrating lake effect zones to live in. We went from being "just a bit too north" to now being "just a bit too south" for lake effect snows on the models. The Rgem gives us hope though. Hopefully it's not too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2016..and I believe 2018 were blockbuster around this time. 2016 before Thanksgiving we ended up with like 30" of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 BUF's recent discussion actually seems pretty interesting for this upcoming week. I found this one part interesting...Thundersnow??? Contacting Jim Cantore... Lake parameters get a bit more favorable Monday night into Tuesday as slightly colder air aloft (850 mb temperatures near -11c) pass over the lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels improve to over 15k as moisture profiles continue to improve, but some of this takes into consideration upstream priming from Lake Huron/Georgian Bay/Lake Superior. Boundary layer flow will turn northwest 300-310 degrees during this time resulting in a shorter fetch across the lakes which will likely limit snowfall rates to a half inch per hour or less which is suggested by the latest HREF output. Would not rule out the possibility of thunder/lightning with a cap of at least 15k feet and the -10c isotherm near 5k feet, some of the stronger elements within the multiple lake plumes could support electrification. Most mesoscale guidance suggesting lake bands will be oscillating within the northwest flow making snow accumulation forecast a bit more challenging. Off lake Ontario, the lake snows will likely spray most of the south shore counties from Niagara over to Oswego with the likelihood for the greatest totals across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, although localized higher end totals could end up pretty much anywhere across this corridor, including Rochester depending on how much oscillation occurs. Off Lake Erie, the northwest flow regime would favor the Chautauqua Ridge and Southern Erie with the greater snowfall amounts. Gustier winds Monday night along with the falling snow may also bring some visibility issues. Will continue to highlight this event in the HWO product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Wow, that cold air coming in is deeper than I thought. Looks like you Buffalo guys are already down to 40ish and it's already snowing in Wellsville and Jamestown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 The last few runs of the medium range guidance have exhibited a fairly large degree of variance with the forward speed of this next system...though a general model consensus suggests a somewhat faster arrival time. With this in mind have brought a chance of rain showers a bit deeper into our area Thanksgiving afternoon...though the best precipitation probabilities still look to hold off until Thanksgiving night...when enough moisture and forcing now appear present to support widespread likely PoPs. With our area remaining on the warm side of this system Thursday... expect highs on Thanksgiving to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s...with temps then falling off into the upper 20s to mid 30s Thanksgiving night following the passage of this system`s cold front. The influx of colder air will also help force snow showers to mix in with the rain Thanksgiving night. After that...our region looks to be dominated by a seasonably cold cyclonic westerly to west-northwesterly flow through the rest of this period...with the much more consistent ECMWF package favored. This will result in a return to somewhat below normal temps along with renewed lake effect potential east and east-southeast of the lakes...and a general chance of rain and snow showers elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 We shall see... I hope this pans out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 I hate this set up so freaking much. I feel like we have seen this early season NW flow repeatedly in the last 3 years. Snow north and south while Buffalo gets a dry run of days, even sunny at times, and invariably we get a mild-up for a couple of weeks to put us even further behind the seasonal average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Nasty snow squall rolling in off Lake Huron. Lots of lightning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 First weenie run of 2021-2022...over my hood! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Rgem fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Today should be my first LES experience. Enjoy it! I’m hoping for a major event soon for a chase out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 I would take that, puts me in the 3-6 inch category. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Buf hits rochester with its first headline of the season without any support from any models. Ballzy . I’ll be going much lower on this one. I’ll be grateful to have my first dusting. Wolfie looks to be in ok position for a quick few. Maybe Revracer in Hannibal. I’d suspect that Roc and SYR just get after spray. But ya never know with these! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Buf hits rochester with its first headline of the season without any support from any models. Ballzy . I’ll be going much lower on this one. I’ll be grateful to have my first dusting. Wolfie looks to be in ok position for a quick few. Maybe Revracer in Hannibal. I’d suspect that Roc and SYR just get after spray. But ya never know with these! It's lightly snowing at my house right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: It's lightly snowing at my house right now. That’s a good thing always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 6 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Today should be my first LES experience. I am excited for you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I would take that, puts me in the 3-6 inch category. The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Well after just looking at 6Z Rgem and Nams, I can see why Syracuse mets made that map. I wish WNW and NW flow wasn't always so "up in the air".... literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I would take that, puts me in the 3-6 inch category. Map probably good if the banding sets up "further north" than modeling. Hope its wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Map probably good if the banding sets up "further north" than modeling. Hope its wrong. It seems like some models are focusing on a WNW dominant band that has more of a Westerly component, while some are focusing on a WNW band with a more NWly component...with us between. Hopefully it will be a "blend" with the band focusing on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better... Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 Looks pretty good for those that get hit with NW flow the next 10 days or so. Couple decent events. I don't see any synoptic hits just lake effect behind cold fronts. I like the end of the GEFS, lets hope it stays like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Euro consistent with the wrap around W/NW flow this upcoming weekend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Looking north to me: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 From NE forum: Model gudiance has punted very early December for a few days now....we're gonna get a full torch for a few days there. But they are pretty adamant about rebuilding the Aleutian ridging into the WPO region by about Dec 7-9 or so. That should set the stage for some cold air bleeding down into northern CONUS and get some winter wx threats. If that 2nd paragraph is true December might be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. Yeah, I am thinking 3 inches for many of us in this area. Seeing some snow flurries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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