Syrmax Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: The one good thing is the CFS almost always show torch.... lol.... But does look much worse than what they were showing. I think winters are lost anymore. It's quite sad. It's mid November...let's not throw in the towel just yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: It's mid November...let's not throw in the towel just yet. It's funny seeing people already throwing the towel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny seeing people already throwing the towel I'm not throwing in the towel, and I'm not snowman19. I'm glad you're amused. I have said it many times that as long as we have this raging Pacific Jet, that we have had for years, our winters are mostly going to suck. The cold air yet again settling over Alaska is not helping the cause. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm not throwing in the towel, and I'm not snowman19. I'm glad you're amused. I have said it many times that as long as we have this raging Pacific Jet, that we have had for years, our winters are mostly going to suck. The cold air yet again settling over Alaska is not helping the cause. I guess our definition of sucking is different . My average down here is 28 inches. Your average is 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 The vortex breaks down at end of GEFS, lets hope we keep seeing that. We also don't see a really strong PV, this will allow bouts of arctic air to circle around to our area, lets hope we keep seeing that as well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I guess our definition of sucking is different . My average down here is 28 inches. Your average is 100? We've gone over this the past couple winters. The "average" here is 130 inches, so when the past couple winters have been 70 to 80 inches, that is well below usual. Plus, lake effect snow melts in torchy weather waaaaaay faster than synoptic snow. When you move to a lake effect snow belt for snow, it's pretty underwhelming when there is no cold to actually produce what you're excited to move there for originally. It's hard to explain, but the climate since living here really isn't much different than the I-95 corridor. It's just 5,000 times more dustings that melt the second the sun comes out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 No stoicism here. Just wait until you see a predicted storm crumble inside of 24 hours- then you’ll see real devastation. Lol. People be lining up on the bridge. And I’ll be first. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 More favorable conditions for lake effect will then arrive very late Monday and Monday night as slightly colder air aloft overspreads the lakes...background synoptic moisture deepens/inversion heights rise for a time...and upstream connections to Lake Huron/Georgian Bay potentially become better established. This said...the low level flow also looks to become increasingly northwesterly through this period...which will result in a shortening fetch across the lakes and the lake bands also moving around a bit more than what previous model guidance had advertised. Taking all these factors into consideration...feel that a period of potentially advisory-worthy snows appears to be the most likely outcome east-southeast and southeast of both lakes late Monday into Monday night...with the best chances for these found across Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties southeast of Lake Ontario. With this in mind...have maintained a mention of this in the HWO. As the bands migrate further south...some of the accumulating snows will also likely overspread the Niagara to Monroe county corridor Monday night... where somewhat lower amounts of 1-3" will be possible where snow showers are more persistent. Outside of the main lake effect areas... expect a few scattered lighter snow showers with otherwise mainly dry and cold weather prevailing Monday night. Lows will mostly range through the 20s...except across interior portions of the North Country where readings may dip into the mid-upper teens. Next chances of precipitation arrives Thursday night as the next longwave trough moves into the Great Lakes with an associated sharp cold front. Precipitation could mix with wet snow across higher terrain later Thursday night as colder air arrives behind the front. Post cold frontal airmass Friday into Saturday will be cold enough for a typical westerly flow lake effect regime east of the lakes with the likelihood for accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 My feeling is this is going to be too much of NW flow for us in Northern Onondaga county. Here's BGM's take though: Monday evening, we have around a six hour window for a lake band to set up along the Thruway with persistent westerly flow off of Lake Ontario. Lapse rates will be steepening with ongoing cold air advection, and weak instability will be maximized amid a deepening snow growth zone. This indicates a good potential for some heavier bursts of snow into the night and a few inches of snow across the Thruway corridor and around the Syracuse metro before midnight. After midnight, the upper trough swings through, with with a shift to more northwest than westerly flow. This should help our band migrate southward towards the Finger Lakes, and as we lose the long fetch off of Lake Ontario, we may turn over more to a multi-band structure. Soundings continue to show pretty robust flow and a fairly deep, nearly saturated snow growth zone the rest of the night. So, some heavier snowfall rates and squall- like activity could be possible through the pre-dawn hours. An additional couple of inches will be possible southeast immediately of Lake Ontario, towards the northern Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 ...and their newest maps would coincide with my concern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Seems like the colder air is rushing in sooner on Monday and lake effect will perk up faster than expected. I could see there being some good brief widespread bursts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some of the climate numbers are insane. Saw this posted in NYC forum. Its moving so rapidly the last 10 years its insane. NYC average DJF 30 year climate normals…. 1991-2020….2020s….36.2 1981-2010…..2010s….35.1 1971-2000…..2000s…34.7 1961-1990…..1990s….33.9 At the current rate, in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA. Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. Not to be a debbie “upper” but snowfall has gone up over much of the same period. If things keep going at the same rate.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 lol..look how my forcefield pushes the snowband to the west...it literally curves to the south. Lake effect snow in northern Onondaga county is so stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: We've gone over this the past couple winters. The "average" here is 130 inches, so when the past couple winters have been 70 to 80 inches, that is well below usual. Plus, lake effect snow melts in torchy weather waaaaaay faster than synoptic snow. When you move to a lake effect snow belt for snow, it's pretty underwhelming when there is no cold to actually produce what you're excited to move there for originally. It's hard to explain, but the climate since living here really isn't much different than the I-95 corridor. It's just 5,000 times more dustings that melt the second the sun comes out. I would take 5000 dustings than 1 big Blizzard and that's it for the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Not to be a debbie “upper” but snowfall has gone up over much of the same period. If things keep going at the same rate.... My average did go up last year to 30 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Noooo. Keep the dustings and give me one big one. All in for a big one. I don’t even care if it melts in 3 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Noooo. Keep the dustings and give me one big one. All in for a big one. I don’t even care if it melts in 3 days. Same here all about the big one. Happy 1 year binghamton crew. craziest synoptic storm I've ever seen in Upstate. 40-45" across areas just west of Bing with 3-5"+ rates. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 3 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Not to be a debbie “upper” but snowfall has gone up over much of the same period. If things keep going at the same rate.... Yep 30 years averages are up across the board. I'm all about getting a big storm regardless if it stays or not, but for those that like snow retention like @TugHillMatt a big storm and a big melt doesn't cut it and that's what we've been getting the last 10 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Yawn fest around here next week. Canadian has been holding idea of a marginal LES setup the week after Thanksgiving, so some scraps to keep me entertained. Good Luck to the LO folks next few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Same here all about the big one. Happy 1 year binghamton crew. craziest synoptic storm I've ever seen in Upstate. 40-45" across areas just west of Bing with 3-5"+ rates. The mother of all defo zones. It had a life of its own. In my mind, 40” of synoptic is equal to like 60” of LES. Just nutty that storm. The NWS could’ve gotten some use out of their crazy new snowfall scale. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Only kbuf has the scale that high lol The rest of the east coast maxes out at 30"-36", would of needed an extra color lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Only kbuf has the scale that high lol The rest of the east coast maxes out at 30"-36", would of needed an extra color lol I think the DC office should use it too...for tenths of an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Pretty far north on HRDPS. Pretty far south on 3k. These are often forecasted too far south. My pick is north. Good luck Wolfie and Freak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Same here all about the big one. Happy 1 year binghamton crew. craziest synoptic storm I've ever seen in Upstate. 40-45" across areas just west of Bing with 3-5"+ rates. This storm happened on 12/16/21. You’re a month early on this anniversary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pretty far north on HRDPS. Pretty far south on 3k. These are often forecasted too far south. My pick is north. Good luck Wolfie and Freak. That's before it transitions to NW winds...which some models aren't showing much of. If, and once that happens, we know it could be anywhere from Oneida to Canandaigua that gets under the main band (if it actually transitions) Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This storm happened on 12/16/21. You’re a month early on this anniversary. Don't blame him. BGM NWS was already posting pictures and discussion of it on their Social Media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Don't blame him. BGM NWS was already posting pictures and discussion of it on their Social Media. Oh that’s bizarre. They probably don’t even remember the right date. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Oh that’s bizarre. They probably don’t even remember the right date. Lol. I was thinking that I didn’t remember it as an ‘early’ storm. Still, one for the books. Incredible stuff! Worthy of a whole month of remembrance. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Oh that’s bizarre. They probably don’t even remember the right date. Lol. They stated in their Twitter account that we are approaching the 1 year anniversary of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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