wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Well it only takes one event to have a near average November, we have 2 shots in the next 7 days behind 2 CFs (22nd, 27th), so we'll see lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: CSF weeklies are pretty much as bad as they come. Raging Pacific flat stream WITH a SE Ridge. Welcome back 20-21 winter. Hopefully we get a break in January because the rest of November and all of December look lost. But it’s the Long Range- they always suck. It was just a week ago that everyone was juiced (well, most everyone) for second half of November. The one good thing is the CFS almost always show torch.... lol.... But does look much worse than what they were showing. I think winters are lost anymore. It's quite sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Keep the faith guys. Don't fall into the doldrums trap. Winter hasn't even started yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 I like the look for Oswego/Syracuse for next event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Perhaps an opportunity for those of us on the southshore to get some accumulating snows early in the week. I'm not holding my breath... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Perhaps an opportunity for those of us on the southshore to get some accumulating snows early in the week. I'm not holding my breath... Yeah that band is going to be kicking somewhere SE of lake ontario. It wont last long though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 P.S. I am always amused by the inconsistencies between BUF and BGM. As we know, BUF always inflates and BGM always deflates... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: P.S. I am always amused by the inconsistencies between BUF and BGM. As we know, BUF always inflates and BGM always deflates... Just like Tom Brady 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 On the very rare off chance that somehow the stars align...Check out those couple tenth more max amounts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 NWS goes on the"high" end every event, it's nothing new lol Right now all they have his the Rgem as meso-models are not yet in range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Too bad the 12Z runs are ALREADY turning it into a Westerly wind event transitioning to a NW event, with the zone on these maps being screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 I see the 6Z GFS shows it as a complete NW wind event over the Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 So much wasted potential next 2 weeks. We have a ridge out west and a trough in the east but still too early to get cold enough air for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So much wasted potential next 2 weeks. We have a ridge out west and a trough in the east but still too early to get cold enough air for a snowstorm. It really shouldn't be "too early." Just another example of how much climate has changed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 You've gotta live above 1,000 feet these days... Check out that zone, North Syracuse weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Went back to look at the last 20 years from Dec-February in terms of temperature. You can see our snowfall is directly dependent on temperature (Makes sense). Out of the last 21 years we have had 4 below normal winters, 4 normal winters, and 13 above normal. We've had 6 straight above normal temp winters here in Upstate New York... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Our 4 below normal temp winters at KBUF 2002-2003: 111.3" 2010-2011: 111.8" 2013-2014: 129.9" 2014-2015: 112.9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Our next failure here? Lol Gfs has more of a robust lake response.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 6 straight above normal temp winters, that has to be broken soon. If we get a warm December I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 GFS has strong LES event for Tug 43" at 1:10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 cold air up in Alaska 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 6 straight above normal temp winters, that has to be broken soon. If we get a warm December I don't see that happening. Pretty easy to understand the winter frustration with 6 consecutive suck winters... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Pretty easy to understand the winter frustration with 6 consecutive suck winters... Some of the climate numbers are insane. Saw this posted in NYC forum. Its moving so rapidly the last 10 years its insane. NYC average DJF 30 year climate normals…. 1991-2020….2020s….36.2 1981-2010…..2010s….35.1 1971-2000…..2000s…34.7 1961-1990…..1990s….33.9 At the current rate, in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA. Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some of the climate numbers are insane. Saw this posted in NYC forum. Its moving so rapidly the last 10 years its insane. NYC average DJF 30 year climate normals…. 1991-2020….2020s….36.2 1981-2010…..2010s….35.1 1971-2000…..2000s…34.7 1961-1990…..1990s….33.9 At the current rate, in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA. Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. I wonder what the 10 year averages would be just for the past decade. It's probably even more pronounced. I was just thinking yesterday how the winters here have been reminiscent of my childhood in SE Pennsylvania. It's so mild with snow melting quickly after falling. There's definitely "more snow" here than there, but it goes about as quickly as it did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I wonder what the 10 year averages would be just for the past decade. It's probably even more pronounced. I was just thinking yesterday how the winters here have been reminiscent of my childhood in SE Pennsylvania. It's so mild with snow melting quickly after falling. There's definitely "more snow" here than there, but it goes about as quickly as it did there. 2000-2010 was a great period of winters in Upstate, probably the best since the 1970s so I'd assume 2010-2020 would be quite a bit above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 2010-2020 was decent snow wise in pulaski but it's the"stinkers" we all remember lol The area had 3 years below 100° which averaged out to a whopping 70".. Now the other 7 years averaged out to be 178", put them together and it's 140 something lol But the pulaski area only had 1 year in the 140s, it has either been over or way below.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 6 straight above normal temp winters, that has to be broken soon. If we get a warm December I don't see that happening. Ouch. That is ugly. What changed in the last 2 weeks? We all gotta move to Alaska. It used to be the Tug but now it’s Alaska. Lol. Whatcha ya gonna do? Just walked around a xmas tree farm and was wishing for the white. We will have some, just gotta hold tight and endure the doom porn of the LR models for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ouch. That is ugly. What changed in the last 2 weeks? We all gotta move to Alaska. It used to be the Tug but now it’s Alaska. Lol. Whatcha ya gonna do? Just walked around a xmas tree farm and was wishing for the white. We will have some, just gotta hold tight and endure the doom porn of the LR models for now. Nothing really changed, the last 2 weeks of November are going to be below average temp wise just bad luck and bad wind direction for majority here to be honest. Ski country across WNY and Tug will have 2 feet of snow in November which is above average. No synoptic threat to coincide with the cold air didn't help, just northern stream action. Northern stream action works in Jan/Feb not so much in mid November with climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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