wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 HWO Rain will transition to lake effect snow behind a strong cold front Monday evening and continue through Tuesday. Several inches of accumulation are likely. We are looking at a colder airmass with forecasted temps in the mid 20s Monday night and highs in the mid 30s Tuesday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 GFS is meh lol FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 37 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: I have a lot of learnin' to do. My folk would probably say "Low-vul" where low rhymes with glow Another one... it's PulaskEYE.... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GFS is meh lol FWIW I'm telling you...our base state weather in winter now is maritime air, a couple hours of lake effect behind a cold front...rinse, repeat. We get like a few weeks to month of some winter, but that's about it. I fully expect our weather to continue like this into December. Pacific Jet ruling the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Yup lol Even though that's not how it should be pronounced.. Pulaski was incorporated on April 26, 1832. Although the village takes its name after General Casimir Pulaski (/pəˈlæski/ pə-LAS-kee), area residents have traditionally pronounced it with a long "i" (/pəˈlæskaɪ/ pə-LAS-kye). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Another one... it's PulaskEYE.... lol To be clear....Pool-ask-eye is the real CNY pronunciation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Getting a nice period of snow here as the band sags south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Is the radar overshooting the location of the precip.? That solid band moved through here with like a couple minute burst...and, at 90 mph...lol I'm trying to figure out if "that was it" or if the actual band is still going to move through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 While the Canadian has the same concept as the GFS, it is more robust as winds veer from W-NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Yikes, the models aren't really showing any synoptic snow with the media-hyped "climate crisis" storm for next week. lol Unless you live in a snowbelt or on a mountain top, your snow chances aren't looking great. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! "Low" is actually pronounced with on "o" sound that rhymes with "how." Lol I was saying it as LOW as well, then got corrected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol I was saying it as LOW as well, then got corrected. Haha! I bet it makes the locals squirm when The Weather Channel pronounces their towns Pulaskeee and Lohhhville. (I personally like those pronunciations better...but then I grew up in Lancaster where any tourist or outside family said, Laaaaaaancaster. I think they do it on person for involuntary eye twitches...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol I was saying it as LOW as well, then got corrected. 26 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Haha! I bet it makes the locals squirm when The Weather Channel pronounces their towns Pulaskeee and Lohhhville. (I personally like those pronunciations better...but then I grew up in Lancaster where any tourist or outside family said, Laaaaaaancaster. I think they do it on person for involuntary eye twitches...) Is this true or something some crazy local start spreading around years ago? Named for Nicholas Low of Dutch decent, I don't think the Dutch treat L's differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said: Is this true or something some crazy local start spreading around years ago? Named for Nicholas Low of Dutch decent, I don't think the Dutch treat L's differently. Good question! I too have been corrected in both places if I don't say it those ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Blue Moon said: You mean when they pronounce it correctly? If you like those...try Chili NY. I have it good authority that it's not pronounced "chilly" as in the food or description of temperature. It's...wait for it... Ch-eye-Lie. Perhaps some of our local ROC people can confirm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 41 minutes ago, Syrmax said: If you like those...try Chili NY. I have it good authority that it's not pronounced "chilly" as in the food or description of temperature. It's...wait for it... Ch-eye-Lie. Perhaps some of our local ROC people can confirm. You would be correct 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 4 hours ago, Luke_Mages said: Is this true or something some crazy local start spreading around years ago? Named for Nicholas Low of Dutch decent, I don't think the Dutch treat L's differently. I can’t say anything. I’m from Delco in southeast Pa. I pronounce water “wooder” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I can’t say anything. I’m from Delco in southeast Pa. I pronounce water “wooder” Wersh basin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Are we entering the doldrums? I feel like we’re entering the doldrums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 A sharpening upper level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night with a cold airmass spreading into the Northern Plains to Mid-West. A surface low around 993mb will track from Northeastern Ontario to northern Quebec Sunday night into Monday. A strong cold front will track across western and north central NY Monday. Southwest winds will rapidly increase especially northeast of the Lakes with 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Rain will transition to snow, most likely across the higher elevations late Sunday night then elsewhere Monday morning. Strong cold air advection will bring 850mb temperatures to -10C by Monday afternoon. Lake effect showers will begin shortly after the cold front moves through a location. Mean wind will start off as southwest Monday afternoon - evening before winds veer to the northwest Monday night into Tuesday. Lake bands east-northeast of the Lakes Monday will shift southward, targeting southeast of the Lakes. The cold front Monday will result in falling temperatures Monday with highs in the morning especially across western NY. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s Monday night. Most locations will see snow due to the lake bands veering from the southwest early Monday to the northwest by Monday night. Several inches of snowfall is likely east-southeast of the Lakes due to a majority of time the flow will be westerly-northwesterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 3 hours ago, tombo82685 said: I can’t say anything. I’m from Delco in southeast Pa. I pronounce water “wooder” Um, yeah...we're gonna have to work on that before you come up here........... 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Are we entering the doldrums? I feel like we’re entering the doldrums. I think we're already in the doldrums when we spend the majority of the day discussing how to pronounce "i"s and "o"s in town names.... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Um, yeah...we're gonna have to work on that before you come up here........... I think we're already in the doldrums when we spend the majority of the day discussing how to pronounce "i"s and "o"s in town names.... Local met put up last winters total and it was 69”. Which by itself sucks but is even worse when you already got that dejavu feeling. I just can’t take the bait and switch shit. That pacific just plowing across the continent knocking down any and all ridges and valleys. oh well, that’s my bitching for the night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Local met put up last winters total and it was 69”. Which by itself sucks but is even worse when you already got that dejavu feeling. I just can’t take the bait and switch shit. That pacific just plowing across the continent knocking down any and all ridges and valleys. oh well, that’s my bitching for the night. Yep. Hey, you just gotta let it out sometimes. This is a safe space. lol I know we don't want to think, but as I have been saying I see this winter continuing as the past several have. We just can't seem to break the never-ending awful cold season Pacific jet. In learning from recent winters, as we see this same pattern setting up in November or December, we see it going on and on and on. If we can't get a big PNA ridge, it's going to be tough to get cold Canadian air to come down over the Great Lakes and give us Lake effect snow. Without the lakes, it's hard for us to get to normal, as we've seen the past couple winters. When we rely on a -NAO to give us the cold storms we need, it often ends up suppressing them and the East Coast gets those big storms (which we have seen lots this century.) -NAO relaxes...and we get a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 49 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Um, yeah...we're gonna have to work on that before you come up here........... I think we're already in the doldrums when we spend the majority of the day discussing how to pronounce "i"s and "o"s in town names.... Lol, well I’m up there Sunday. Going to take the Low out of Lowville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Local met put up last winters total and it was 69”. Which by itself sucks but is even worse when you already got that dejavu feeling. I just can’t take the bait and switch shit. That pacific just plowing across the continent knocking down any and all ridges and valleys. oh well, that’s my bitching for the night. Yea there is a potent jet extension right now which I believe is being fueled by the mjo stuck in the maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Long range looks worse and worse. Semi cold air but just nothing there, a waste of warm lake temps. Rather have it be warm and sunny. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 I wish I could lock this in AND have it actually happen for early next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 I am so glad the national media warned us of the climate crisis heading our way soon. Looks like a crazy weather day across the country. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 11 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Which by itself sucks but is even worse when you already got that dejavu feeling. My 1st post of the season and it's going to start out on the negative side of things. Could not agree more, I'm already getting that we are doomed kind of feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 CSF weeklies are pretty much as bad as they come. Raging Pacific flat stream WITH a SE Ridge. Welcome back 20-21 winter. Hopefully we get a break in January because the rest of November and all of December look lost. But it’s the Long Range- they always suck. It was just a week ago that everyone was juiced (well, most everyone) for second half of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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