DeltaT13 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 37 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I don’t know what to tell you. I’ve yet to see an ‘unmangled ’ flake. There’s been zero accumulations in Pittsford or Irondequoit. Dang, getting screwed on the East and North Sides I guess. I guess the one that confuses me most is Sunday night when it snowed steadily for about 4-5 hours (7pm-midnight) areawide as that sloppy disorganized low came through and I thought hit all of WNY. I have no idea how you didnt get snow from that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Dang, getting screwed on the East and North Sides I guess. I guess the one that confuses me most is Sunday night when it snowed steadily for about 4-5 hours (7pm-midnight) areawide as that sloppy disorganized low came through and I thought hit all of WNY. I have no idea how you didnt get snow from that setup. Yeah, I checked the webcam of Jines Restaurant and Park Ave. and it was definitely snowing there for hours...very wet stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Kbuf admittingly going with the higher end of the spectrum.. There also still looks to be lake-to-lake connection at this time from Lake Huron. In general advisory snow amounts of 3-6 inches are expected tonight and an advisory was issued. However, if the band locks in and persists longer than expected given the higher lake equilibrium levels and limited shear in the convective layer, it is certainly possible isolated warning amounts of 7" or more tonight could occur where westerly flow upslope is strongest on the Tug Hill Plateau. Going to leave a possible upgrade to later shifts as they can look at new data. As of right now though, should note that even the *current* forecast is on the highest end of NBM 95th percentile for snowfall and close to HREF max ensemble members. It will all depend on persistence of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I don’t know what to tell you. I’ve yet to see an ‘unmangled ’ flake. There’s been zero accumulations in Pittsford or Irondequoit. Or east in Ontario. We had some graupel on the ground for a couple hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Dang, getting screwed on the East and North Sides I guess. I guess the one that confuses me most is Sunday night when it snowed steadily for about 4-5 hours (7pm-midnight) areawide as that sloppy disorganized low came through and I thought hit all of WNY. I have no idea how you didnt get snow from that setup. We got mostly liquid from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 GFS for Monday/Tues has a little snow shower activity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Our old apartment 7 years ago today 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Dang, getting screwed on the East and North Sides I guess. I guess the one that confuses me most is Sunday night when it snowed steadily for about 4-5 hours (7pm-midnight) areawide as that sloppy disorganized low came through and I thought hit all of WNY. I have no idea how you didnt get snow from that setup. Yep. I recall it well. Walked my dogs at 7:30 and 10 pm, hoping to enjoy some flakes. Absolutely zero parachutes. All darts. Mangled flakes and icy rain drops. The only surface that had anything was a plastic garbage can top that had just enough ice to leave a trail if I ran my finger through it. Nothing on leaves or grass. Temp was 34. This was in Pittsford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Buf hit 66 yesterday and was at 65 at midnight. So back to back +18 high temp departures. To put that in perspective to get a -18 high departure the high would be 30 degrees, seems impossible in this climate. Long range looks up and down the next two weeks. I am starting to get worried about December with a terrible Pacific but still too far out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Foreign models have a little more robust lake response early next week, varying wind directions..GFS is more weak NW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Buf hit 66 yesterday and was at 65 at midnight. So back to back +18 high temp departures. To put that in perspective to get a -18 high departure the high would be 30 degrees, seems impossible in this climate. Long range looks up and down the next two weeks. I am starting to get worried about December with a terrible Pacific but still too far out at this point. Yeah... still not seeing much to get excited about for those of us outside the lake belts. Definitely seems like most of us will be heading into December facing an early deficit. Still waiting for the last of my leaves to fall so I can rake and be done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I want that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 While I don't think 2014 is walking through that door, I feel like there will be a good one in early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Decent soaker with the fropa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Not sure we're going to have enough of a clearing, but this would be cool to see: LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT: It's happening tonight--the longest lunar eclipse in more than 600 years. The best places to see it are North America and islands in the Pacific. At maximum, 97% of the Moon will fall into shadow, and the lunar disk will turn a beautiful shade of sunset red. Full story @ Spaceweather.com. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Our old apartment 7 years ago today Just realized the video ive seen on YouTube of someone shoveling snow off their roof was your house. I wish I was chasing back then. Couldn't imagine that much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 GFS with some decent wrap around/enhancement with the next system.. Monday, as the sfc low passes to our north it will send its cold front through the region. CAA will ramp up with temperatures quickly falling into the 30s as H850 temps drop to -7C/-9C across the eastern Great Lakes by days end. As this occurs, lake induced instability will increase with rain-snow changing over to snow with accumulating lake snows expected east and then southeast of the lake.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Just realized the video ive seen on YouTube of someone shoveling snow off their roof was your house. I wish I was chasing back then. Couldn't imagine that much snow That video was of a different house, but yes it was an insane amount of snow. It looked like out of a western USA ski resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 CPC December outlook.. Equal chances of above or below average.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 59 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: That's amazing. It's like 30 seasons' worth of snow for a lot of people. Reason why I'm moving up there. I realize my area gets shadowed, but give me a 2-3' lake effect powder keg and I'll be in glory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 55 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: What are your thoughts for tonight/tomorrow @TugHillMatt? Don't expect much. Our areas might get an inch, if that. The air is just too mild in the lower elevations. In Oswego, you'll often see the bands jump over the immediate Lakeshore. The area around Fulton to Mexico could see a couple inches. It's common for that area to "max out" compared to surrounding locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Weeklies looked fine, nothing showing big bitter cold blasts, but nothing saying torch. Generally normal temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 18z GFS showing a pretty unique set up. Holds the LP over New England for about 24 hours longer allowing moisture and cold to be pulled down over us. Keeping it spicy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Found some old videos from Nov 2014 Storm. Trimmed a few of them in chronological order so you can live through the storm in 3 minutes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Thunder snow in Erie pa 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Thunder snow in Erie pa Brother in law says he’s getting thunder snow out in s wales too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 not sure if this was posted, but this is probably the best annual snow map I have seen so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Brother in law says he’s getting thunder snow out in s wales too. yeah thats a good band 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Wish we were able to see this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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