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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

BuffaloWeather
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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Not certain why that solution could even be possible? There’s cold air to the west and north…since when does a northerly glow wrap in mild air? Answer? Never. Toss

Reason why it wraps in milder air is because the system closes off, so you basically shut off your cold air drain into the system.  Can see it on the h5 images. you have a full latitude trough that then cuts off and mild air works in. So the only cold air with the system is under the h5 low that is closed off. Now you don't close the low off, then you can drain cold air into the system.

 

 

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tombo82685
tombo82685

Just some morning musings here So we all know the torch is coming for the next 7 days most likely, it's a foregone conclusion with the deep -pna forming out west. You just aren't going to stop th

TugHillMatt
TugHillMatt

6 to 8 inches here overnight! I am on the leader board for a few days! 

BuffaloWeather
BuffaloWeather

Benny boy at Chestnut Ridge 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Speaking of sizzle, I see you have about 12 times more snowfall than we do on the season.... ;)

November looks roughly normal to me thusfar. Temps near norm and snow in the area, mainly hills. Thats typical..  You have to wait till December to get into the real sizzle.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

November looks roughly normal to me thusfar. Temps near norm and snow in the area, mainly hills. Thats typical..  You have to wait till December to get into the real sizzle.

Eh, I don't know. It was a nice, chilly day here...and then the southerly winds that I flipping hate kicked in and the temp continues to rise, rise, rise into the night.... 10 degrees warmer in the sizzlehellcuse compared to Rome

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This November is definitely more wintry then normal. We will have 4-5 snow events across Upstate this month. The focus is just across higher elevations and ski country. Some places in ski country will have had 2 feet already on the year by next week. The next 2 weeks favor W/NW flow for LES. The entrance point of the cold air is too far east for a SW flow. 

I think it's too soon to say it's more wintry than normal. Temps so far are a bit above normal. As we get closer to forecasted "cool air" it modifies. Any time we think we're done with warm air, we get surprise days back in the upper 50s and 60s. The average high for today is 48 and here we are easily and casually making it to the upper 50s in what was supposed to be "cooler."

If what is forecasted happens, then we may end up right around normal. I said about a month ago I was skeptical of getting a cold November because everything runs WARM these days. I hope we continue the step down next week into a colder regime with better snow chances. But, as we get closer, here we go again....mild, maritime air with cool, maritime air behind the system that doesn't cut it for those not in higher elevations.

We say it's abnormal for it to snow in November in the lower elevations, which is not true. It's "supposed" to snow in Upstate NY. The higher elevations will DEFINITELY do better at this time of year. But, I wouldn't say it's "wintrier than normal." Syracuse should have several inches by now, and averages about 10 inches for the month. If we can get some lake effect events, we might get there. But, the synoptic pattern has just been meh during winters of late. As several have mentioned, it's like the "base" pattern that we fall back into is stale, mild air with cold that somehow has to be manufactured. I hope it's just November being November...and that we don't see this as the pattern in the winter months to come.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think it's too soon to say it's more wintry than normal. Temps so far are a bit above normal. As we get closer to forecasted "cool air" it modifies. Any time we think we're done with warm air, we get surprise days back in the upper 50s and 60s. The average high for today is 48 and here we are easily and casually making it to the upper 50s in what was supposed to be "cooler."

If what is forecasted happens, then we may end up right around normal. I said about a month ago I was skeptical of getting a cold November because everything runs WARM these days. I hope we continue the step down next week into a colder regime with better snow chances. But, as we get closer, here we go again....mild, maritime air with cool, maritime air behind the system that doesn't cut it for those not in higher elevations.

We say it's abnormal for it to snow in November in the lower elevations, which is not true. It's "supposed" to snow in Upstate NY. The higher elevations will DEFINITELY do better at this time of year. But, I wouldn't say it's "wintrier than normal." Syracuse should have several inches by now, and averages about 10 inches for the month. If we can get some lake effect events, we might get there. But, the synoptic pattern has just been meh during winters of late. As several have mentioned, it's like the "base" pattern that we fall back into is stale, mild air with cold that somehow has to be manufactured. I hope it's just November being November...and that we don't see this as the pattern in the winter months to come.

The key is in his name: BuffaloWeather. Lol. I’m the same way. We just gotta wait a little longer. 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The key is in his name: BuffaloWeather. Lol. I’m the same way. We just gotta wait a little longer. 

With as often as he posts video, pics, and obs of snow in Hamburg, I feel like he should average 200 inches. Or, maybe it's just he's had closer-to-actual-normal winters than the Sizzle.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It keeps warming here, 65 degrees outside.

Beautiful evening. Had a mini bonfire with the neighbor.  Soon enough, it will be pool season with a raging Globar Wormimg (anyone remember that guy?) furnace and umbrella drinks, tiki torches!

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Diggin' that 0-1" here in the Great Void! 

 

3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Beautiful evening. Had a mini bonfire with the neighbor.  Soon enough, it will be pool season with a raging Global Warmimg furnace and umbrella drinks, tiki torches!

Oh, shut up.

You made sure I was sitting on the 0 line, didn't you???

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Oh, shut up.

You made sure I was sitting on the 0 line, didn't you???

Oh stop. We'll get our 100" of sub average snow, 0-1" at a time, even if it kills us!  Cuz that's what we do!  Your leaving for Turkey Festivities anyway. Soon, many snow come.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Oh stop. We'll get our 100" of sub average snow, 0-1" at a time, even if it kills us!  Cuz that's what we do!  Your leaving for Turkey Festivities anyway. Soon, many snow come.

I see that coming for tomorrow night into Friday as well. Looks like it hits the Tug, quickly jumps over us as winds turn NW and it hits the Auburn area. Looks very similar to this past Tuesday's conditions.

Maybe a repeat on next Monday night and Tuesday? #2 and 3 of 3431432 dustings?

Not sure where we're heading once we get to December. Seems like many question marks in the air. That Pacific Jet....ugh. But, perhaps a -NAO to fend it off. But, there are a couple runs of ugliness (for us) setting up over Alaska. We shall see...

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

We’ve yet to have our first flakes in Rochester. Looks like we wait a bit longer. 

Whaaat?  Really?  We had snow on three consecutive days. Most on the ground was .3” so far on Sunday night.  The squalls on Monday were impressive for the few minutes they lasted. 

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

The key is in his name: BuffaloWeather. Lol. I’m the same way. We just gotta wait a little longer. 

Technically he's in Hamburg. I'm in Buffalo, and we have had 3-4 bursts of flurries/snizzle, but adding all those together might total a half inch of snow. The airport and nearby suburbs have 3+ inches this season, but Buffalo itself has been wet, not white.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Whaaat?  Really?  We had snow on three consecutive days. Most on the ground was .3” so far on Sunday night.  The squalls on Monday were impressive for the few minutes they lasted. 

I don’t know what to tell you. I’ve yet to see an ‘unmangled ’ flake. There’s been zero accumulations in Pittsford or Irondequoit. 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The majority of
  the snow will occur over the southern Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  morning commute on Friday.
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