josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Fake news. We get Bo on here every once in a great while. Haven't seen Bo post in quite some time, him and I chatted a bunch in PM in the past but been MIA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, we are a bunch of LES weenies here...lol. My previous username on here was "blackrock" and I lived in the Muskegon/Spring Lake area. So I represented that little part of West Michigan. Lake effect snow has been greatly lacking in that area this decade, so maybe some have lost interest. In fact the average snowfall has dropped nearly 20 inches there! As buffalowx said, you are definitely welcome here, and many would probably enjoy talking with you during future events about how factors up in your area might aide in things down wind here. I love Gaylord...my wife and I almost moved there, but it "was too far north for her." Hmph. Wives. Lol Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Haven't seen Bo post in quite some time, him and I chatted a bunch in PM in the past but been MIA. Maybe he ended up finding his place way up in the clouds out west and has no internet? I hope he is well. 1 minute ago, josh_4184 said: Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. Hoosier was such a vital part of the sub and it almost seems like he has been "demoted?" Not sure what happened there. Seems like the Iowa/Illinois crew is the most active on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 It's looking like a decent convergence band will setup this evening through the overnight period.. Right now I would favor C Oswego county but it will be close.. Obviously this is just precipitation but you need precipitation to see snow (at least mix in) lol Preferably heavy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. Usually when you guys get lake effect we get it later on so its nice to have someone post about whats coming. We have a great group here, no mods and no issues at all. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Usually when you guys get lake effect we get it later on so its nice to have someone post about whats coming. We have a great group here, no mods and no issues at all. Sometimes Freak could use a moderator... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Maybe he ended up finding his place way up in the clouds out west and has no internet? I hope he is well. Hoosier was such a vital part of the sub and it almost seems like he has been "demoted?" Not sure what happened there. Seems like the Iowa/Illinois crew is the most active on there. I know what happened and it wasn't good. I'm in the AMX discord channel with a few posters here. Safe to say he won't be a mod going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Usually when you guys get lake effect we get it later on so its nice to have someone post about whats coming. We have a great group here, no mods and no issues at all. Sounds good ill chill over here when I do have time to get on. Nice being around other LES members again. BTW still snowing,, 1-2" per hr at the moment. Lakes really have come to life the past few hours with the weak trough passing though. Looks like about 5-6 otg hard to get a good measurement as its melting from underneath. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Sometimes Freak could use a moderator... I wonder where he is? He usually doesn't post until first flakes start falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Congrats on the first flakes everyone! Getting ours here in NE Ohio as well. Will most likely be switching to rain soon. Possible some light accums tonight. Glad to get the season started. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I wonder where he is? He usually doesn't post until first flakes start falling. He, Syrmax/Brian, and King/George have been quiet lately. Perhaps they're all in his basement building a catapult to fling me and my curse outta their zone to the hinterlands... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 51 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Sounds good ill chill over here when I do have time to get on. Nice being around other LES members again. BTW still snowing,, 1-2" per hr at the moment. Lakes really have come to life the past few hours with the weak trough passing though. Looks like about 5-6 otg hard to get a good measurement as its melting from underneath. We need a video. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 12z Wed and Thur.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 OT, but Is it me or did the hurricane season just crash at the end? I know it goes to Nov. 30th, but we are about average now and I thought predictions were significantly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 First snow of the season occurred over the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario earlier today. A couple inches of slushy snow fell on the Tug Hill. Lake effect, mainly in the form of rain, continues this afternoon. Upstream a sfc trough across the Niagara Peninsula will swing across by early this evening, shifting winds to more west/northwest and intensifying the lake effect over the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps falling to -6c this evening and sfc temps dropping back into the 30s, will not take long for the rain/snow to switch to snow at higher elevations this evening. Over-water instability very impressive tonight especially as shortwave over Michigan swings across the lower Great Lakes. Lake induced CAPES rise to over 1000j/kg and ELs surge above 20kft on Lake Erie and over 25kft on Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, flow starts out from northwest off Lake Erie and remains stationary through the night across the Southern Tier. Given this, appears this will be more of a Chautauqua county into Cattaraugus county higher terrain event. Cold enough though that even lower elevations inland from the Lake Erie shore will see some accumulation. Snow totals into early Wed should reach at least 3 inches with higher amounts of 5 inches across higher terrain and in most persistent bands. Some additional snow will occur into Wed morning as another shortwave drops across with still favorable instability in place. Given the closer proximity of the shortwave tonight and steady low-level flow and such high instability think advisory should work out. Off Lake Ontario, flow starts off the evening west-southwest then veers quickly to west-northwest behind the initial sfc trough. Soundings suggest favorable setup for portions of the Tug Hill much of the night, before winds become more northwest late tonight in wake of the shortwave moving through. Farther approach of the shortwave is a limiting factor as is winds shifting some to start, but think degree of instability and a period of stronger low-level convergence, upslope flow into the Tug Hill will make up for this. Similar amounts as Southern Tier, but with much more of a fetch of air modified by warmer waters of Lake Ontario, expect the rain/snow line to be sharp and snow amounts highly dependent on the terrain. Does appear late tonight into early Wednesday, some snow could occur at lower elevations of Oswego county at least farther inland from the Lake Ontario shore. Given this is the first lake effect event of the season and there is at least small potential to even overachieve in heavier snow, have put winter weather advisories up for lake effect snow across Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Wow, that "1 to 2 inch" coloration would extend into my area of Onondaga county. But, I am very skeptical...perhaps I will wake up to trace amounts/slushy dusting on cars and small bush leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Perhaps there's a chance.... maybe I can start dusting #1 of 434343293209 for the season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: It’s just a riot to me how these flip-flop around. Wasn’t it just a week ago that we were all excited for a great November? Lol. Always interesting. A good reminder to never take these LR products too seriously. Wouldn't worry about that because next 5-10 days is showing seasonable, no torch or anything so we will be fine. Cold weather will settle in about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 219 earlier today 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Who choose nov 2nd as first flakes day? Almost all of wny had their first today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 First flakes here too. Nowhere close to any accumulation though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Who choose nov 2nd as first flakes day? Almost all of wny had their first today Even parts of the GTA was able to snag some wet snow/ice pellets with the bands that made it from Huron/GB Is that weather discord open to anyone or is it invite only? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Even parts of the GTA was able to snag some wet snow/ice pellets with the bands that made it from Huron/GB Is that weather discord open to anyone or is it invite only? Its open to everyone but its not too much weather as it is other topics. Lots of politics/sports discussions. A few mods from here are on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 hours ago, dta1984 said: Congrats on the first flakes everyone! Getting ours here in NE Ohio as well. Will most likely be switching to rain soon. Possible some light accums tonight. Glad to get the season started. Where do you live on this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 GFS (12z) really wants to drop the hammer in 10 days…hi Rez Euro 12z is just in the outside of that time donut looks to be a similar setup…gfs wants us to have a poss storm and Euro looks like we would have a big LES set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 In Cassadaga, snowing like a mofo and sticking too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 I still kick myself for not taking the job in Springville. But we had some other reasons for choosing this area, non-weather related... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Still snowing 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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