BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 @tombo82685 This is probably Lowvilles strongest LES event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Looks like the strongest LES events are just west/southwest of Lowville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @tombo82685 This is probably Lowvilles strongest LES event Lol holy heck. Back in sepa that’s like two of my avg snowfalls in one event lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lowville has to be pretty high. They are just north of the perfect LES off of Ontario, have a ton of elevation and latitude. If Fulton averages 170" I would think Lowville would be around 200. Lowville the town and well my elev is 830-880. If I didn’t get downsloped off tuggies I’d say I’d probably be close to Fulton. But Fulton has uninterrupted moisture with no mtn shadows. Fultons issue would be marginal events being on Ontario plain would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Lowville the town and well my elev is 830-880. If I didn’t get downsloped off tuggies I’d say I’d probably be close to Fulton. But Fulton has uninterrupted moisture with no mtn shadows. Fultons issue would be marginal events being on Ontario plain would be my guess yeah looks like best spot is SW of Lowville. 5 miles SW and you average 200+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 I've probably driven through the tug more than anyone in central NY. I've made 50+ ADK trips through the tug lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: yeah looks like best spot is SW of Lowville. 5 miles SW and you average 200+ Yea there is a northern chateau camera there the vst groomer with an elev of like 1800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 10:16 AM, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF reported 1.7" yesterday. First snow of the season, besides the Trace on the 3rd. I had 2.1" yesterday. Temps are at +2.0@SouthBuffaloSteve Are you checking the temps at KBUF now with no sun/heating to see if they match up. If there is no difference now we can 100% chalk it up to urban heating. What would we consider today's conditions to show? Was inside most of day but thought I saw some sunny breaks? KBUF reported mostly cloudy all day. Tonight KBUF is running 3-5 degrees too warm per the map. Looking back to this weekend the 13/14 and 14/15 both saw days with thicker clouds, lake effect bands and general precip falling which should eliminate any UHI. While not as extreme of a variance KBUF was still the warmest spot overnight on those days by 1 - 1.5 degrees. On sunny days 2-3 degrees of UHI could be a possibility (yes? no?) but seeing as KBUF is ALWAYS the warmest location EVERY overnight, I really feel the sensor calibration is off by 1-2 degrees. The link tombo posted with those verification scores also suggests a similar margin of error possible with the KBUF sensor. Is it a hard ask for the NWS to do a calibration check/test? After two failed calibrations at Albany sounds like they did a full tune up of the temp sensor site. Don't forget KBUF had the calibration issue at the end of last summer so this would be strike two on the site. Have to appreciate that at least the Albany office is looking into their sensor errors, getting them corrected, and noting it in a Public Info Statement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Yeah, Lowville definitely doesn't get near 200 inches. Way too much downsloping. It averages about the same as here in the North Syracuse burbs. 130ish inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yea there is a northern chateau camera there the vst groomer with an elev of like 1800 West Turin, Ava, west Leyden all get in on that little tongue of the Tug that extends SE. All are SSW of Lowville. They all get huge amounts. I drive through them quite frequently in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Interesting look. It retrogrades a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Interesting look. It retrogrades a bit The storm has no where to go with the massive high to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 We'll get another one again someday... 7 years ago we were getting ready for this wild ride! ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM SILVER CREEK TO BATAVIA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: We'll get another one again someday... 7 years ago we were getting ready for this wild ride! ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM SILVER CREEK TO BATAVIA Never forget 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Never forget what do you use to edit your videos. I actually just found a memory card with all my nov 14 videos want to trim and splice a few of them together. looking for just something basic that doesn't put a big watermark on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: what do you use to edit your videos. I actually just found a memory card with all my nov 14 videos want to trim and splice a few of them together. looking for just something basic that doesn't put a big watermark on them. davinci resolve, its fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Interesting look. It retrogrades a bit Local Mets keep insisting that next Monday night and Tuesday we’re getting a significant storm…models disagree…are the ensembles showing a different outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Amazing video summary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Never forget GOAT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Local Mets keep insisting that next Monday night and Tuesday we’re getting a significant storm…models disagree…are the ensembles showing a different outcome? All the ingredients are in place. But it’s a tricky one. Ensembles have been supportive to an extent. I’m kinda 50-50 on this one. I think the ADKs/ New England have a much better shot. But I’m not counting us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: All the ingredients are in place. But it’s a tricky one. Ensembles have been supportive to an extent. I’m kinda 50-50 on this one. I think the ADKs/ New England have a much better shot. But I’m not counting us out. Best shot would be for retrograding low being caught under the block ala 6z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Negative tilt. Dropped south a bit. Can it ‘catch’ in time to give WNY/CNY wrap? Anyone east of 81 is in a better position IMHO. But that’s true with all EC development. Wild card is the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 nws buffalo map for thurs-fri lake effect 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Local Mets keep insisting that next Monday night and Tuesday we’re getting a significant storm…models disagree…are the ensembles showing a different outcome? Some Potential there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 The hype is real! Love how a coastal storm in late November is a “climate crisis” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: The hype is real! Love how a coastal storm in late November is a “climate crisis” Hilarious! All those circular arrows, dabs of white, and spilled blues and greens add to the crisis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 some LES potential very late Monday into Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: some LES potential very late Monday into Tuesday Yuck. There's like no cold air with the actual synoptic portion. I know it's only November, but that has been the theme of recent years. But this whole run is sort of an odd look anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yuck. There's like no cold air with the actual synoptic portion. I know it's only November, but that has been the theme of recent years. But this whole run is sort of an odd look anyways. GEFS looks a shit ton better. We go with that. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yuck. There's like no cold air with the actual synoptic portion. I know it's only November, but that has been the theme of recent years. But this whole run is sort of an odd look anyways. There is cold air behind it, typical for November. Average highs are still in the mid/upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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