wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Euro is complex and messy thanksgiving week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Through 1am.. As of last update kfzy was 37° and rain, so not sure this is going to verify lol This Afternoon Snow showers before 4pm, then rain and snow showers. High near 36. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight Snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 27. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Ts-forecast winter outlook fwiw.. http://www.tsforecast.com/snowpredictions.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ts-forecast winter outlook fwiw.. http://www.tsforecast.com/snowpredictions.html Isn't Syracuse average 127" not 117"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Isn't Syracuse average 127" not 117"? Yeah he's using the long-term average since 51/52, which is 117".. The 2000s we're hell of a decade lol http://www.tsforecast.com/seasonalsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah he's using the long-term average since 51/52, which is 117".. The 2000s we're hell of a decade lol http://www.tsforecast.com/seasonalsnowfall.html Who is that guy? That's a nice website. I might put one together for the highest total locations in ski country so I can tell KBUF to revise their WNY map. 1995-96 was a good winter wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Who is that guy? That's a nice website. I might put one together for the highest total locations in ski country so I can tell KBUF to revise their WNY map. 1995-96 was a good winter wow. Yeah I've been following him since just before I moved to Fulton, seems to be reliable..I don't know much about him though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah I've been following him since just before I moved to Fulton, seems to be reliable..I don't know much about him though.. I've been following him a while now. He does the forecast for oswego speedway every week in the summer. I'm a oswego speedway nut it's my Saturday night home haha. Ts's use to do a live video every Sunday night but noticed lately he hasn't been doing it. He is pretty good at forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 A near zonal flow on Saturday will transition to a highly amplified pattern by the beginning of the new work week. A vigorous shortwave digging southeast from the Canadian Rockies will be the impetus for the pattern change. The end result will be a deep closed low over the Upper Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. The stacked low will then push east across our region Monday night before moving to the St Lawrence valley on Tuesday. After experiencing little if any weather during the weekend, the above outlined scenario should provide us with some mixed to start the new work week. This will be followed by accumulating lake snows in a cold northwest flow Monday night and Tuesday. ECMWF guidance most meteorologically reasonable in the depiction of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 This: 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This will be followed by accumulating lake snows in a cold northwest flow Monday night and Tuesday. ECMWF guidance most meteorologically reasonable in the depiction of the event Doesn't look like this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 Really good EPS track for central NY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Really good EPS track for central NY I’d take that! Decent for Rochester east. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 The air dries out quickly behind this system but will certainly be some really strong NW flow bands off Huron/Ontario during this timeframe. Should be exciting time for Rochester-Syracuse corridor. Off of Erie it will be in ski country/hills. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those totals for syracuse and my hood are way overdone going off soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Really good EPS track for central NY That gets me moist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Anyone doing the skywarn training class tonight for buf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Anyone doing the skywarn training class tonight for buf? crap, totally forgot about that, heard it was a pretty neat online class. see there is another one on Dec 1, got to put a reminder on that one for myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: crap, totally forgot about that, heard it was a pretty neat online class. see there is another one on Dec 1, got to put a reminder on that one for myself! Yes I was a spotter for down here had to become one for up there. Was just curious if people did it. Their annual snow map almost made me choke on my water 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yes I was a spotter for down here had to become one for up there. Was just curious if people did it. Their annual snow map almost made me choke on my water Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Care to elaborate? My guess is he's not used to seeing such high average snowfalls (coming from SE Pennsylvania)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Care to elaborate? I don’t have the map but it had the lowville area less than Buffalo and Watertown. Only had 75-100 which shocked me. Tried looking for the map online but couldn’t find it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I don’t have the map but it had the lowville area less than Buffalo and Watertown. Only had 75-100 which shocked me. Tried looking for the map online but couldn’t find it You think the Lowville area seems on the low side, you should see the doughnut hole around TugHill Matt’s area… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I don’t have the map but it had the lowville area less than Buffalo and Watertown. Only had 75-100 which shocked me. Tried looking for the map online but couldn’t find it Lowville is tough. It’s in a real Valley. It gets downsloped with Lake Effect. It gets downsloped drone the east. But I doubt that’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You think the Lowville area seems on the low side, you should see the doughnut hole around TugHill Matt’s area… Lol I bet. Going to email them and see if they can send me the annual snow map. I’ll post it when I get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Lowville is tough. It’s in a real Valley. It gets downsloped with Lake Effect. It gets downsloped drone the east. But I doubt that’s right. O I know it is. Just shocked me they had that low. I was also wondering if those maps are just kind of radar estimated too? I mean looking at coocorahs and Nws spotter reports there are like 2 observers in lowville and in chases lake and that’s it. So wondering if they just guess the rest off radar estimates for qpf. I guess I’ll find out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 The map I posted had lowville at 119.2"(1981-2010).. Here are some numbers out of lowville.. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: The map I posted had lowville at 119.2"(1981-2010).. Here are some numbers out of lowville.. Yea that’s what I have been using which is why it shocked me their map. But I also feel once out towards that part of Lewis county observers are few and far between. Think they had like 150-175 for your area on their annual map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The map I posted had lowville at 119.2"(1981-2010).. Here are some numbers out of lowville.. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf Lowville has to be pretty high. They are just north of the perfect LES off of Ontario, have a ton of elevation and latitude. If Fulton averages 170" I would think Lowville would be around 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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