lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Dude legit 1-1/2” hr rates right now and sticking too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Dumping here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Well for this run the GFS just has a fropa Thanksgiving week, LR looks meh lol But it will change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 33 degrees here, the intense rates have cooled the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Congrats to everyone getting on the board today! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Over 2” so far dumping 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 down to 32 degrees. southwestern blvd is snow covered, just went to get some pizza for lunch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: down to 32 degrees. southwestern blvd is snow covered, just went to get some pizza for lunch I just drove home from running around this morning. From Walmart on Southwestern all the way to my house it was snowing 1”hr easily with snow full on covering the road, close to 2” on the main roads. Not one plow or salt truck as all and roads were absolutely horrendous. At times it was snowing so hard there were multiple people driving 15-20 mph on Southwestern with their hazard lights on. Multiple spin outs and accidents along my route home. Close to 2” here as well as can barely see the grass. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Picked up 0.16" of rain with the passing SW, can feel more of a "chill" in the air, temp down to 39° from a high of 45°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just measured 1.6” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I just drove home from running around this morning. From Walmart on Southwestern all the way to my house it was snowing 1”hr easily with snow full on covering the road, close to 2” on the main roads. Not one plow or salt truck as all and roads were absolutely horrendous. At times it was snowing so hard there were multiple people driving 15-20 mph on Southwestern with their hazard lights on. Multiple spin outs and accidents along my route home. Close to 2” here as well as can barely see the grass. KBUF fail. Broken thermometer and bad forecasting. Where do I apply? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Some game pics from Highmark Stadium in OP. Looks like a fun scene... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 note the pm cellular nature and the lakeshore rain. Sometimes I take for granted how good our radar is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Congrats to the western New York crew. You’re around 32 with accumulating snow while here in Sizzlecuse we’re in the mid to upper 40s with rain. Yeah, that happens every year around here as the cold air get modified by Ontario especially along the lake plain but inland should see something by this evening. Feels like the cold air is rushing in a bit quicker cause I'm down to 36@ already with forecasted temps for now are still right around 40F.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Next shortwave depicted by GOES-16 WV imagery over NE Montana (18Z Saturday) dives east-southeast across the Great Lakes on Sunday. By Sunday evening/night, this system will bring a period of light synoptic precipitation which looks like it will begin as an initial mix of rain or rain-snow (higher terrain) which should transition over to all snow for most locations by nightfall. With that said, thermal profiles are right on the cusp with H850T -4C/-5C per latest guidance. At this point, thinking it will be just cold enough to support a very minor snowfall event overnight. This will especially be the case across the higher terrain. Early estimates for lower elevations (lake plains) will be an inch or less, with 1-3 inches across the higher terrain above 1000 feet. The broad and weakening sfc low will track east-northeast across the region and will be found on the eastern end of lake Ontario by early Monday morning. While synoptic snows will diminish with the passage of the front, cyclonic west to northwest flow and falling H850T to -6C/-7C will prompt a lake response east and southeast of the Lakes on Monday. Monday night, there even could be some decent lake effect accumulations (+4 inches) southeast of Lake Ontario east of Rochester into Tuesday. Will need to monitor this and will mention this in the HWO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 No reason to back down on cold shot around tgiving even though some models have backed off it. Classic wave 2 hit in strat, albeit a bit weaker than it was a week ago. Can see from chart below 2 areas of warming on either side of SPV that elongates it like a hot dog. The alignment of this wave 2 hit to me correlates well to a solid cold shot coming south out of Canada into the plains then east. Can see the wave 2 amplitude on stratobserve maps We also have high latitude blocking going on as well with some -nao action possibly around tgiving as well -AO. I posted this a few days ago that the gfs backed off the eddy heat flux into the strat which decreased -NAM risk. Well it has since brought back the heat flux in response to the wave 2 hit and we now can see -NAM formation near tgiving. Below is 15 day eps, which will obviously change in some form or another as that far out the wavelengths get smoothed out. As long as that Aleutian low is there, that will teleconnect to a ridge out west or on the west coast which then translates to a trough and nw flow in the east. Will make a post early this coming week as what maybe to look for post tgivng into first part of dec 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Snowing in the lowville area and many of the tug cams.. Band pretty disorganized at the moment.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 9 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Snowing in the lowville area and many of the tug cams.. Band pretty disorganized at the moment.. Webcams this morning look like a lot of d-2” accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 I'm currently looking for a house similar to this in NYC. 700k plus here. Check out how much it is in Lowville , NY ( Tug Hill ) So much land. Not fair at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm currently looking for a house similar to this in NYC. 700k plus here. Check out how much it is in Lowville , NY ( Tug Hill ) So much land. Not fair at all lol 4200 square ft in NYC would be $2M+ 6+ acres impossible and would be many many many millions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Sizzlecuse. Subtropical in summer, and maritime in "cool" seasons. There aren't many other locales across the Great Lakes where warm air floods so far inland from the lake to the extent it does here. Right down Northern Onondaga to Mohawk Valley. The opposite cooling effect doesn't happen in the warm seasons. Truly a maddening place for a cold-weather fan. We took a staff picture outside the other day when it was like 55 degrees and my female colleagues were "soooooo cold." I legit rolled my eyes and joked with them about it being warm. You've got it lucky ladies cuz it's 10 degrees colder everywhere else in the state except Long Island. Perhaps we'll get some white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Looks like you Buffalo guys are getting some snow again this morning via webcams. Turned out to be bit of a wintry weekend there. (Late fall... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 59 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 4200 square ft in NYC would be $2M+ 6+ acres impossible and would be many many many millions. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Sizzlecuse. Subtropical in summer, and maritime in "cool" seasons. There aren't many other locales across the Great Lakes where warm air floods so far inland from the lake to the extent it does here. Right down Northern Onondaga to Mohawk Valley. The opposite cooling effect doesn't happen in the warm seasons. Truly a maddening place for a cold-weather fan. We took a staff picture outside the other day when it was like 55 degrees and my female colleagues were "soooooo cold." I legit rolled my eyes and joked with them about it being warm. You've got it lucky ladies cuz it's 10 degrees colder everywhere else in the state except Long Island. Perhaps we'll get some white rain. Look where all the green is lol Lower elevation, valleys, doesn't have much to do with the lake..That's why those are the warmest spots in the summer as well..NY state is like 60% higher elevations, we just aren't one of them lol Wind direction is from the south... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 KBUF reported 1.7" yesterday. First snow of the season, besides the Trace on the 3rd. I had 2.1" yesterday. Temps are at +2.0 @SouthBuffaloSteve Are you checking the temps at KBUF now with no sun/heating to see if they match up. If there is no difference now we can 100% chalk it up to urban heating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 That's a pretty decent pattern on the 6z GFS, parade of northern stream disturbances with LE behind each.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 Something is happening thanksgiving week. Someone here is getting some snow that's a lock. Either synoptic or LES is the question. Also @TugHillMatt is out of town so you can pretty much guarantee it. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 Looking further ahead the GFS keeps the trough in the east. I like my call for above average snowfall for November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Yep. Thanksgiving is a lock for most of us. NAO with Greenland block is what we will have, nearly guaranteeing a white Thanksgiving around WNY/CNY. Id expect at least one good synoptic storm out of it and a ton of LES. Should be fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looking further ahead the GFS keeps the trough in the east. I like my call for above average snowfall for November. Good call. 12z continues the trend. Real deep cold by end of run. Would be 20’s for highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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