BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Some of the WRF models show something similar to the NAM 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Pretty much all models show accumulating snow for KBUF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Only 9 days away guys 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Looks pretty active on all models, just need to get enough cold air to get something going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Geesh. I wonder if we'll even see flurries here in the Upstate tropics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 hours ago, winter_rules said: Wife and kids are sitting along walls in the hallway of elementary school for a very rare tornado warning in our neck of the woods! Any confirmed touchdown? Nothing like tornadoes in upstate new york in Mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Geesh. I wonder if we'll even see flurries here in the Upstate tropics... ThanksSizzle Day may see a flurry. May have to wait till after SizzleMas for any real accumulating graupel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Syrmax said: ThanksSizzle Day may see a flurry. May have to wait till after SizzleMas for any real accumulating graupel. Did you see....as soon as the Sizzle Southerly winds kicked in, we torched into the mid 60s overnight. So predictable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 The thing is...we think what we're seeing in the modeling this upcoming week is "just a November issue" but it isn't anymore. This is the type of stuff that has continued throughout entire winters lately. There's just NO cold air to work with. Elevation-dependent...ridge popping and pushing storms farther Northwest...any cold air tends to be marginal... We REALLY need things to work "just right" to get good snowfalls...especially with raging Pacific patterns that are never-ending. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: The thing is...we think what we're seeing in the modeling this upcoming week is "just a November issue" but it isn't anymore. This is the type of stuff that has continued throughout entire winters lately. There's just NO cold air to work with. Elevation-dependent...ridge popping and pushing storms farther Northwest...any cold air tends to be marginal... We REALLY need things to work "just right" to get good snowfalls...especially with raging Pacific patterns that are never-ending. You're right. 30 years ago the next event this weekend is a 2 foot LES storm. Instead its 2" of rain. We just need 1-2 degrees cooler, just goes to show you how a small difference in temp makes a big difference over the long term. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Look at those rates along the ridgeline 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 It also doesn't help when the lake is 4°-5° above average lol Obviously lack of elevation doesn't help the situation.. Even a wrap around/NW regime is rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It also doesn't help when the lake is 4°-5° above average lol Obviously lack of elevation doesn't help the situation.. Even a wrap around/NW regime is rain.. The lake doesn't matter as much as the temps in the atmosphere. We've had many early season events with 60 degree lake temps and snow along shoreline. Obviously it doesn't help but the bigger factor is the air going over the lake isn't cold enough. If this was -6 to -8 instead of -3 to -5 that would all fall as snow, warm lake or not. Actually sticking to the ground is another story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 It's the surface temperatures that are are clearly warmer near and SE of the lake, some lower 40s in there verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's the surface temperatures that are are clearly warmer near and SE of the lake, some lower 40s in there verbatim.. yeah -6 to -8 850s lead to surface temps around 32 this time of year instead of 38-41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 I think this map will be the most accurate for next few days, similar to what KBUF put out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think this map will be the most accurate for next few days, similar to what KBUF put out. The euro? Over the meso models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 47 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The euro? Over the meso models? yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Hopefully a sign of things to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 sunny and 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Welp, Got my settlement. I will be in lowville starting Nov 22 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: I like the new maps, more detail. Latest GFS goes crazy for snow over BUF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks to be reloading too 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That is a textbook look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Lake effect rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Lake effect rain? Not yet… another front working through with a line of showers and couple storms. Behind that should start to see the main lake effect band fire up in another couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 The high res really picks up on these early season steamy lakes. Check out this surface low hop scotching from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and setting up shop for awhile when it gets there. Also cool to see how the plumes of lake effect get wrapped into it all of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 So were just gonna toss all the 0z meso runs tonight... right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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