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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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The thing is...we think what we're seeing in the modeling this upcoming week is "just a November issue" but it isn't anymore. This is the type of stuff that has continued throughout entire winters lately. There's just NO cold air to work with. Elevation-dependent...ridge popping and pushing storms farther Northwest...any cold air tends to be marginal... We REALLY need things to work "just right" to get good snowfalls...especially with raging Pacific patterns that are never-ending.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

The thing is...we think what we're seeing in the modeling this upcoming week is "just a November issue" but it isn't anymore. This is the type of stuff that has continued throughout entire winters lately. There's just NO cold air to work with. Elevation-dependent...ridge popping and pushing storms farther Northwest...any cold air tends to be marginal... We REALLY need things to work "just right" to get good snowfalls...especially with raging Pacific patterns that are never-ending.

You're right. 30 years ago the next event this weekend is a 2 foot LES storm. Instead its 2" of rain. We just need 1-2 degrees cooler, just goes to show you how a small difference in temp makes a big difference over the long term.

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29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It also doesn't help when the lake is 4°-5° above average lol Obviously lack of elevation doesn't help the situation..

Even a wrap around/NW regime is rain..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14 (7).png

The lake doesn't matter as much as the temps in the atmosphere. We've had many early season events with 60 degree lake temps and snow along shoreline. Obviously it doesn't help but the bigger factor is the air going over the lake isn't cold enough. If this was -6 to -8 instead of -3 to -5 that would all fall as snow, warm lake or not. Actually sticking to the ground is another story. 

gfs_T850_neus_15.png

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