Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BGM Blizzard]

And this was his average analog map...

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[wolfie09]

A deep longwave trough will set up across eastern North America this
period with bands of lake effect precipitation forming as the pool
of cold air aloft crosses the Eastern Great Lakes. The amplified
flow will first generate plumes of lake effect rain to the north-
northeast of the Lakes (Niagara and Jefferson County) Friday Night
before the bands settle slowly southward Saturday. Deeper moisture
arrives east of Lake Ontario Saturday, increasing the intensity of
lake effect precipitation.

Thermal profiles are a bit too warm for snow overnight and Saturday
with temperatures at 850 hPa between -3 and -5C.

A shortwave will cross the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday, possibly
disrupting the bands of lake effect due to increase shear. The lake
effect precipitation will settle southward some as the shortwave
crosses our region and then remain east to southeast of the Lakes
Saturday Night and into Sunday behind the shortwave trough. As cold
air deepens behind this shortwave, it will become marginally cold
enough in the thermal profiles for snow...with the higher elevations
east of both lakes standing the best chances for accumulating
snow...this of a few inches at hill tops.

As lake induced equilibrium levels rise towards 15 to 18K feet
Saturday and Saturday Night there could be a few rumbles of thunder
over the Lakes, and just inland...within the heavier portion of the
lake precipitation band. Some graupel is also possible in the heart
of the lake band.

Overall higher QPF is likely east of Lake Erie, where an inch to
inch and a half of liquid precipitation is possible along the
shoreline and inland across the Southtowns. Upward of an inch of
liquid equivalent is possible on the Tug Hill...this as a mix of
rain and snow.

Sunday the lake precipitation will weaken some...this as a mix of
rain and snow and slowly edge northward as yet another shortwave
trough digs into the Central Great Lakes. During the day Sunday,
snow accumulation will be minor. Bands of Lake effect precipitation
will continue to lift northward, possibly into Canada Sunday Night
as the next shortwave trough nears our region.

Setting the scene for early next week, a trough spanning the eastern
half of the contiguous United States will allow a shortwave to round
its base, causing the longwave trough axis to cross overhead of the
area Monday. Meanwhile, to the west a broad ridge will span across
the western half of the country. As the longwave axis crosses the
region, the associated surface low overhead of the area Monday
morning will be kicked east-northeast into the Gulf of Maine. As the
low shifts east, northwest flow on the backside of the low, wrap
around moisture and the cold air aloft will promote lake enhanced
rain and snow showers southeast of both lakes, with snow showers
from Sunday transitioning to mostly rain during the daytime hours
Monday due to diurnal heating.

By Monday night, the next upper level trough will enter the Pacific
Northwest and causing the ridge to push the east as well as amplify
slightly. However with northwest flow and lingering moisture, lake
effect showers will continue through the overnight hours,
transitioning back to snow with the lack of daylight.

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

A deep longwave trough will set up across eastern North America this
period with bands of lake effect precipitation forming as the pool
of cold air aloft crosses the Eastern Great Lakes. The amplified
flow will first generate plumes of lake effect rain to the north-
northeast of the Lakes (Niagara and Jefferson County) Friday Night
before the bands settle slowly southward Saturday. Deeper moisture
arrives east of Lake Ontario Saturday, increasing the intensity of
lake effect precipitation.

Thermal profiles are a bit too warm for snow overnight and Saturday
with temperatures at 850 hPa between -3 and -5C.

A shortwave will cross the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday, possibly
disrupting the bands of lake effect due to increase shear. The lake
effect precipitation will settle southward some as the shortwave
crosses our region and then remain east to southeast of the Lakes
Saturday Night and into Sunday behind the shortwave trough. As cold
air deepens behind this shortwave, it will become marginally cold
enough in the thermal profiles for snow...with the higher elevations
east of both lakes standing the best chances for accumulating
snow...this of a few inches at hill tops.

As lake induced equilibrium levels rise towards 15 to 18K feet
Saturday and Saturday Night there could be a few rumbles of thunder
over the Lakes, and just inland...within the heavier portion of the
lake precipitation band. Some graupel is also possible in the heart
of the lake band.

Overall higher QPF is likely east of Lake Erie, where an inch to
inch and a half of liquid precipitation is possible along the
shoreline and inland across the Southtowns. Upward of an inch of
liquid equivalent is possible on the Tug Hill...this as a mix of
rain and snow.

Sunday the lake precipitation will weaken some...this as a mix of
rain and snow and slowly edge northward as yet another shortwave
trough digs into the Central Great Lakes. During the day Sunday,
snow accumulation will be minor. Bands of Lake effect precipitation
will continue to lift northward, possibly into Canada Sunday Night
as the next shortwave trough nears our region.

Setting the scene for early next week, a trough spanning the eastern
half of the contiguous United States will allow a shortwave to round
its base, causing the longwave trough axis to cross overhead of the
area Monday. Meanwhile, to the west a broad ridge will span across
the western half of the country. As the longwave axis crosses the
region, the associated surface low overhead of the area Monday
morning will be kicked east-northeast into the Gulf of Maine. As the
low shifts east, northwest flow on the backside of the low, wrap
around moisture and the cold air aloft will promote lake enhanced
rain and snow showers southeast of both lakes, with snow showers
from Sunday transitioning to mostly rain during the daytime hours
Monday due to diurnal heating.

By Monday night, the next upper level trough will enter the Pacific
Northwest and causing the ridge to push the east as well as amplify
slightly. However with northwest flow and lingering moisture, lake
effect showers will continue through the overnight hours,
transitioning back to snow with the lack of daylight.

Sunday through Tuesday might provide a shot for the Sizzle lowlands to get their first real flakes and slushy coating of the season.

[wolfie09]

Boom!!

Haha J/k but I do dig the new maps..I like how it shows exactly how much to expect..

[tombo82685]

I’ll take my 1-2” even though I’m not there yet lol

[rochesterdave]

25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Boom!!

Haha J/k but I do dig the new maps..I like how it shows exactly how much to expect..

The scale is a bit ridiculous. They should stretch out the lower amounts. 

[tombo82685]

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The scale is a bit ridiculous. They should stretch out the lower amounts. 

Lol I def agree. I mean 72-96” I can’t imagine happens that frequently while 1-4” is very common yet so small to see 

[wolfie09]

It's more about the"speration"..Here is Pittsburgh for example..As the difference grows so does each color.. Buffalo CWA just has a higher ceiling so they have more to fit lol Not saying I agree, just is what it is..

[tombo82685]

Fwiw, weeklies looked good first couple weeks then get a bit meh for remaining weeks 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

HRDPS for Saturday morning… pretty good agreement the band will be extremely strong despite P Type First half of Saturday. 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Don't know if this outlook was posted sometime earlier in a thread, but this is the preliminary winter forecast from meteorologist Jim Sullivan (aka OHWeather here in American Wx forums) of Weather Works...

 

I respect the depth of research, but thats an extremely aggressive forecast with a raging Pacific.

[tombo82685]

Just away from Erie with some elevation could pound decently saturday. good cold aloft, issue being surface. So intensity will surely be needed to dynamic cool down to surface. Decent omega as well in DGZ

 

[BuffaloWeather]

23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Just away from Erie with some elevation could pound decently saturday. good cold aloft, issue being surface. So intensity will surely be needed to dynamic cool down to surface. Decent omega as well in DGZ

 

I think we're all going to enjoy you on this forum with this in depth analysis. I will be chasing this event Saturday night. The models many times underestimate the dynamics of the intense snowfall rates off Erie. That band is going to be kicking and pretty confident we see some snow Saturday.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think we're all going to enjoy you on this forum with this in depth analysis. I will be chasing this event Saturday night. The models many times underestimate the dynamics of the intense snowfall rates off Erie. That band is going to be kicking and pretty confident we see some snow Saturday.

Agreed!  The 0z meso runs all took a bit of an odd turn and have this more of a W wind event now it seems.  General idea I am summing up has band form into Ontario on a SSW flow between 12am-4am.  Band intensifies as it sinks south into north side of Buffalo from 4am-8am.  Few models show a line of strong convection within the band around 10am right through the metro.  By 2pm-6pm the band is sinking south and sets up overnight across the southern tier.  Temps will be so close.  I think everyone will see flakes at some point in the band Saturday, and a few areas might pick up a slushy inch.  Will really depend on the rate intensity and if the band can stall out anywhere for a little while to start actually let the flakes build up enough to cool and stick.  Working Saturday so no chasing for me, but the band looks like it will return back up to metro area sometime on Sunday, might have to check that out.     

[TugHillMatt]

For the little bit it's worth, The Weather Channel updated their winter forecast. Then, check this baby out...anybody notice anything about the map?? (Hint: Even TWC trolls me...)

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

For the little bit it's worth, The Weather Channel updated their winter forecast. Then, check this baby out...anybody notice anything about the map?? (Hint: Even TWC trolls me...)

A hard turn right up to your house. OMG!!! You can’t make that up. Lol

[tombo82685]

8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think we're all going to enjoy you on this forum with this in depth analysis. I will be chasing this event Saturday night. The models many times underestimate the dynamics of the intense snowfall rates off Erie. That band is going to be kicking and pretty confident we see some snow Saturday.

Thanks, I love winter time for obv reasons. I feel pattern recognition is a bit easier to decipher unlike summer where shorter wavelengths can really screw you.  Looking forward to some lake effect events over the area and hopefully in Lowville. Never really experienced one obv down in SEPA. 

[winter_rules]

Wife and kids are sitting along walls in the hallway of elementary school for a very rare tornado warning in our neck of the woods! 

[rochesterdave]

GFS is showing a near parade of storms with a track over us or just north of us. Man, after last year, that brings back rough memories…. It’s early. 
But there’s little hope they track south. That doesn’t really happen in November. I’d bet on ticks NW, which could benefit the LES belt folks who would like a big winder moving way NW and dragging across a good CF. 

[BuffaloWeather]

@TugHillMatt Springville 

[winter_rules]

1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

Wife and kids are sitting along walls in the hallway of elementary school for a very rare tornado warning in our neck of the woods! 

All is well.  Back to classes shortly after I posted that.  I’m sure that made for an interesting morning with 4-10yr olds! 

[BGM Blizzard]

14 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

All is well.  Back to classes shortly after I posted that.  I’m sure that made for an interesting morning with 4-10yr olds! 

Saw that warning pop up on my phone for eastern Broome. The scanner was busy with tree and wire down calls in that area around that time frame. Wonder if NWS will investigate further. 

[wolfie09]

Rgem looks mainly west over Ontario, not that it matters lol Lake still has to much influence.. Already wasted 1.3" LE last event, might as well pile on lol It's a wet start to November.. Rgem has over 3" of liquid in typical fashion. 

[Flying MXZ]

26 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

All is well.  Back to classes shortly after I posted that.  I’m sure that made for an interesting morning with 4-10yr olds! 

Crazy.  Nice downpour when that line got further east, but nothing like they had!

[rochesterdave]

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Rgem looks mainly west over Ontario, not that it matters lol Lake still has to much influence.. Already wasted 1.3" LE last event, might as well pile on lol It's a wet start to November.. Rgem has over 3" of liquid in typical fashion. 

Nothing like 1.3” of graupel and frosty rain drops. 

[wolfie09]

Some decent rain totals overnight, early this morning, my guage stopped working overnight (lol) but all the C/N Oswego county WU stations have between 1.5"-2" of rain..

[BuffaloWeather]

34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Some decent rain totals overnight, early this morning, my guage stopped working overnight (lol) but all the C/N Oswego county WU stations have between 1.5"-2" of rain..

2" of lake effect rain coming this weekend. Rather have the sunshine and 60s. 

[BuffaloWeather]

NAM 3k is interesting. 13" of snow across grand island. 

[BuffaloWeather]

This seems more realistic. Elevation based LES event.