TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum. I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum. I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter. The entire crew here should go like that post. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, Luke_Mages said: The entire crew here should go like that post. LOL...LOVE it! Please do! All their passive-aggressive side remarks and "better than though" attitudes...they can shove it. I was trying to have a DISCUSSION. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 44 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum. I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter. Stay away from every other forum. I visit every single one of them and we're the best one by far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: The entire crew here should go like that post. Represent! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Well at least the GFS is active.. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well at least the GFS is active.. Active is an understatement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Well at least the GFS is active.. Oh look rainstorm #1 of 10 for the mid Atlantic.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 One thing we can surely say, atleast as of right now, Canada won't have a shoratge in cold heading towards Dec 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Benny boy at Chestnut Ridge 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Oh look rainstorm #1 of 10 for the mid Atlantic.. Bahahaha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum. I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter. To be fair...several of them have been kind and given good responses/suggestions....so for those guys, may they get 15 inches of snow and 10 inches of rain instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Benny boy at Chestnut Ridge The backdrop of colors against his black coat makes for a fantastic picture! This legit could be a puzzle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The backdrop of colors against his black coat makes for a fantastic picture! This legit could be a puzzle. Thank you! A friend of mine is starting a pet photography business and did this for us for free to build her portfolio. Going to give her something since they came out so nice. There are others that were incredible, but that one is my favorite picture ever taken of him and we have like 10k pictures of him lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 GFS actually gets cold enough for some LES, still a really close call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 should be a fairly intense band for a period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Lot of energy along the east coast at the 100 hr. Wouldn’t take a whole lot to back that LP up and have a coastal or even inland track. Something to watch. Vigorous little spinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Nice rain this morning that I wasn't expecting. But this year I should always be ready for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Stay away from every other forum. I visit every single one of them and we're the best one by far. I think New England is pretty good. I don't interact much there (or here) but lots of good Met input there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Friday night and Saturday the vertically stacked low will continue to elongate and push eastward...with its axis reaching western Quebec and western New England by early Saturday evening. As this system pushes further east...an embedded strong shortwave and secondary cold front will also slide eastward and across our area. These features will bring about a general chance for some additional scattered showers...while also ushering in a secondary shot of colder air aloft. Coupled with a corresponding increase in background synoptic-scale moisture...the progressively colder air crossing the warmer waters of the Lower Great Lakes will help to trigger a lake response. This will initially take shape off Lake Erie on a somewhat sheared south-southwesterly flow Friday night... which will help to direct the bulk of the activity across the Niagara Peninsula... Niagara county...and adjoining portions of Northern Erie and Orleans counties. On Saturday the low level flow over Lake Erie will then gradually veer more west-southwesterly... which will result in the Lake Erie lake effect drifting south to areas ENE of the lake. At the same time a southwesterly flow will develop across Lake Ontario...allowing for a band of lake effect showers to develop across Jefferson county and the uppermost Saint Lawrence Valley. With respect to precipitation type...current thermal profiles still suggest that the column will remain warm enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall in the form of plain rain through Saturday... save for the higher terrain where some wet snow may mix in later Friday night/early Saturday morning...and again toward Saturday evening. With regard to surface temperatures...lows Friday night should range from the mid 30s across the colder interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 30s/near 40 elsewhere...with highs on Saturday then ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s across far western New York to the mid and upper 40s further east. Saturday night and Sunday upper level troughing and plentiful cool air aloft will persist across our region...helping to support a continued lake response downwind of the lakes. In general the medium range model consensus supports a continued veering of the low level flow to westerly for Saturday night and the first part of Sunday... with the flow then backing a bit again to west-southwest during Sunday as the main upper level trough reloads across the Upper Great Lakes...and a corresponding weak surface wave develops across Michigan/southern Ontario. Should this verify...any lake effect activity should drift further south to areas east of the lakes for Saturday night/early Sunday...before migrating a bit northward again during Sunday. With 850 mb temps lowering just a little further to -5C to -6C thermal profiles will become more marginal for rain vs. snow...with the resultant ptype therefore more dependent on the precipitation intensity and time of day. At this point some accumulating snows are not out of the question Saturday night and Sunday morning as the lake effect begins to intersect the higher terrain...however it remains far too early to attempt to pin down locations and amounts. Sunday night and Monday the medium range guidance continues to gradually come into better agreement on the aforementioned surface wave crossing our region in conjunction with the passage of the main upper level trough axis. Such a scenario would likely at least temporarily weaken if not outright disrupt any lake effect via corresponding adjustments to the low level flow...while also bringing about a more general chance of rain and snow showers. Following the passage of this feature...a general west-northwesterly flow of colder air (850 mb temps of -7C to -9C) should then follow for Monday night and Tuesday...leading to some additional lake effect precipitation east-southeast of both lakes. During this latter time frame...have elected to lean more heavily on the ECMWF/GEM solutions rather than the GFS...which appears much too fast at ejecting the upper trough and bringing warm air advection into our area on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Gfs on board 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 While I would take the snow shower activity, timing sucks and would be to warm to stick much verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 GFS also has a SW on Saturday.. This leaves very little spacing for lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Latest gfs run from 0z this morning has removed heat flux into stratosphere that it was showing a few days ago. Has been a good correlation with any strong bout of heat flux, we get a period of -NAM to follow. Anyways, wrote about this I believe this past weekend about wave 2 hit on SPV near tgiving,. Can now see this on the strat maps. I'm looking for a good cold shot around tgiving timeframe, if current progs hold on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 3 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Tennessee Valley is good people But I agree. Y'all the crunkest on the board iwabh Crunkest....what an interesting adjective....lol The Central PA guys are a good group too. Living in different parts of the northeastern part of the country and interacting on different subforums though, I love ours. It's a good reminder to me that while New Yorkers have a strong, cold exterior about them, many are teddy bears at heart and really do care about others. They just have an interesting way of showing it. As much as I find people in the Syracuse area miserable, they are some of the most generous I've ever met...and once they FINALLY open up to you, they are LOYAL friends. Glad to have you join us...and I look forward to chatting about "our area" with you this lake effect season. P.S. I am going to Tennessee during Thanksgiving week (wife's sister/family live in Clarksville)...which as the guys on here know...means WINTER STORM. They love when I go away during the winter because I take my curse with me. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Long way out there but thinking decent synoptic event around thanksgiving. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 @wolfie09no hot dog needed that was a shot at @TugHillMattbeing out of town 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @wolfie09no hot dog needed that was a shot at @TugHillMattbeing out of town I picked up on it right away...and my blood pressure immediately shot up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Well as of now looks like the GFS is the outlier for Monday..CMC, iconic and Uk pretty much have a weak wave running south of us..See what the euro shows shortly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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