rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Precipitation type will become an issue starting early Saturday night, perhaps even a bit sooner as shallow low level cold air seeps southwestward down the Saint Lawrence Valley and into the North country. This will bring a period of freezing rain to Jefferson and Lewis counties, with the potential for up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation, this will necessitate the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson and Lewis counties starting Saturday night. As colder air continues to seep in from the north, mixed precipitation including freezing rain will gradually work south through the area later Saturday night into early Sunday morning for most areas south of Lake Ontario, perhaps not entirely reaching the Southern Tier. The potential for some icing in these areas will continue to be highlighted in the HWO product, but may eventually need to add other portions of the area to the advisory as the event draws closer. Thermal profiles are cold enough Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures rapidly dropping down to near -10C, to support all snow. There may still be a period of mixed precipitation early Sunday closer to the Pennsylvania line, but for the most part Sunday looks to be a transition to all snow for everybody. Snowfall amounts are only expected to be in the 1-3 inch range although localized higher amounts are possible, especially over higher terrain and areas where some lake enhancement occurs. By late Sunday afternoon and certainly Sunday night...the cold air will be deep enough to support a response off the lakes. Limiting the lake snows though will be a general lack of synoptic moisture and a cap that will lower from about 7500 ft. Regardless...a few inches of lake snow can be expected southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will certainly be colder than recent nights...as the mercury will drop into the teens over the western counties and will tumble to the single digits across the North Country. Wind chill values will be in the single digits for most areas...but will range from 5 to 10 below for much of Jefferson and Lewis counties. Coming around a little bit. Obviously still not impressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z nam 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Windshield wiper models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It starts with a J and ends with an N 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: It starts with a J and ends with an N Jamison? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Precipitation type will become an issue starting early Saturday night, perhaps even a bit sooner as shallow low level cold air seeps southwestward down the Saint Lawrence Valley and into the North country. This will bring a period of freezing rain to Jefferson and Lewis counties, with the potential for up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation, this will necessitate the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson and Lewis counties starting Saturday night. As colder air continues to seep in from the north, mixed precipitation including freezing rain will gradually work south through the area later Saturday night into early Sunday morning for most areas south of Lake Ontario, perhaps not entirely reaching the Southern Tier. The potential for some icing in these areas will continue to be highlighted in the HWO product, but may eventually need to add other portions of the area to the advisory as the event draws closer. Thermal profiles are cold enough Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures rapidly dropping down to near -10C, to support all snow. There may still be a period of mixed precipitation early Sunday closer to the Pennsylvania line, but for the most part Sunday looks to be a transition to all snow for everybody. Snowfall amounts are only expected to be in the 1-3 inch range although localized higher amounts are possible, especially over higher terrain and areas where some lake enhancement occurs. By late Sunday afternoon and certainly Sunday night...the cold air will be deep enough to support a response off the lakes. Limiting the lake snows though will be a general lack of synoptic moisture and a cap that will lower from about 7500 ft. Regardless...a few inches of lake snow can be expected southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will certainly be colder than recent nights...as the mercury will drop into the teens over the western counties and will tumble to the single digits across the North Country. Wind chill values will be in the single digits for most areas...but will range from 5 to 10 below for much of Jefferson and Lewis counties. When has "general lack of synoptic moisture" not been a problem? Boy, do we need some lows sitting in better positions... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It starts with a J and ends with an N To be fair, that's headed for Warren and Bradford, PA. Let's keep the riff raff out of NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Yeah those are weird maps from KBUF and a weird long range discussion based on what models are showing. There is a very brief warmup Tues/Weds. They've fallen off quite a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Lock it in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Runs the gammot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The low end map doesn’t match the high end map. The higher end has the proper enhancement on a NE wind…the expected or low end has a NW wind…which model are they riding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The low end map doesn’t match the high end map. The higher end has the proper enhancement on a NE wind…the expected or low end has a NW wind…which model are they riding? The "expected map" includes the lake effect they think will occur after the system passes by. It looks like they may think IF the enhancement occurs, it could be some good quality stuff that could produce much higher totals. But, yeah, the maps are a bit goofy and confusing. I've found that to be pretty common with the very few events we've had this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Lock it in. Why didn’t they just call it 0.0 across the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Why didn’t they just call it 0.0 across the board? Trust in The Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Lock it in. 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Why didn’t they just call it 0.0 across the board? 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Trust in The Science. Fake News. Trust the "EVENT TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP" (Especially one that puts me near the bullseye.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Those maps update automatically and they lowered the"high end".."Expected" has slight change..(kbuf).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2021 ending here weather wise the way 2021 went down…Sun shining and temp about 15 degrees above normal (quite a nice evening actually, people out walking, basketball court full of kids playing hoops, beautiful Buffalo babes out sunbathing…). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: 2021 ending here weather wise the way 2021 went down…Sun shining and temp about 15 degrees above normal (quite a nice evening actually, people out walking, basketball court full of kids playing hoops, beautiful Buffalo babes out sunbathing…). Crappy low 40s and drizzly here. Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Crappy low 40s and drizzly here. Garbage 50F and a sunny afternoon here in the Sizzle. Glorious! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gfs looks a bit colder.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It's a liiiiiitle bittle farther south. Gets Rochester into the goods better, but still trolls the stupid Sizzlecuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 26 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: 2021 ending here weather wise the way 2021 went down…Sun shining and temp about 15 degrees above normal (quite a nice evening actually, people out walking, basketball court full of kids playing hoops, beautiful Buffalo babes out sunbathing…). Did you just call @BuffaloWeather's hairy legs "babes?" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It sure does lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Nasty cut off. Goin to be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nasty cut off. Goin to be close. Every event in this state is a nasty cutoff. Drives me bonkers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Every event in this state is a nasty cutoff. Drives me bonkers. Maybe BuffaloWeather had a nasty cutoff of all that leg hair and now Buffalo Bumble considers him a babe? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Maybe BuffaloWeather had a nasty cutoff of all that leg hair and now Buffalo Bumble considers him a babe? Interesting method of combining legs and weather into one sentence.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Every event in this state is a nasty cutoff. Drives me bonkers. Hudson Bay R/E still priced right! R/S won't be up there for another 5-10 years...and think of the LES potential! Muwahaaa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs looks a bit colder.. GooFuS looks like week old cold fish with worms oozing out. (How about that visual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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