BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Definitely seems to be a weakening trend in the models the past 24-36 hours. Snowfall projections upstream near and east of Chicago across MI have really dropped off as the energy gets sheared out coming across the upper midwest. That would seem to play favorably for W and N NY snowfall chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Definitely seems to be a weakening trend in the models the past 24-36 hours. Snowfall projections upstream near and east of Chicago across MI have really dropped off as the energy gets sheared and opened up coming across the upper midwest. That would seem to play favorably for W and N NY snowfall chances. Good. Sorry for everyone out there, but a weaker system would more likely lead to a flatter look. I will take another inch or two of snow over another 40 to 50 degree rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I’m surprised there isn’t more chatter this am. No it’s not a blockbuster by any means but it could end up being a decent synoptic event. I also believe that there will be quite a bit of lake enhancement off Ontario as during the height of the event (Saturday night-Sunday Am) the winds will be NNE. This could bump totals up an inch or two just as it’s forecast for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m surprised there isn’t more chatter this am. No it’s not a blockbuster by any means but it could end up being a decent synoptic event. I also believe that there will be quite a bit of lake enhancement off Ontario as during the height of the event (Saturday night-Sunday Am) the winds will be NNE. This could bump totals up an inch or two just as it’s forecast for Chicago. Yeah things look decent atm for a 2-4” event with maybe a lolli or two to 5” where there’s enhancement somewhere from BUF to ROC. Would like to see the 12z models bump south a bit more for me here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yeah things look decent atm for a 2-4” event with maybe a lolli or two to 5” where there’s enhancement somewhere from BUF to ROC. Would like to see the 12z models bump south a bit more for me here. Agreed. That would give much of the CWA a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I think the timing is awesome. A Sunday afternoon with awesome football games on. Sign me up for even mood flakes. Anything more is gravy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m surprised there isn’t more chatter this am. No it’s not a blockbuster by any means but it could end up being a decent synoptic event. I also believe that there will be quite a bit of lake enhancement off Ontario as during the height of the event (Saturday night-Sunday Am) the winds will be NNE. This could bump totals up an inch or two just as it’s forecast for Chicago. I just want a big LES event. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Guidance has come into better agreement on the complex scenario for New Years night...as energy ejecting out of the base of a decoupled trough in the plains will result in a pair of sfc waves tracking from the Ohio valley across West Virginia and the Mason Dixon Line to Cape Cod. Widespread pcpn on the north side of this storm track should initially be in the form of rain over our region...but as we progress through the night...a very shallow wedge of cold air will drain southwest from the St Lawrence valley to the North country... allowing the rain to change to a period of freezing rain. As the cold air deepens towards daybreak Sunday...the freezing rain could be accompanied by some sleet and snow. The change to mixed pcpn will then take place across the western counties towards morning. There could be as much as a quarter inch of ice across parts of Jefferson and Lewis county. This will remain highlighted in the HWO product and will eventually necessitate the need for a winter wx advisory. As the aforementioned sfc waves move off the coast on Sunday... notably colder air...to the tune of -10c H85 temps...will pour south across the forecast area. This will allow mixed pcpn early in the morning to change to just snow. Snowfall amounts are only expected to range from one to three inches for most areas...but given the steady drop in temperature to sub freezing levels...there could be some ice under the snow that accumulates on area roadways. If there is an upside to this wintry mess...it will be the fact that it will come during the weekend when there should be fewer people on area roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Guidance has come into better agreement on the complex scenario for New Years night...as energy ejecting out of the base of a decoupled trough in the plains will result in a pair of sfc waves tracking from the Ohio valley across West Virginia and the Mason Dixon Line to Cape Cod. Widespread pcpn on the north side of this storm track should initially be in the form of rain over our region...but as we progress through the night...a very shallow wedge of cold air will drain southwest from the St Lawrence valley to the North country... allowing the rain to change to a period of freezing rain. As the cold air deepens towards daybreak Sunday...the freezing rain could be accompanied by some sleet and snow. The change to mixed pcpn will then take place across the western counties towards morning. There could be as much as a quarter inch of ice across parts of Jefferson and Lewis county. This will remain highlighted in the HWO product and will eventually necessitate the need for a winter wx advisory. As the aforementioned sfc waves move off the coast on Sunday... notably colder air...to the tune of -10c H85 temps...will pour south across the forecast area. This will allow mixed pcpn early in the morning to change to just snow. Snowfall amounts are only expected to range from one to three inches for most areas...but given the steady drop in temperature to sub freezing levels...there could be some ice under the snow that accumulates on area roadways. If there is an upside to this wintry mess...it will be the fact that it will come during the weekend when there should be fewer people on area roadways. I like how the NWS is still in disbelief of higher accumulation. Not one model shows that low but they’re staying staunch. Odd. Just like the temps taken on warm sunny days… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I just want a big LES event. I really think Wednesday Thursday could be a time to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 December Temps BUF: +6.5 ROC: +4.4 WAT: +5.1 SYR: +7.3 BING: +5.7 Buf average Dec. temp: 38.1 Buffalos top 3 Dec temps 42.1 (2015) 38.1 (2021) 37.6 (1923) Buffalo will finish with the 2nd warmest December on record this year and likely the 3rd warmest year on record with last year being #2. Only 2012 was warmer. So in the last 2 years we've had 2 of the top 3 warmest years on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Lake Erie is at 39 degrees, Ontario at 40. Average for the date is 35 degrees. However most of the lake is still in the 40s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: December Temps BUF: +6.5 ROC: +4.4 WAT: +5.1 SYR: +7.3 BING: +5.7 Buf average Dec. temp: 38.1 Buffalos top 3 Dec temps 42.1 (2015) 38.1 (2021) 37.6 (1923) Buffalo will finish with the 2nd warmest December on record this year and likely the 3rd warmest year on record with last year being #2. Only 2012 was warmer. So in the last 2 years we've had 2 of the top 3 warmest years on record. SizzleCuse takes down Buffalo even with that rogue thermometer sitting on a hotplate at KBUF. Bend the knee! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Not sure of Syracuse December record but a +7.3 has to be top 2-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 How warm was December 2015? It's 4 degrees above 2nd place. What the heck happened that month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: SizzleCuse takes down Buffalo even with that rogue thermometer sitting on a hotplate at KBUF. Bend the knee! Sizzlecuse being warmer than Buf makes me think the thermometer at BUF isn't broken after all. Maybe Buf/Syr are broken for the warm and Roc is broken for the cold. Something is definitely up with Roc therm. They are always cooler than everywhere else in NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 147 pages since this thread started Nov 1st and all we got was a few dustings. Can you imagine when we get a real winter? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 No-go on the NAM still. Fwiw... Cleveland chucked it aside with their early AM update last night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sizzlecuse being warmer than Buf makes me think the thermometer at BUF isn't broken after all. Maybe Buf/Syr are broken for the warm and Roc is broken for the cold. Something is definitely up with Roc therm. They are always cooler than everywhere else in NYS. Yeah...not sure of course without being on the inside and doing actual engineering and metrology to know for certain. It's def been a mild month. This subject has been a hot potato in Climate issues for decades. It's def become warmer...how much is due to instrument inaccuracy or siting issues is another question. It's not warm enough for a pool in December though. We have that low sun and cloud thing working against us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Road trip to Virginia? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 ICON came in weak and warm. An open wave. Hope this isn’t the trend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Jamestown is the money call. Wish it wasn’t but it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12z RGEM looks good but definitely not a great synoptic model, much better at forecasting mesoscale lake effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS tracks south of Pittsburgh but not enough cold air being drawn into the system. It's a perfect track for Upstate if we had cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 HiREZ GFS is a near total miss. Entire precip field stays north. Just cool drizzle. Yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS tracks south of Pittsburgh but not enough cold air being drawn into the system. It's a perfect track for Upstate if we had cold air. Maddening because there’s a HP over Quebec. It’s quite literally the perfect set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Unless you can get warm air on NNE winds were fine…I’ve always thought this was a Buffalo NE to Rochester special. A lot to iron out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Very close for BUF/ROC. Looks like a Toronto special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Very close for BUF/ROC. Looks like a Toronto special. Still has that 3-5” I’m thinking. More as you go towards Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Still has that 3-5” I’m thinking. More as you go towards Lake Ontario. The storm hits WNY late tomorrow into Sunday morning so there is potential there hitting at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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