Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[sferic]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Love the graphic, where can I find one for Lake Ontario ? Thanks !

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

17 minutes ago, sferic said:

Love the graphic, where can I find one for Lake Ontario ? Thanks !

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/

[tim123]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whats ens snow output?

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lol...that would be the flattest look we could ask for in regards to this weekend. Do they start the trend of flattening the cutter as we get within 84 hours?

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Those are the warmest lake temps I've seen for Ontario this late in the year. 

[Thinksnow18]

7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol...that would be the flattest look we could ask for in regards to this weekend. Do they start the trend of flattening the cutter as we get within 84 hours?

We’re within 84 hours now…this was a big development IMO…this will most likely be the track of this system, within a spectrum. I hate to say it this way but the further NW you are (looking at the Niagara Frontier) the better the chance for some moderate accumulation. 

[tim123]

Euro ens snow map?

[rochesterdave]

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Euro ens snow map?

[TugHillMatt]

18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

We’re within 84 hours now…this was a big development IMO…this will most likely be the track of this system, within a spectrum. I hate to say it this way but the further NW you are (looking at the Niagara Frontier) the better the chance for some moderate accumulation. 

The 18Z NAM is coming in flatter as well. So, it looks like we continue with the season's trend. A weaker wave with perhaps some slop/mix?

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The Eps are different from the Ens (which Buffalowx posted). I think??

[tim123]

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The 18Z NAM is coming in flatter as well. So, it looks like we continue with the season's trend. A weaker wave with perhaps some slop/mix?

Better than 60 and rain.

[TugHillMatt]

Huge difference...especially since NAM usually goes farther north as we get closer. Not this time. Still not good enough for us...but getting closer if we can get the cold air to press in.

12Z

18Z

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Better than 60 and rain.

Eh, I don't know. I'm getting sick of 40 and rain. lol

If we have to get a big cutter and temps in the 60s with it in order to shake the pattern up to something good...give me the torch 60 for a day or two.

[tim123]

We had that in beginning of December. Didnt do squat.

[BGM Blizzard]

[TugHillMatt]

Low looks like it wants to move towards Jamestown in a more west to easterly direction. What is it with that place? Do these lows get a Coke fix in Jamestown?

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

We had that in beginning of December. Didnt do squat.

The pattern was indeed different then. We were coming into the grips of an increasingly -PNA. A cutter now would do different things.

[BGM Blizzard]

24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Eps are different from the Ens (which Buffalowx posted). I think??

Nah it's the same thing. Ens is just short for ensemble. EPS is ensemble prediction system. 

[wolfie09]

Friday night and Saturday the first in a series of surface waves
developing over the Ohio Valley will ripple northeastward along the
slowly advancing broader surface trough...with this feature passing
either over or very close to our region during Saturday...with a
second and notably stronger wave then approaching our area later in
the day Saturday. With a sufficiently mild airmass in place to
support all liquid...increasing moisture and large-scale ascent will
generally bring an increasing potential for rain throughout this 24-
hour period...though the greatest probabilities for this now look to
come Saturday afternoon with the approach of the second and stronger
surface wave. Otherwise...unseasonably mild conditions will hang on
for one more day...with highs ranging from the mid 40s across the
North Country to the lower to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario.

 

Moving on into Saturday night and Sunday...model guidance seems to
be slowly converging upon a solution in which the aforementioned
second and stronger wave of low pressure will track northeastward
across Pennsylvania and New York State...with the 12z Canadian a
notably fast outlier in bringing this system through about 9-12
hours sooner. Following a consensus more heavily weighted toward the
slower guidance...widespread synoptic rains out ahead of this wave
will mix with and change over to snow Saturday night and Sunday
morning...though any accumulations from this currently only look to
be minor and on the order of 1-2 inches.

Following the passage of this wave...a northwesterly flow of much
colder air (850 mb temps plunging to between -16C and -18C) will
help produce accumulating lake effect snows to the southeast of the
lakes Sunday afternoon and night...with these subsequently lifting
northward to areas east of the lakes Monday and Monday night as the
low level flow becomes more westerly. This being said...it still
remains far too early to attempt to pin down the exact placement of
any lake effect bands or their intensity. Lingering cold air may
allow the lake snows to persist across areas east of the lakes into
Tuesday morning...before increasing ridging and warm air advection
helps shut this down by Tuesday night. Thereafter...generally dry
and milder weather is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

[TugHillMatt]

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Friday night and Saturday the first in a series of surface waves
developing over the Ohio Valley will ripple northeastward along the
slowly advancing broader surface trough...with this feature passing
either over or very close to our region during Saturday...with a
second and notably stronger wave then approaching our area later in
the day Saturday. With a sufficiently mild airmass in place to
support all liquid...increasing moisture and large-scale ascent will
generally bring an increasing potential for rain throughout this 24-
hour period...though the greatest probabilities for this now look to
come Saturday afternoon with the approach of the second and stronger
surface wave. Otherwise...unseasonably mild conditions will hang on
for one more day...with highs ranging from the mid 40s across the
North Country to the lower to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario.

 

Moving on into Saturday night and Sunday...model guidance seems to
be slowly converging upon a solution in which the aforementioned
second and stronger wave of low pressure will track northeastward
across Pennsylvania and New York State...with the 12z Canadian a
notably fast outlier in bringing this system through about 9-12
hours sooner. Following a consensus more heavily weighted toward the
slower guidance...widespread synoptic rains out ahead of this wave
will mix with and change over to snow Saturday night and Sunday
morning...though any accumulations from this currently only look to
be minor and on the order of 1-2 inches.

Following the passage of this wave...a northwesterly flow of much
colder air (850 mb temps plunging to between -16C and -18C) will
help produce accumulating lake effect snows to the southeast of the
lakes Sunday afternoon and night...with these subsequently lifting
northward to areas east of the lakes Monday and Monday night as the
low level flow becomes more westerly. This being said...it still
remains far too early to attempt to pin down the exact placement of
any lake effect bands or their intensity. Lingering cold air may
allow the lake snows to persist across areas east of the lakes into
Tuesday morning...before increasing ridging and warm air advection
helps shut this down by Tuesday night. Thereafter...generally dry
and milder weather is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Build up the excitement of winter maybe actually arriving and then.......

Thereafter...generally dry
and milder weather is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Build up the excitement of winter maybe actually arriving and then.......enter Tuesday.

They’re riding the GFS only…Euro has no warm up

[CNY_WX]

27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Low looks like it wants to move towards Jamestown in a more west to easterly direction. What is it with that place? Do these lows get a Coke fix in Jamestown?

They want to see the statue of Lucy. 

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

They’re riding the GFS only…Euro has no warm up

There is Brief warmup middle of next week but then it gets really cold, end of GFS starts to build the warmth out west with a +PNA

[wolfie09]

Euro has a warm-up Tues and Wednesday.. Granted it's a week away..

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro has a warm-up Tues and Wednesday.. Granted it's a week away..

I mean is 38 warm? It’s temporary too but if you read the AFD they make it appear like it’s going to last

[rochesterdave]

The location of the Canadian HP is making all the difference. It was near North Dakota earlier. 

[tim123]

Gfs getting close to more wintry than wet

[TugHillMatt]

GFS is trying.... From Hours 84 to 90 it takes the Low from Pittsburgh to Philly to......somehow Binghamton. lol