tim123 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Take the inch or so of snow call it a win and go home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Kind of a random thought but I’m wondering if the term “January thaw” should be removed from our vocabulary in upstate NY. Used to be we would get a day or 2 near 60 in January and things would start to thaw out. Funny how the term was used like it was an atmospheric condition or something. Anyway, we might need to flip it entirely around to “January freeze”. Sitting here at BUF with less than 10 inches on the season and only rarely dropping below freezing at night…I’m looking forward to that 3-5 day “January freeze” when it snows and temps stay below freezing. Then things go back to normal and we hover near 40 for rest of the winter. Ok, that’s a bit tongue in cheek and inspired by this perpetual early November weather, but it’s actually kinda true nowadays. I’ve said this before and probably sound like a broken record, but I think someone posted a stat that BUF’s average winter temp has risen 2-4 degrees since 1970. We were always riding the line here between deep/rarely interrupted winter (take a boat trip across Lake Ontario and enter the great white north) and winter scraps (see Harrisburg, PA). I fear that the temp increase has permanently placed us in the fighting for scraps zone. If the global temp was 11 deg F colder during the last ice age, a 2-4 degree winter warming here is probably enough to consider changing our forum name to something like “The New Mid-Atlantic”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Even icon is swinging all over the place. So close in as well. Only like 100 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 So this is actually within reasonable timeframe, not weeks out like guidance has been for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: Even icon is swinging all over the place. So close in as well. Only like 100 hours out Dunno, I'm pretty used to seeing models flopping around a lot in the 3-5 day range as systems get sampled better, etc. Outside of 4, 5 days they're pretty much useless for any specifics. I'd think in another day we'll have firmer consensus on the weekend cutter from the "A" team models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, tim123 said: Even icon is swinging all over the place. So close in as well. Only like 100 hours out 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Dunno, I'm pretty used to seeing models flopping around a lot in the 3-5 day range as systems get sampled better, etc. Outside of 4, 5 days they're pretty much useless for any specifics. I'd think in another day we'll have firmer consensus on the weekend cutter from the "A" team models. Superfast flow in the northern jet is causing the models to flop around... Along with lots of small short waves embedded in the flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 During the weekend a wavy frontal boundary/baroclinic zone will slowly sag southeastward and across our region...with one or more waves of low pressure rippling northeastward along this boundary and passing over and/or south of our area. The medium range guidance continues to exhibit the usual timing and track differences this far out...but in general this should result in rain and above normal temperatures on Saturday transitioning to snow between Saturday night and Sunday...along with temperatures dropping off to near to slightly below average levels by Sunday. Following the passage of this system...a general west-northwesterly to westerly flow of much colder air (850 mb temps dropping to as low as -16C to -18C Sunday night into early Monday...the coldest airmass we`ve seen so far this winter) will set up for the balance of this period. This will bring the potential for lake effect snow to areas southeast and east of the lakes...along with below average temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Lol Another day...another forecast of a predominantly wintry mix rubbish winter storm that is set to affect the area. It seems these are the only systems we can get this year. I didn't hack their computer. I promise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Jamestown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 GFS is quicker, stronger and less confluence..Not a good recipe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Jamestown lol.....and with no snowfall from the storm or lake effect. Each run just gets worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: BUF’s average winter temp has risen 2-4 degrees since 1970. We were always riding the line here between deep/rarely interrupted winter (take a boat trip across Lake Ontario and enter the great white north) and winter scraps (see Harrisburg, PA). I fear that the temp increase has permanently placed us in the fighting for scraps zone. If the global temp was 11 deg F colder during the last ice age, a 2-4 degree winter warming here is probably enough to consider changing our forum name to something like “The New Mid-Atlantic”. It's funny you mentioned that, because as I was out for a walk with the Mrs. I was just thinking about this. That our winter daytime averages were right around the freeze mark give or take a degree. Now you raise that a few here or there and we are out of the snow business all together. If 37-41 is our new winter weather I want zero part of any of that. I would love to move and chase the cold and snow to Northern Maine or something like that but realistically that won't happen. I can only hope something shifts back to cold winters while I am still young enough to care for cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GFS is quicker, stronger and less confluence..Not a good recipe lol Time to pronounce it. If it was showing a NC/VA hit I'd expect to get hit but a low over Buffalo, goodnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 It's obviously just one run, but after whatever falls tonight, BUF, ROC, and SYR all get like ONE inch of snow through the end of next week. Just ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Both GFS and Euro have a follow up SW with limited synoptic moisture but does kick off a little LES, that's about all I got to hope for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's obviously just one run, but after whatever falls tonight, BUF, ROC, and SYR all get like ONE inch of snow through the end of next week. Just ugly. Looks like we’re still on track for a run at 60 by end of next week though! But not to worry, a cold front will plow through thereafter and plunge our temps down to the upper 30’s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Looks like we’re still on track for a run at 60 by end of next week though! But not to worry, a cold front will plow through thereafter and plunge our temps down to the upper 30’s. You mean this garbage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Euro has it as well but I'd be okay with it if we get some of that cold lol Actually euro cold for majority of the week after that Saturday system moves through..Now we just need some moisture lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro has it as well but I'd be okay with it if we get some of that cold lol Actually euro cold for majority of the week after that Saturday system moves through..Now we just need some moisture lol I don't know if people know this or not but some of our lakes biggest LES events come right after our warmest winter temps. We need a big cold front to come sweeping through after a massive cutter. It will finally throw this pattern change into fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 light/moderate snow here right now, giant flakes. Going to go for walk with dog since these events are so rare now adays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 Had tickets to Hamilton musical today, they canceled 2 hours before the show due to lead actor getting covid. Really hope I get to see before they leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just one example of many if you go look at LES archive Dec 1-3 2010 The event began quickly and evolved from a departing major synoptic storm which drenched the region with 1 to 2 inches of rain early on Wed. Dec 1st. Temperatures started the day in the 50s but fell rapidly as the storm departed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 WWA expanded in C NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just one example of many if you go look at LES archive Dec 1-3 2010 The event began quickly and evolved from a departing major synoptic storm which drenched the region with 1 to 2 inches of rain early on Wed. Dec 1st. Temperatures started the day in the 50s but fell rapidly as the storm departed. Yeah same thing happened a couple weeks later lol After a respite of a few days, the lake effect machine revved up again following the passage of a storm which brought a cold rain to most of the area on the 12th. This event was very long lasting and features three "sub" events...although it never really ended until later Friday the 17th. Most of the accumulation occurred during these three "sub" event periods...a north to northwest "upslope" flow from late Monday (13th) through Tuesday morning (14th) which brought 6-10 inches from Monroe to Wayne County and over a foot to the Chautauqua Ridge...a rare narrow but intense band from Georgian Bay which worked slowly across the Niagara Frontier during afternoon of Tuesday 14th...dropping 4 to 7 inches...and a broader WNW flow off the east end of Lk Ontario on Wed Nt/Thurs morning 15-16t which nailed Oswego County with over a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Had tickets to Hamilton musical today, they canceled 2 hours before the show due to lead actor getting covid. Really hope I get to see before they leave. Oh no! We have tickets for Sat night. Hope it works out for you (and us). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Jamestown Jamestown is the storm magnet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Snowing very nicely with HUGE flakes. Grass is almost covered already. Got home from work an hour or so ago and it wasn’t even snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 Moderate/heavy snow here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Rain/snow mix and 35.6° here. Probably only getting a slushy coating at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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