Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BuffaloWeather]

GEM has intense band of lake effect precip 

[BuffaloWeather]

 @Thinksnow18

[TugHillMatt]

Yawn.

[BuffaloWeather]

We're going to get a lot of rain or some snow.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Making my call early T-36” this weekend. Book it. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Many parts of lake Erie in the 60s still

[BuffaloWeather]

It's such a marginal event with temps and wind speed. Very early but looks like well aligned flow and good moisture. So 2 out of the 4 ingredients there. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The end of the GFS is what @tombo82685mentioned with MJO going into phase 7. Still very bullish. Big time negative EPO there. Still super far out though. 

[wolfie09]

Euro pretty much has two systems over the next 8 days or so with LE behind both, varying wind direction(not that it matters) and obviously marginal temps lol

Most of this"snow" is really a mix verbatim..(lower elevations)..

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The end of the GFS is what @tombo82685mentioned with MJO going into phase 7. Still very bullish. Big time negative EPO there. Still super far out though. 

Yea, like they say in the stock market with stocks, gotta be PAYient

[BuffaloWeather]

65 at Kbuf top notch 

[wolfie09]

A cold front will move across the area and produce rain showers
Thursday night. Ample moisture and forcing along the front will
allow a solid band of showers with good model agreement
supporting categorical POPS Thursday night. Rainfall amounts
should average a quarter to a half inch, except up to an inch
east of Lake Ontario. Rain showers will end from west to east
during Friday.

The pattern will become favorable for lake effect rain or snow
showers during the weekend, with cooler air and troughing aloft. The
pattern will become quite amplified across North America as a deep
trough becomes established over the Upper Midwest and then migrates
downstream into the Great Lakes, while a ridge builds in the west.
There`s still uncertainty in the wind direction, and whether the
thermal profile will be cold enough to support snow.

In general, expect a prevailing southwest flow through Saturday
night. This would tend to produce more organized bands off of Lake
Erie. Expect showers to develop across the Niagara Frontier Friday
night. These will initially be rain showers, but model consensus
shows 850mb temperatures dropping to -6c by Saturday morning which
would be cold enough to support some snow. This cool air aloft will
remain in place through the weekend, along with a cyclonic flow
aloft which will provide synoptic scale moisture. This will support
lake effect rain and snow showers, especially northeast of the lakes
and east of the lakes at times. Precipitation type will be marginal,
depending on precipitation intensity, time of day, and how cool
aloft it is. Accumulating snows are also not out of the question,
however it`s far too early to pin down locations and amounts.
Confidence is not quite there to add to the HWO, but this may be
considered later as model guidance comes into better agreement.

The 12Z GFS/ECMWF bring stacked low pressure across the region
Sunday night and Monday. This could support more widespread rain or
snow showers inland from the lakes. Other guidance keeps the system
an open wave which would maintain more of a lake effect environment.
Either way, temperatures will remain below normal during the
period.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

65 at Kbuf top notch 

If it’s not snowing this time of year I want weather like today!  Perfect!  And with the weekend forecast I think I need to go get a bag of hot dogs to throw on the grill!  

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

A cold front will move across the area and produce rain showers
Thursday night. Ample moisture and forcing along the front will
allow a solid band of showers with good model agreement
supporting categorical POPS Thursday night. Rainfall amounts
should average a quarter to a half inch, except up to an inch
east of Lake Ontario. Rain showers will end from west to east
during Friday.

The pattern will become favorable for lake effect rain or snow
showers during the weekend, with cooler air and troughing aloft. The
pattern will become quite amplified across North America as a deep
trough becomes established over the Upper Midwest and then migrates
downstream into the Great Lakes, while a ridge builds in the west.
There`s still uncertainty in the wind direction, and whether the
thermal profile will be cold enough to support snow.

In general, expect a prevailing southwest flow through Saturday
night. This would tend to produce more organized bands off of Lake
Erie. Expect showers to develop across the Niagara Frontier Friday
night. These will initially be rain showers, but model consensus
shows 850mb temperatures dropping to -6c by Saturday morning which
would be cold enough to support some snow. This cool air aloft will
remain in place through the weekend, along with a cyclonic flow
aloft which will provide synoptic scale moisture. This will support
lake effect rain and snow showers, especially northeast of the lakes
and east of the lakes at times. Precipitation type will be marginal,
depending on precipitation intensity, time of day, and how cool
aloft it is. Accumulating snows are also not out of the question,
however it`s far too early to pin down locations and amounts.
Confidence is not quite there to add to the HWO, but this may be
considered later as model guidance comes into better agreement.

The 12Z GFS/ECMWF bring stacked low pressure across the region
Sunday night and Monday. This could support more widespread rain or
snow showers inland from the lakes. Other guidance keeps the system
an open wave which would maintain more of a lake effect environment.
Either way, temperatures will remain below normal during the
period.

Its tough to get a true SW flow LES event so it would be a shame if its all rain. SW flow produces the strongest bands and dynamic cooling is often underrated in such events. We're at the time of year where below average temps should feature some type of snow, especially at night. I could see lake effect snow Sat/Sunday night and Lake effect rain during the day. Maybe even back and forth depending on the strength of the band. Should be fun to track. 

[TugHillMatt]

Interesting snippet from BGM's discussion:

There is still some uncertainty with the synoptic pattern by
later Sunday with some indication that a secondary wave may drop
south and add some changes to the flow pattern which would
disrupt the location and timing of any remaining lake bands.
Will have to keep a close eye on this weekend pattern and how it
evolves into early next week. There is the potential for some
significant accumulating snows somewhere downwind of the Great
Lakes. When, where and how much are still in question, but the
pattern looks favorable.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Interesting snippet from BGM's discussion:

There is still some uncertainty with the synoptic pattern by
later Sunday with some indication that a secondary wave may drop
south and add some changes to the flow pattern which would
disrupt the location and timing of any remaining lake bands.
Will have to keep a close eye on this weekend pattern and how it
evolves into early next week. There is the potential for some
significant accumulating snows somewhere downwind of the Great
Lakes. When, where and how much are still in question, but the
pattern looks favorable.

If none of us get our snowblowers ready we'll get snow...

[wolfie09]

Would be nice lol

This is the system that interrupts ongoing lake effect. 

[wolfie09]

Euro is farther NW with that system and Warmer. Ggem farther south..

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro is farther nw with that system and Warmer. Ggem farther south..

Gfs shifted south

 

[Thinksnow18]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEM has intense band of lake effect precip 

That will be snow. I’m starting to get the feeling, and NWS is too that the precip will be heavy enough to drop the temps in that band

[BuffaloWeather]

19 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That will be snow. I’m starting to get the feeling, and NWS is too that the precip will be heavy enough to drop the temps in that band

Still way too early. Will have better idea by Thursday.

[tombo82685]

weeklies look good still through mid dec. We start to loose the pac for a couple weeks with some GOA trough look, but they increased the high lat blocking this run. Thinking that high lat blocking is in response to increase strat hits. But thats always tough to nail down this far out.  

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

weeklies look good still through mid dec. We start to loose the pac for a couple weeks with some GOA troug look, but they increased the high lat blocking this run. Thinking that high lat blocking is in response to increase strat hits. But thats always tough to nail down this far out.  

Good to see you posting again 

Negative NAO?

Positive PNA?

[tombo82685]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good to see you posting again 

Negative NAO?

Positive PNA?

+pna this week and next week, but then gets flattened out a bit due to lower hgts in GOA region. EPO zone looks neutralish. Looks like some high lat blocking in the AO and NAO domain for thanksgiving period to start of december, then that wanes towards mid month. Then the pac improves by that time.

[tombo82685]

Something to pay attention down the road as we get towards Thanksgiving. Almost everytime we have had a strong heat flux in the Strat, we have gotten a -NAM response following it. Can see we have another one building week of 20th, does that lead to another -NAM period after around or after Thanksgiving?

 

 

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

65 at Kbuf top notch 

Sizzle Sizzle

[BGM Blizzard]

2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

If none of us get our snowblowers ready we'll get snow...

Very true. I'm still waiting for all the leaves to turn and fall before I take my mower deck off the tractor. But I did grease and oil the plow and blower attachments so they are ready for gametime.

[wolfie09]

Hell of a look on the LR GFS, has as much of a chance of verifying as the giants winning the SB lol

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

31 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Very true. I'm still waiting for all the leaves to turn and fall before I take my mower deck off the tractor. But I did grease and oil the plow and blower attachments so they are ready for gametime.

How is the foliage for everyone else?  A lot of the maple trees near me are still pretty lush, finally seeing some change today after the recent freeze but can’t say I ever remember seeing the trees so full so deep into November.  Might not be a good thing it we end up seeing snow into this weekend. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

How is the foliage for everyone else?  A lot of the maple trees near me are still pretty lush, finally seeing some change today after the recent freeze but can’t say I ever remember seeing the trees so full so deep into November.  Might not be a good thing it we end up seeing snow into this weekend. 

Same here. I have a few maples holding on and my Catawba look like mid summer.