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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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 Just looking over everything, to me the better chance of sustained cold is after the 20th of November when more teles line up. Doesn't mean we won't get a cold shot, just like transient to me due to the changes in the pacific with a +pna/-epo tandem. So whats causing that sudden flip from a nina pacific look to nino? My non professional view seems to be whats brewing over Asia currently. I don't have mt torque maps, but looks like there is expansive high pressure spread out over China causing  a positive East asian mt torque event?  The HP over central and Northern China combined with the tropical belt underneath, as the MJO forcing is near the Maritime region. This pressure difference between convection and HP accelerates the pac jet and creates a jet ext. which is giving us the pacific dominated air across the country this week.

ecmwf-deterministic-china-mslp-6200000.thumb.png.b0d194a0ea595d67e2bf0d26a7cff427.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z200_speed-6329600.thumb.png.ff8d02482b03b6c38be1a3577ef3570c.png

We can then see strong low pressure coming off China negative tilting which causes massive ridging building out ahead of it. This is a cyclonic wave break. What this does is it ends the jet ext in the Pacific and buckled the flow and retracts the pacific jet. Which then allows our -epo/+pna to start to form ecmwf-ensemble-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-6675200.thumb.png.3108ab8583057a6ac84702244bd8efba.png

 

Because other factors IMO aren't lined up yet, (mjo, stratosphere) this is a transient cold shot followed by a return to normal or abv. We need to wait for tropical forcing and or stratosphere alteration to bring more sustained cold in which I believe occurs week of Thanksgiving.

 

Can see on Strat chart here on GEFS wave 1 hit starts with strong Siberian warming in about 8-9 days. We then may see a wave 2 formation  as we get another area of warming near Scandinavia around the 20th. Around that point we could possibly watch out for some maybe -nao blocking to maybe show it's face. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z30_anom-7064000.thumb.png.81e705f0bf655cc37346039bc4cae604.png

 

 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-7215200.thumb.png.41bf1ac4097af9f44ac24e856948d407.png

Can see in image above the SPV is getting squeezed by the wave 2 formation in the stratosphere. This may allow for a period of high lat blocking.

 

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Also, currently MJO forcing is in Maritime continent, which translates to warmth here. That swings towards phase 7 Thanksgiving week which is getting better aligned for a cold shot in plains that eventually comes east. Can see on EPS mean the convection in the maritime region starts feeding into the low south of the Aleutians further enhancing. The Aleutian low, is more of a nino look than nina. In nina you usually get a Aleutian ridge which correlates to a -pna

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7150400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7539200.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

 Just looking over everything, to me the better chance of sustained cold is after the 20th of November when more teles line up. Doesn't mean we won't get a cold shot, just like transient to me due to the changes in the pacific with a +pna/-epo tandem. So whats causing that sudden flip from a nina pacific look to nino? My non professional view seems to be whats brewing over Asia currently. I don't have mt torque maps, but looks like there is expansive high pressure spread out over China causing  a positive East asian mt torque event?  The HP over central and Northern China combined with the tropical belt underneath, as the MJO forcing is near the Maritime region. This pressure difference between convection and HP accelerates the pac jet and creates a jet ext. which is giving us the pacific dominated air across the country this week.

ecmwf-deterministic-china-mslp-6200000.thumb.png.b0d194a0ea595d67e2bf0d26a7cff427.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z200_speed-6329600.thumb.png.ff8d02482b03b6c38be1a3577ef3570c.png

We can then see strong low pressure coming off China negative tilting which causes massive ridging building out ahead of it. This is a cyclonic wave break. What this does is it ends the jet ext in the Pacific and buckled the flow and retracts the pacific jet. Which then allows our -epo/+pna to start to form ecmwf-ensemble-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-6675200.thumb.png.3108ab8583057a6ac84702244bd8efba.png

 

Because other factors IMO aren't lined up yet, (mjo, stratosphere) this is a transient cold shot followed by a return to normal or abv. We need to wait for tropical forcing and or stratosphere alteration to bring more sustained cold in which I believe occurs week of Thanksgiving.

 

Can see on Strat chart here on GEFS wave 1 hit starts with strong Siberian warming in about 8-9 days. We then may see a wave 2 formation  as we get another area of warming near Scandinavia around the 20th. Around that point we could possibly watch out for some maybe -nao blocking to maybe show it's face. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z30_anom-7064000.thumb.png.81e705f0bf655cc37346039bc4cae604.png

 

 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-7215200.thumb.png.41bf1ac4097af9f44ac24e856948d407.png

Can see in image above the SPV is getting squeezed by the wave 2 formation in the stratosphere. This may allow for a period of high lat blocking.

 

Great stuff! We haven't had sustained cold since the winter of 2013-2014. Everything has been pretty transient around here.

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8 hours ago, sferic said:

Hey all,

 

I am now a proud owner of a home in Cicero, NY around 10 miles North of Syracuse on I81

 

Still shuffling between Liberty NY in Sullivan County's Catskills and Lynbrook Long Island (Nassau County ) 10 minutes from JFK airport.

 

I do have a weather cam set up there to monitor my property and snow.

House getting a new kitchen so won't be there for an extended period of time until the end of December

 

Looking forward to sharing observations with my 3rd acurite weather station and really seeing LES

 

Be interesting to see how Cicero ranks against neighboring areas I know of like Camilius, Manlius and Brewerton  in comparison

 

Most interesting to me  will be to see is if Cicero outperforms downtown Syracuse (Snowiest USA major city. I can see historical records for SYR but not Cicero

If you are around Cicero give me a shout here

 

My wife and I love the area and I am happy to be there and as I might have said in an earlier post; I can also go to Liberty NY or Lynbrook Long Island if that is where the snow action is.

Hopefully, fun times ahead!

Welcome! Prepare for good ole fashion sizzle. :sun:

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great stuff! We haven't had sustained cold since the winter of 2013-2014. Everything has been pretty transient around here.

Yea, to just sum it up in layman's terms. I think the cyclonic wave break in the north pacific is what starts the changes in the pna/epo domains. Due to the poor mjo forcing which is favorable for warmth and strengthening PV it will lead to a +AO which locks the cold up near the pole. Due to the epo and pna flipping to allow colder air to come south out of Canada, it will bring a cold shot late next weekend into following week but its transient, due to factors mentioned above.

Can see on current MJO forecast, big time -OLR over maritime continent which then starts leaking towards the dateline which is getting closer to phase 7 which correlates to good cold starting to push in from the plains 

spatial_olrmap_CA_full.gif.28651bd8998f5c7ca5f3b6108472f1c4.gif

391660022_combined_image(1).png.5126a0b12ec0ab507c35dd1eec29d1bc.png

 

Once the MJO gets into more favorable phases for bringing colder air east which looks to be around Thanksgiving. Then add in some wave 1/2 hits to the SPV which can unleash some very cold air south too and maybe bring some bouts of high lat blocking too. This also looks to be after the 20th as well. That is when I would lean for cold air to lock in better. Just my 2 cents though.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, to just sum it up in layman's terms. I think the cyclonic wave break in the north pacific is what starts the changes in the pna/epo domains. Due to the poor mjo forcing which is favorable for warmth and strengthening PV it will lead to a +AO which locks the cold up near the pole. Due to the epo and pna flipping to allow colder air to come south out of Canada, it will bring a cold shot late next weekend into following week but its transient, due to factors mentioned above.

Can see on current MJO forecast, big time -OLR over maritime continent which then starts leaking towards the dateline which is getting closer to phase 7 which correlates to good cold starting to push in from the plains 

spatial_olrmap_CA_full.gif.28651bd8998f5c7ca5f3b6108472f1c4.gif

391660022_combined_image(1).png.5126a0b12ec0ab507c35dd1eec29d1bc.png

 

Once the MJO gets into more favorable phases for bringing colder air east which looks to be around Thanksgiving. Then add in some wave 1/2 hits to the SPV which can unleash some very cold air south too and maybe bring some bouts of high lat blocking too. This also looks to be after the 20th as well. That is when I would lean for cold air to lock in better. Just my 2 cents though.

 

 

 

 

It seems every year we see cold air forecasted 2-3 weeks out in time and as we get closer it gets warmer and warmer. The models and long range forecasting have been abysmal since the "upgrades".

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It seems every year we see cold air forecasted 2-3 weeks out in time and as we get closer it gets warmer and warmer. The models and long range forecasting have been abysmal since the "upgrades".

Yea, I think whats sort of to blame is Pacific pattern. Just hard to nail down specifics when you have very little data being incorporated into models over the ocean 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

True this weekend was the exception to the rule. Was able to finish winterizing the backyard. Officially ready for the first snow, put the gazebo away, plants, BBQ, and chairs.

Did the exact same thing lol haha. Didn’t even watch the game yesterday I was so busy doing everything outside, I’m so lucky I didn’t watch it because I would have been cursing at the TV left and right they way they played and lost to a Jaguar team that hadn’t won a game on US soil in over a year.

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2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Did the exact same thing lol haha. Didn’t even watch the game yesterday I was so busy doing everything outside, I’m so lucky I didn’t watch it because I would have been cursing at the TV left and right they way they played and lost to a Jaguar team that hadn’t won a game on US soil in over a year.

Most frustrating game I've ever watched. 

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NWS:

There will be a brief break in rain behind the cold front later
Friday through a portion of Friday night, then extensive wrap around
moisture moves back into the eastern Great Lakes later Friday night
through the weekend. This will bring a chance of showers in general,
and the arrival of cooler air aloft will also support an increasing
chance of lake effect and/or lake enhanced precipitation north and
northeast of the lakes. The column looks to stay warm enough for all
rain through Saturday, followed by increasing chances of some wet
snow mixing in later Saturday night through Sunday.
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Yeah BW if that haha..And for good reason lol We are really more"neutral" with a 50/50 chance of either..

Look at the euro ahead of the front and behind the front, it will take us a week to make up those +anomalies lol Granted after Saturday its mainly BA throughout, just not by much...

 

sfct_anom.us_ne (24).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (25).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (26).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (27).png

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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah BW if that haha..And for good reason lol We are really more"neutral" with a 50/50 chance of either..

Look at the euro ahead of the front and behind the front, it will take us a week to make up those +anomalies lol Granted after Saturday its mainly BA throughout, just not by much...

 

sfct_anom.us_ne (24).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (25).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (26).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (27).png

It's really tough to get double digit negative departures. Like impossible tough. When is the last time, sometime in July? 

It seems much more difficult to get them in the colder months, then the warmer months. 

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20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We have already surpassed our average high of 49°, on our way to the upper 50s today.. Don't get me wrong it still feels nice lol

Same here. Looks like a high in the mid 60s here. Wish it didn't get dark so early, cannot even go disc golf after work. This is the time of year I start cheering for snow because I can't do anything outside as its too dark out. 

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