rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Hammer time here in Pittsford! Snow globe stuff. Beautiful. Getting close!!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Heard Spencerport already has 2”. I bet Delta and the airport have 1”+. It’s really coming down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 This escalated quickly … National Weather Service Buffalo NY 655 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 NYZ002>004-014-230800- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0029.211222T2355Z-211223T1000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua 655 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hammer time here in Pittsford! Snow globe stuff. Beautiful. Getting close!!! Alright the melt percentages have been changed. @rochesterdavegoes to 20%, @TugHillMatt has been increased to 30% and @CNY-LES FREAKgoes up to 50% 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, Polarbear said: This escalated quickly … National Weather Service Buffalo NY 655 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 NYZ002>004-014-230800- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0029.211222T2355Z-211223T1000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua 655 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Ya think? Man, BUF is basically now casting every winter event lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Heard Spencerport already has 2”. I bet Delta and the airport have 1”+. It’s really coming down now. KROC reporting moderate snow 1/2 mile visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 This is what I mean when I say get the cold over our head and it will snow with 2 lakes nearby. Any lift and its snow around here with cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Where is delta. He looks to be in thick of it so far? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 There she goes... Based on almost every snowfall underperforming here (other than a 5 mile wide WNW lake effect band), I am going to go with a quarter to half inch of snow from tomorrow night's wave. Seems like we get about a fourth of whatever is forecast. Are those expectations still too high? Glad you Rochester guys are cashing in...enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 One hell of a squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Both things are bending us over too for different reasons. Nao for shearing storms out. Pna for se ridge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Crazy loop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: GB is really producing. Could be a nice connection for a bit of a surprise tonight. When I was pIcking my daughter up from pre-K, the NW sky from the 290 was totally dominated by that band off southern Lake Huron. It looked like a total monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Heard Spencerport already has 2”. I bet Delta and the airport have 1”+. It’s really coming down now. Just took measurements after taking a little cruise around town. Definitely the most snow of the year. Some roads were very snow covered. I’ve got a solid 3 inches of pretty high ratio stuff on the snowboard. My snow depth measuring point is showing 4 on the ground. It was holding maybe half inch starting the day and probably had some drifting too. Major over-performer IMBY. Someone was posting models a few days back showing a narrow south shore special (but mostly in Wayne county) . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 How far are you from airport delta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Just took measurements after taking a little cruise around town. Definitely the most snow of the year. Some roads were very snow covered. I’ve got a solid 3 inches of pretty high ratio stuff on the snowboard. My snow depth measuring point is showing 4 on the ground. It was holding maybe half inch starting the day and probably had some drifting too. Major over-performer IMBY. Someone was posting models a few days back showing a narrow south shore special (but mostly in Wayne county) . Thats an awesome fluff bomber, congrats! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Hammer time here in Pittsford! Snow globe stuff. Beautiful. Getting close!!! Crazy how it works, you’re going to jump from your 1” for the season to passing KBUF if this sets up the way it is looking like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: How far are you from airport delta? 1.8 miles due west from main terminal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just surpassed 1”. The drought is over. Woohoo! Delta and airport really crushing it. Maybe get an official white Christmas at ROC? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 RGEM was the only model that advertised this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: RGEM was the only model that advertised this. Like usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Rgem strengthens the band overnight as it backs a little north, let's see how good it is vs the Matt effect.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I decided to peruse some of the previous discussions from the past. Could go back even more, but just went back to December 2019. Same theme, same discouragement. The Pacific has been destroying our Decembers and much of Januaries. Oh, the things I could have cut and pasted... (Oh, and Syracuse will probably hit the new year with even LESS snowfall than last November/December! lol... Just awful. Snippets from December 2019 On 12/24/2019 at 2:51 PM, BuffaloWeather said: This is a long stretch of way above normal temps for late Dec. This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. _______________________________________________ Buffaloweather: This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia. ________________________________________________________ Snippets from December 2020: rochesterdave Members 5.1k Location:W. Irondequoit, N. rochester Posted December 27, 2020 Seriously though, it’s been a tough time to live in Syracuse or Rochester as snow lovers. We do best in deep, cold winters with persistent NW flow- those winters might be gone. This pattern favors transient systems with quick, violent fronts. We need a winter that settles in with a deep eastern trough and an Alaskan ridge. If it wasn’t for blocking (at least that’s something) the raging pacific would be serving up exactly the same as we had last year. And that was bad enough. One of these storms should turn at the right longitude. This pattern is also good for a retrograde storm like Tim and I always dream about- get one to spin up in the atlantic then back in to the Adks and stall. Opportunities but these things only leave 50 mile swaths... On 12/27/2020 at 11:55 AM, Thinksnow18 said: I don’t think I’ve ever looked at 2 weeks of rain in January Buffaloweather: We just had that last January. January 2020 was the 9th warmest in the records. ____________________ Freak: I'm dead serious when I say we should go for the all time least snowiest season on record here in Syracuse because, from the looks of most guidance we may get to mid-January with not much accumulation so Ima start rooting for it, why not, since it doesn't want to snow anymore. _____________________ Buffaloweather: Posted December 28, 2020 Lots of cutters next 2 weeks. Should be a few really warm days tossed in there compared to average. Feel pretty confident in another above average month in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem strengthens the band overnight as it backs a little north, let's see how good it is vs the Matt effect.. lol...Gah...look at it! I did NOT ask for this snow forcefield!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Seeing as how fleeting this moment will likely be I’m heading out to cut across this band for a little awhile. I’ll report if I see anything good! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Seeing as how fleeting this moment will likely be I’m heading out to cut across this band for a little awhile. I’ll report if I see anything good! Enjoy! Looks like you're almost guaranteed a White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Strong band just sitting about 3 miles to my south for the last hour. NAM wants to bring it back up into Monroe county overnight. Haven’t had much more than flurries here in Pittsford for the last 1.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I’m down here just south of the thruway and it’s pounding good! Heading up towards Churchville next to grab that next strong cell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I have this sinking feeling that the WWA won't come to fruition here. Can't tell you how many times BUF issued an 11th hour WWA and western Wayne cty got squat. Hoping this time is different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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