TugHillMatt Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's kind of hard to compare when Oswego has had it's worst 2 year span in history.. According to the Oswego E spotter last year was 59" and the previous year 52".. Syracuse was much closer to average then Oswego was.. I have noticed Oswego county doesn't do well at all with many synoptic events. I think downsloping plays a much bigger role than is often discussed in the weather world in relation to many lake effect areas...Oswego being one of them. Heck, even when I was in South Redfield, I felt that was an issue. During synoptic events, the snowfall just seemed like it was struggling...like when you see lots of space/dry air falling between snowflakes (hard to explain). So, during these exceptionally mild winters where cold air and lake effect snow is lacking, I could see how a place like Oswego could have worse results than here. Those snowfall dumps bring up those season totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 12 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: @Thinksnow18 I added some new graphics! Little Johnny Cash for tonight's 10pm temperature check in at the always balmy Buffalo Niagara International Airport! Be careful around that Ring of Fire! 4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I agree with this. Plus once again it was full sun at KBUF yesterday and no wind at all. Let’s also take into effect KBUF is about 10 miles inland from the lake. So the only way the temp gauge would be influenced by the lake is a SW wind pushing 52 degree air towards it…and all other sites would have a similar temperature range. according to this, kbuf is running 1-2 degrees to warm compared to surrounding station analysis https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/Kbuf 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would send KBUF a screenshot of the highest departure you can find the next few weeks current time, maybe they will go check it out again or replace a broken part. I've sent them a few things recently but they stopped replying, I bet they think I am a crazy nut job. The only answer I have been given is UHI could explain it. While the impact on the climate records is minimal I still wonder if they could at least try and calibrate a second probe to the ASOS and then place it somewhere else on the airport grounds and just test to see if the current location reading is being contaminated during the overnight period. Could be new development or activity in that area of the airport that the NWS is not even aware of? Makes me wonder if this higher temperature reading could cause any operational issues at the airport. Take last night for example where the airport was reading 38 while the surrounding sites were near freezing at 32-34. Do we need to de-ice the runways yet? Maybe at 34... but 38 we can wait another hour right? Maybe a bit of an extreme example, but I think we should want the "official" temperature to be rather official shouldn't we? Hard to accept it when we have question past record keeping and errors have actually been found... (the Erie snow spotters... the Buffalo temp sensor issue just last summer/fall... I think someone else mentioned Albany found an error with their sensor this past summer) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: according to this, kbuf is running 1-2 degrees to warm compared to surrounding station analysis https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/Kbuf wow, great link, thanks! lot of information on there to dive through, but as you said it also seems to show KBUF is running warm by comparison! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Although the euro shows cooler than normal conditions at the end of it's run, greatest - anomalies look to remain south (as of now).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Meanwhile, the next incoming trough will be amplifying across the Central Plains and Upper Great Lakes Wednesday. This upper level trough will deepen and eventually form a cut off low over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. Said upper level pattern will support a surface low and associated surface fronts to form over the Upper Great Lakes. The surface low is then progged to deepen and advance northeast into lower Ontario, Canada Thursday. Overall this will initially push a warm front across the region Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday/Saturday. While, model guidance packages are relaying the same scenarios, their timing of the features are different between the 12Z long range guidances packages and therefore, expect chances for rain showers to increase Thursday with the initial passage of the warm front. Followed by a further increase in PoPs Friday and Saturday with the likelihood of the cold frontal passage. Showers will primarily remain in the form of rain since the air mass overhead will be primed with above normal temperatures. In the wake of the frontal passage, much colder air will advect in across the region dropping temperatures down to around -6C at 850mb. That being said, the cold air aloft, along with leftover synoptic moisture and the trough axis crossing overhead lake effect precipitation can be expected late Saturday and Saturday night, though the specifics this far out are too hard to pin down. Otherwise, most of the period will remain above normal with regards to temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. However, the cold frontal passage late in the week will modulate temperatures downward for highs in the mid 40s across the higher terrain and low 50s across the lake plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: wolfie bustin out the new maps this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A bit different than NOAA. With big impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Those are obviously heights.. Every model shows a deep trough, greatest anomalies to the south..(at least initially) After this time frame who knows lol GFS also shows a clipper like system D 8-9 Fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 A lot of the cold is gone on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Yup..lol It will obviously change, hopefully.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 On 11/6/2021 at 10:52 AM, TugHillMatt said: @Syrmax, during your commutes to Oswego from Northern Onondaga county, did you notice much difference in snowfall/snowpack between Oswego and our area? I know the strip between, from Fulton to Volney, jackpots. However, I have a couple of colleagues who live in Oswego and commute to Bville...and they say that we often have more snow than they do up there. The only times this isn't the case are when Oswego gets hammered by those close-to-the-lake tea kettle snows. I'd generally agree that Oswego proper has less snow than here often. However, between here and there, more snow in So. Oswego cty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Euro did have 1 wintry event off to the east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like the computer models are starting to pick up the Matt effect, by next update I expect to see some oranges and reds popping up between all that blue.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Colder air will arrive later Friday through Saturday as the trough slowly progresses into the Great Lakes. The deeper cold air will remain over the western Great Lakes through Saturday, so while it will trend colder, precipitation type is likely to stay mainly rain in wrap around and lake effect showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like a decent amount of rain this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Hey all, I am now a proud owner of a home in Cicero, NY around 10 miles North of Syracuse on I81 Still shuffling between Liberty NY in Sullivan County's Catskills and Lynbrook Long Island (Nassau County ) 10 minutes from JFK airport. I do have a weather cam set up there to monitor my property and snow. House getting a new kitchen so won't be there for an extended period of time until the end of December Looking forward to sharing observations with my 3rd acurite weather station and really seeing LES Be interesting to see how Cicero ranks against neighboring areas I know of like Camilius, Manlius and Brewerton in comparison Most interesting to me will be to see is if Cicero outperforms downtown Syracuse (Snowiest USA major city. I can see historical records for SYR but not Cicero If you are around Cicero give me a shout here My wife and I love the area and I am happy to be there and as I might have said in an earlier post; I can also go to Liberty NY or Lynbrook Long Island if that is where the snow action is. Hopefully, fun times ahead! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 minute ago, sferic said: Hey all, I am now a proud owner of a home in Cicero, NY around 10 miles North of Syracuse on I81 Still shuffling between Liberty NY in Sullivan County's Catskills and Lynbrook Long Island (Nassau County ) 10 minutes from JFK airport. I do have a weather cam set up there to monitor my property and snow. House getting a new kitchen so won't be there for an extended period of time until the end of December Looking forward to sharing observations with my 3rd acurite weather station and really seeing LES Be interesting to see how Cicero how neighboring areas I know of like Camilius, Manlius and Brewerton do in comparison Most interesting to me will be to see is if Cicero outperforms downtown Syracuse (Snowiest USA major city. I can see historical records for SYR but not Cicero If you are around Cicero give me a shout here My wife and I love the area and I am happy to be there and as I might have said in an earlier post; I can also go to Liberty NY or Lynbrook Long Island if that is where the snow action is. Hopefully, fun times ahead! Welcome aboard.. Nice to see the"upstate" forum grow.. Good luck with your move.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 Went disc golfing this morning in Holland just past peak fall conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 Literally the most perfect fall morning. Warmed up throughout the round, but very little wind beautiful sunshine. Give me this for another couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Yet again.... it's warmer here than Pennsylvania, Delaware, Virginia, Baltimore, etc... Becoming a very common thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Beautiful outside...but if I wanted to be warmer than places 100s of miles south, I wouldn't have moved to Upstate New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Literally the most perfect fall morning. Warmed up throughout the round, but very little wind beautiful sunshine. Give me this for another couple weeks. Enjoy it because you won't be seeing it again until late April. Only 4 days of nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 I’ll post some thoughts this evening but I’m bearish on any sustained cold prior to Thanksgiving week. Looks more like any cold is behind a front then warms to normal or a bit above after a few days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Cool down on the euro is more of an average down lol Then SE ridge returns.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Yeah not seeing much to get excited about synoptically any time soon. Some of the favored lake belts might get few scraps at times. I'm betting on a non-white Thanksgiving for most of us away from the lakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Yeah. While it’s a little disappointing and I’m chomping at the bit, we are probably better off waiting until after Thanksgiving for a cold spell. Just goes to show you can’t ever trust the LR. EVER! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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