Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[wolfie09]

All I know is I better get my inch..

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

I think it's all relative though to the pattern. You plot this h5 pattern and look up in history what it looked like and you will get the same result. Fact being, a -pna that deep, (I think I saw it's close to a record for amplitude) will make it hostile here regardless of a -nao. You just can't have a -pna that deep and expect wall to wall winter in the east. I'm not sure this is the new norm, but more inclined that global warming is just creating extreme cases of weather. Heck people living in Seattle are going to have a stretch of winter coming up that they haven't seen in years. Just seems like due to global warming, when we get big cold dumps, it goes wild and same with warmth, there seems to be no inbetween. 

Yeah, I posted something similar yesterday in reference to extremes...not just in weather...but in the world in general these days. I would say those weather extremes have been more biased towards warmth and wind though. I don't have scientific statistics to back this up...but seems heat records are being broken left and right. Rarely do we seem to hear/read about cold records these days..

In reference to local climo, looking at statistics, you will see how this century so far is breaking heat records consistently in Upstate New York.

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

All I know is I better get my inch..

Looks like they dropped the one inch band that was heading in my direction. It seemed like quite the weenieish call anyways....................

[tombo82685]

Anways, moving forward, definitely a can kick in the ensembles with getting a more normal temp wise airmass. I know we don't need normal temps to snow around here. The h5 look still supports se ridge, and as long as it doesn't go nuts, is not a bad pattern for here. But, ensembles that far out are over smoothing the means, so we won't know how robust the se ridge is until we get closer in. One of the issue for this pattern stalling is the mjo, well stalling. Models were to ambitious with plowing this through the base state and emerging into the Whem. Now we can see they are adjusting towards the base state which is just reinforcing the same aleutian ridge. Below is a loop off my weather forum someone posted. It shows the last 6 or 8 days of the gfs VP maps for tropical convection. Note how further out it had potential convection into the whem, which supports a phase 7 getting into phase 8 mjo. Look at how that has corrected towards the base state in the maritime continent which is phase 6. The cyclone that developed out there didn't help the cause 

 

[wolfie09]

Wind swept lake effect snow will start this period as a cold front
pushes across the region Wednesday morning. Off Lake Erie, veering
winds will send this snow band down towards Ski Country. There is a
wealth of dry air towards the top of the snow DGZ, and shallow cloud
depth will yield around an inch of snowfall Wednesday here. East of
Lake Ontario, a lake effect snow band starting near the SLV
Wednesday morning will dip towards the Tug Hill post front by early
afternoon. Slightly more favorable snow parameters, with deeper
moisture within the snow DGZ...that will result in several inches of
snow accumulating across the Tug Hill region.

Upstream lake connections will continue Wednesday Night with a
narrow band of lake effect snow south and southeast of Lake Ontario.
The band of snow may move enough within a falling lake induced
equilibrium environment to limit snow Wednesday Night to one to
three inches southeast of Lake Ontario. Building surface high
pressure from the Ohio Valley will send this snow band, now
weakening further due to the influx of drier air, back east of Lake
Ontario Thursday where it will diminish to flurries near Watertown

[tombo82685]

Can also see on the roundy OLR linear regression maps how convection has stalled in phase 6, which I highlighted in black. The subsidence zone in green and the base state in blue. 

 

With the mjo being stuck on phase 6 borderline 7 it's reinforcing the same pattern over and over again. Below is a illustration of what is happening. You have the convection in the maritimes that is stuck. The persistent convection continues to further enhance the big low north of japan. The wavebreaks from pieces of energy rotating around the large upper level low then in turn enhance the aleutian ridge. The amplitude of the aleutian ridge and placement further enhance the -pna which then further enhances the se ridge. The -nao is the one caveat that is trying to suppress the se ridge. If we didn't have that we would be laying out on lake oneida drinking martinis. 

 

 

[tombo82685]

This is what you need to watch for moving forward, these h5 pieces need to move east and that will only happen once we get a progression of the mjo, if it does so. I believe it will, but may take until sometime in early January.

 

The Chi vp 200 off the cfs is still bullish on a push into the whem as noted below. Black highlighted area is your zone of convection. Green is your zone of subsidence. Can see the general progression here that changes would be in early january, "hopefully"

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Can also see on the roundy OLR linear regression maps how convection has stalled in phase 6, which I highlighted in black. The subsidence zone in green and the base state in blue. 

 

With the mjo being stuck on phase 6 borderline 7 it's reinforcing the same pattern over and over again. Below is a illustration of what is happening. You have the convection in the maritimes that is stuck. The persistent convection continues to further enhance the big low north of japan. The wavebreaks from pieces of energy rotating around the large upper level low then in turn enhance the aleutian ridge. The amplitude of the aleutian ridge and placement further enhance the -pna which then further enhances the se ridge. The -nao is the one caveat that is trying to suppress the se ridge. If we didn't have that we would be laying out on lake oneida drinking martinis. 

 

 

We have seen this happen over and over again for so many Winters. Why is it becoming such a common theme in our Decembers now!?!

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I posted something similar yesterday in reference to extremes...not just in weather...but in the world in general these days. I would say those weather extremes have been more biased towards warmth and wind though. I don't have scientific statistics to back this up...but seems heat records are being broken left and right. Rarely do we seem to hear/read about cold records these days..

In reference to local climo, looking at statistics, you will see how this century so far is breaking heat records consistently in Upstate New York.

Check out Antartica for your record cold fix. Just don't move there as you'll probably cause the entire ice sheet to melt in short order.  

Bit OT but sort of fits the general convo here:

Being older than many here, and having observed and lived through long stretches of shite winters that didn't become "the new normal", I keep most of my powder dry on "that" subject.  Though some stats on the subject are compelling IMO. 

I do wonder how much our perceptions are changed due to the effect of today's pandemic world of upset and controversy.  Becomes much easier to accept the notion that everything is changed / in turmoil as we are conditioned by events and narratives to "believe" things that fit the general tone. And I say this more in reference to non-wx enthusiasts i converse with out in the "real world."

[tombo82685]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

We have seen this happen over and over again for so many Winters. Why is it becoming such a common theme in our Decembers now!?!

Well nina in general favors convection in the maritimes which supports Aleutain ridge/-pna. In general though, with the oceans warming, there is just so much warm water stacked up in the western IO into the maritimes that convection just goes nuts in these area. We are getting very little push into whem zones. this winter makes sense due to nina and all the cold water. Cold water= bad for convection, think hurricanes and tropical storms 

[TugHillMatt]

The MJO and the Polar Vortex.... They have been such huge players in extremes.

[tombo82685]

12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I posted something similar yesterday in reference to extremes...not just in weather...but in the world in general these days. I would say those weather extremes have been more biased towards warmth and wind though. I don't have scientific statistics to back this up...but seems heat records are being broken left and right. Rarely do we seem to hear/read about cold records these days..

In reference to local climo, looking at statistics, you will see how this century so far is breaking heat records consistently in Upstate New York.

it def has, the warmth has outnumbered the cold like 5 to 1. For every one cold month we get, it's like 4 consecutive warm months. If you note though, alot of the warmth is from nighttime lows.  My thought to that is, just warmer oceans, more moisture and heat content in the atmosphere leading to warmer night time lows

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Check out Antartica for your record cold fix. Just don't move there as you'll probably cause the entire ice sheet to melt in short order.  

Bit OT but sort of fits the general convo here:

Being older than many here, and having observed and lived through long stretches of shite winters that didn't become "the new normal", I keep most of my powder dry on "that" subject.  Though some stats on the subject are compelling IMO. 

I do wonder how much our perceptions are changed due to the effect of today's pandemic world of upset and controversy.  Becomes much easier to accept the notion that everything is changed / in turmoil as we are conditioned by events and narratives to "believe" things that fit the general tone. And I say this more in reference to non-wx enthusiasts i converse with out in the "real world."

Thanks for sharing. I have thought similarly as well. I think most of us on here agree the media feeds into this. I also have my own beliefs/thoughts on why we are seeing more extremes but will keep those to myself.

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

it def has, the warmth has outnumbered the cold like 5 to 1. For every one cold month we get, it's like 4 consecutive warm months. If you note though, alot of the warmth is from nighttime lows.  My thought to that is, just warmer oceans, more moisture and heat content in the atmosphere leading to warmer night time lows

That, and the UHI holding onto that heat 

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Can also see on the roundy OLR linear regression maps how convection has stalled in phase 6, which I highlighted in black. The subsidence zone in green and the base state in blue. 

 

With the mjo being stuck on phase 6 borderline 7 it's reinforcing the same pattern over and over again. Below is a illustration of what is happening. You have the convection in the maritimes that is stuck. The persistent convection continues to further enhance the big low north of japan. The wavebreaks from pieces of energy rotating around the large upper level low then in turn enhance the aleutian ridge. The amplitude of the aleutian ridge and placement further enhance the -pna which then further enhances the se ridge. The -nao is the one caveat that is trying to suppress the se ridge. If we didn't have that we would be laying out on lake oneida drinking martinis. 

 

 

Yep this reminds me of 2011-2012 almost to a tee. It was one of the top 2 analogs. We had a decent 2 week stretch in January then nothing the rest of the winter. 

[tombo82685]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for sharing. I have thought similarly as well. I think most of us on here agree the media feeds into this. I also have my own beliefs/thoughts on why we are seeing more extremes but will keep those to myself.

That, and the UHI holding onto that heat 

Yea, but it's also an issue away from UHI areas too, it's everywhere. 

[tombo82685]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep this reminds me of 2011-2012 almost to a tee. It was one of the top 2 analogs. 

The sst in fall were a close match to that year as well. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

The sst in fall were a close match to that year as well. 

I was in denial to list that season as an analog because it was such an anomaly but the potential was always there. I still think it doesn't end up like that one. Would be fun to read the melts on the forum though. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was in denial to list that season as an analog because it was such an anomaly but the potential was always there. Still doubt it happens though. Would be fun to read the melts on the forum though. 

You're like the little brother of the subforum.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You're like the little brother of the subforum.

I meant mainly the New England forum but yes. 

[TugHillMatt]

12Z meso runs are picking up more on the possibility of some Multi-lake connections for lake effect. My concern is the strong, gusty winds that often create shear and limit snow growth. Doesn't look like a particularly exciting lake effect "event" but perhaps could give us some white for the holidays (if it doesn't all melt in the upper 30s on Friday).

[tombo82685]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was in denial to list that season as an analog because it was such an anomaly but the potential was always there. I still think it doesn't end up like that one. Would be fun to read the melts on the forum though. 

who do you think will go first and have the best melt? From what I have experienced the brief period i've been on here, I'd say:

TughillMatt is by far the clear favorite and what I'm placing my money on at Vegas. He loses it when syracuse is 5 above the forecasted temp. Imagine if he gets less than 50" of snow this winter. We may see a melt of prolific proportions that rival the clark griswald christmas eve rant. I could see him throwing chairs across the room and kicking large sticks outside in his yard. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

Yep.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

who do you think will go first and have the best melt? From what I have experienced the brief period i've been on here, I'd say:

TughillMatt is by far the clear favorite and what I'm placing my money on at Vegas. He loses it when syracuse is 5 above the forecasted temp. Imagine if he gets less than 50" of snow this winter. We may see a melt of prolific proportions that rival the clark griswald christmas eve rant. I could see him throwing chairs across the room and kicking large sticks outside in his yard. 

 

It will be a close match between @TugHillMattand @rochesterdave. I've also seen some good melts from @lakeeffectkid383and some epic ones from @WNash But his are understandable as he hasn't really gotten a good LES yet north of Buffalo. 

Nothing beats the New England melts though, those are crazy. 

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

who do you think will go first and have the best melt? From what I have experienced the brief period i've been on here, I'd say:

TughillMatt is by far the clear favorite and what I'm placing my money on at Vegas. He loses it when syracuse is 5 above the forecasted temp. Imagine if he gets less than 50" of snow this winter. We may see a melt of prolific proportions that rival the clark griswald christmas eve rant. I could see him throwing chairs across the room and kicking large sticks outside in his yard. 

 

I hate that you think so poorly of me.

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It will be a close match between @TugHillMattand @rochesterdave. I've also seen some good melts from @lakeeffectkid383and the best ones are from @WNash But hes are understandable as he hasn't really gotten a good LES yet north of Buffalo. 

Nothing beats the New England melts though, those are crazy. 

He hasn't met Freak yet.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

He hasn't met Freak yet.

Totally forgot about him, he has a chance. I'd put the odds at about 33.33333% 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Totally forgot about him, he has a chance. I'd put the odds at about 33.33333% 

So who gets the extra .01%? Never mind, don't answer that. TBD....

[tombo82685]

9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I hate that you think so poorly of me.

Actually the other way around. I think very highly of you. Someone who can melt, over not getting snow,  is someone I’d like to have a beer with and respect highly of 

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Actually the other way around. I think very highly of you. Someone who can melt, over not getting snow,  is someone I’d like to have a beer with and respect highly of 

LOL... literally. Let me guess... because you would be more entertained as I get increasingly inebriated?

I AM Irish on both sides....so let's just say I am quite the passionate individual!

[Syrmax]

26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

who do you think will go first and have the best melt? From what I have experienced the brief period i've been on here, I'd say:

TughillMatt is by far the clear favorite and what I'm placing my money on at Vegas. He loses it when syracuse is 5 above the forecasted temp. Imagine if he gets less than 50" of snow this winter. We may see a melt of prolific proportions that rival the clark griswald christmas eve rant. I could see him throwing chairs across the room and kicking large sticks outside in his yard. 

 

Matt's future about late January: