Voyager Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 18 currently as I walk out the door... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 At least the Christmas/boxing day timeframe has something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: At least the Christmas/boxing day timeframe has something to look at. Yes because the rest of the run after is cutter city. The ensembles are taking a beating. I’m starting to face reality that we’re not going to see much if a winter this year, save for a few cold shots here and there. Me thinks an an all time low snowfall or in the top 5 might be achievable this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Working at Skidmore college in Saratoga and it resembles winter here, solid glacial pack and glaze encased snow still on the trees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes because the rest of the run after is cutter city. The ensembles are taking a beating. I’m starting to face reality that we’re not going to see much if a winter this year, save for a few cold shots here and there. Me thinks an an all time low snowfall or in the top 5 might be achievable this year. I just looked through photos from last year and it resembled a common theme from the last decade. Minimal snow before +/-2nd week of January, then it turned into a great winter that held a deep snowpack into mid-March. It’s easy to get discouraged by late December, but we still have +/-3 months of possibilities in front of us! As Joe Bastardi used to say: “Enjoy the weather. It’s the only weather you have.” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 SW winds....lol...Sizzle on par with NC and TN...14 degrees warmer than DC and 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Long Island. The ultimate microclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: It beat the crap out of the big ones on the last one. But I agree, it’s not good 4-5 days out. Lol, my point is, outside of 2 days, (feel like even bad models should have a good grip of the pattern inside 2 days) the model is not good. Go read any afd or SPC forecast discussion you never hear them say "well I'm going to take the icon solution over the gfs and euro" Heck it's not even mentioned. I don't even think there are trackable statistics on how it performs. I just think people use the Icon to look at when the big 4 aren't showing what they want to see, so then they reduce down to tier 2 modelling. It's like in life in the dating world. Coming out of college looking for women, you don't settle for anything less than an 8. Once to 40 you say to yourself, eee I'll take 2 5's instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 6Z GFS looks even more ish than the Icon did for Christmas. it does? The 6z gfs has rain for that area while the icon was bringing the north pole to lysander. Now the day after, yea it's snowy. But the post above was made for the Christmas eve and Christmas day which no model currently supports that take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: it does? The 6z gfs has rain for that area while the icon was bringing the north pole to lysander. Now the day after, yea it's snowy. But the post above was made for the Christmas eve and Christmas day which no model currently supports that take. I don't know what the heck model run I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Models are really all over. This is Sunday Snow game at foxboro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol, my point is, outside of 2 days, (feel like even bad models should have a good grip of the pattern inside 2 days) the model is not good. Go read any afd or SPC forecast discussion you never hear them say "well I'm going to take the icon solution over the gfs and euro" Heck it's not even mentioned. I don't even think there are trackable statistics on how it performs. I just think people use the Icon to look at when the big 4 aren't showing what they want to see, so then they reduce down to tier 2 modelling. It's like in life in the dating world. Coming out of college looking for women, you don't settle for anything less than an 8. Once to 40 you say to yourself, eee I'll take 2 5's instead. This is the thing bro..We aren't like the weenies down south..This is a weather board and we post maps from many different models..Good or bad.. Icon is actually usually the stingiest..For the most part we are pretty level headed. Having "stats" means nothing.. Canadian is garbage but has stats lol How it do last event? Lol Exactly..Icon was the only model to show mixing up here, only one. Even the NWS took mixing out of the forecast because of the"big boys".. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 KBUF writes how poorly the models have been. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The global models continue to have poor continuity resolving the evolution of shortwaves passing through a general zonal flow across the country. The period of focus for precipitation will be Friday Night through Saturday Night, with rain snow at onset becoming plain rain...before ending as a rain snow mix. However the speed of these shortwaves, and their influence on the broader synoptic pattern is yet to be resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the thing bro..We aren't like the weenies down south..This is a weather board and we post maps from many different models..Good or bad.. Icon is actually usually the stingiest..For the most part we are pretty level headed. Having "stats" means nothing.. Canadian is garbage but has stats lol How it do last event? Lol Exactly..Icon was the only model to show mixing up here, only one. Even the NWS took mixing out of the forecast because of the"big boys".. Good point. I think most of us weenies expected significant mixing due to a variety of factors, including climo, system track, cold air availability, and knowledge of past similar events. NWS did also as virtually anyone paying attention realizes the "warm nose" frequently overperforms...or is under-modeled. I was slightly hopeful of a whiter outcome based on the relative weakness of the system but that didn't prevent the warm nose from dominating the event here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF writes how poorly the models have been. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The global models continue to have poor continuity resolving the evolution of shortwaves passing through a general zonal flow across the country. The period of focus for precipitation will be Friday Night through Saturday Night, with rain snow at onset becoming plain rain...before ending as a rain snow mix. However the speed of these shortwaves, and their influence on the broader synoptic pattern is yet to be resolved. It's no surprise...all these junk waves zipping along make it hard for them to nail down. Just shows how the science world of meteorology is still a huge work in progress of trying to determine the huge amount of variables affecting the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the thing bro..We aren't like the weenies down south..This is a weather board and we post maps from many different models..Good or bad.. Icon is actually usually the stingiest..For the most part we are pretty level headed. Having "stats" means nothing.. Canadian is garbage but has stats lol How it do last event? Lol Exactly..Icon was the only model to show mixing up here, only one. Even the NWS took mixing out of the forecast because of the"big boys".. Yeah, we here definitely don't "buy a model run" because it shows us getting the most snow. I would say we're actually more on the other end and look at them with skepticism and "what could go wrong." It's not a "negative perspective" for most. I know, admittedly, for me, I can definitely be negative about model runs because of my weenieism and being burned (in part to the THM effect ) Tombo will realize this culture of our subforum as the winter progresses. We like to discuss modelology and recognize some of the biases the models have in relation to our local Upstate NY climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol, my point is, outside of 2 days, (feel like even bad models should have a good grip of the pattern inside 2 days) the model is not good. Go read any afd or SPC forecast discussion you never hear them say "well I'm going to take the icon solution over the gfs and euro" Heck it's not even mentioned. I don't even think there are trackable statistics on how it performs. I just think people use the Icon to look at when the big 4 aren't showing what they want to see, so then they reduce down to tier 2 modelling. It's like in life in the dating world. Coming out of college looking for women, you don't settle for anything less than an 8. Once to 40 you say to yourself, eee I'll take 2 5's instead. 39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol, my point is, outside of 2 days, (feel like even bad models should have a good grip of the pattern inside 2 days) the model is not good. Go read any afd or SPC forecast discussion you never hear them say "well I'm going to take the icon solution over the gfs and euro" Heck it's not even mentioned. I don't even think there are trackable statistics on how it performs. I just think people use the Icon to look at when the big 4 aren't showing what they want to see, so then they reduce down to tier 2 modelling. It's like in life in the dating world. Coming out of college looking for women, you don't settle for anything less than an 8. Once to 40 you say to yourself, eee I'll take 2 5's instead. Believe me, the ICON hardly ever shows me what “I’d like to see”. It rarely drops clown maps like last nights. As Wolfie said, it’s the stingiest. And imho often the most accurate with snow totals. The verification stuff is meaningless when it comes to a R/S line in WNY. It got an update in 19 from what I recall. Besides, the old NAM was low resolution and was probably the best model this planet ever saw for big storms in the NE. Each one has a place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the thing bro..We aren't like the weenies down south..This is a weather board and we post maps from many different models..Good or bad.. Icon is actually usually the stingiest..For the most part we are pretty level headed. Having "stats" means nothing.. Canadian is garbage but has stats lol How it do last event? Lol Exactly..Icon was the only model to show mixing up here, only one. Even the NWS took mixing out of the forecast because of the"big boys".. Which goes back to my point that inside 2 days, most models should have a good point as to what is going to happen. Obviously some models will be better at picking up mesoscale factors. This is the ICON for the same lead time right now for this past weekends event. This is 4 days out exactly where we are right now with this saturday Icon from 12z last tuesday valid for 18z this past saturday, it showed syracuse with partly cloudy skies, with you sitting on your deck soaking up some rays flipping weenies on your grill Now the ggem for same period and same 12z run tuesday. One does not look like the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Believe me, the ICON hardly ever shows me what “I’d like to see”. It rarely drops clown maps like last nights. As Wolfie said, it’s the stingiest. And imho often the most accurate with snow totals. The verification stuff is meaningless when it comes to a R/S line in WNY. It got an update in 19 from what I recall. Besides, the old NAM was low resolution and was probably the best model this planet ever saw for big storms in the NE. Each one has a place Which is perfectly fine, people are allowed to discuss whatever they want. Me personally, I don't look at the icon, it's just not a useful model to me outside 2 days. Same with the nam, outside a day it shifts to much because its a mesoscale model and any sort of convection just throws the model into euphoria. I just think people get to invested and knee jerk react to quickly over one set of bad model runs and don't look at the overall pattern and take into consideration there clime. No point in getting all fired up over something you can't control. Heck I had people telling me on Saturday that was the last snow I was going to see snow for a while. Now we are frolicking in snow building parson's brown snowman while giggling over the icon and 6z gfs snow event for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 My point was you made it seem like we are model huggers that only show what we want it to show but in reality it's usually the complete opposite.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Which is perfectly fine, people are allowed to discuss whatever they want. I just think people get to invested and knee jerk react to quickly over one set of bad model runs and don't look at the overall pattern and take into consideration there clime. No point in getting all fired up over something you can't control. Heck I had people telling me on Saturday that was the last snow I was going to see snow for a while. Now we are frolicking in snow building parson's brown snowman while giggling over the icon and 6z gfs snow event for this weekend. I still haven’t had my first inch. I’m a junky in withdrawal. I can’t be held responsible for my words. Wait until someone starts posting those BTV lake effect maps or the Brazilian model. Seriously, we’re well aware of our ‘imbalances’. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Which is perfectly fine, people are allowed to discuss whatever they want. Me personally, I don't look at the icon, it's just not a useful model to me outside 2 days. Same with the nam, outside a day it shifts to much because its a mesoscale model and any sort of convection just throws the model into euphoria. I just think people get to invested and knee jerk react to quickly over one set of bad model runs and don't look at the overall pattern and take into consideration there clime. No point in getting all fired up over something you can't control. Heck I had people telling me on Saturday that was the last snow I was going to see snow for a while. Now we are frolicking in snow building parson's brown snowman while giggling over the icon and 6z gfs snow event for this weekend. See bold print. You are frolicking...the rest of us are squinting...just to find a snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: I still haven’t had my first inch. I’m a junky in withdrawal. I can’t be held responsible for my words. Wait until someone starts posting those BTV lake effect maps or the Brazilian model. Seriously, we’re well aware of our ‘imbalances’. Lol Thats perfectly fine lol, this is a weather forum, thats what you do. I'm just speaking for myself, I don't look at those models at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: See bold print. You are frolicking...the rest of us are squinting...just to find a snowflake. Lol well I needed to catch up to you guys. You all have been hit well with lake effect. I had like 10 broom pushers that never mounted more than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Lol well I needed to catch up to you guys. You all have been hit well with lake effect. I had like 10 broom pushers that never mounted more than an inch See bold print again. If you think what we've seen is "well" then bless your southern heart.... LOL ... I hope this winter you and the rest of us get to see some solid lake effect events. You'll quickly understand how the start to this winter has been atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: My point was you made it seem like we are model huggers that only show what we want it to show but in reality it's usually the complete opposite.. I didn't mean it like that, and I'm sorry if it came off that way. All I meant is, if you post a lesser tier model, you should also be aware of the accuracy of it and it's downfalls too. Just seems like they are posted more due to straw grasping because the big 4 aren't showing what they want to be shown. As noted above, Icon for this past weekend had you not even getting precip while the big 4 showed a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: See bold print again. If you think what we've seen is "well" then bless your southern heart.... LOL ... I hope this winter you and the rest of us get to see some solid lake effect events. You'll quickly understand how the start to this winter has been atrocious. Lol well I guess well was a poor choice, I guess I meant you had lake effect events where you could atleast shovel lol. Everyone east of the Rockies is horrible, but what do you expect with a trough kissing the equator out west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Also have to take into consideration I'm from SEPA and just moved up here lol. So having 16" of snow right now and snow pack is not a usual thing for me. I've just learned from living there to just appreciate snow anytime it falls, cause you never know if you will see it again for that winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Lol well I guess well was a poor choice, I guess I meant you had lake effect events where you could atleast shovel lol. Everyone east of the Rockies is horrible, but what do you expect with a trough kissing the equator out west. Yeah, that -PNA on steroids is killing us. I lucked out right before Thanksgiving with that one event that could be shoveled but that's it. I think many across CNY and WNY are still waiting to use a shovel. Heck, we've barely had to use scrapers on frost. All these cloudy nights or warm fronts coming through overnight... The climate of Upstate NY is going through some wonky things...I would wager moreso than other locales. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Snip... Heck I had people telling me on Saturday that was the last snow I was going to see snow for a while. I saw that...The area you are in usually performs much better than further south into CNY/WNY in this type pattern for the usual reasons. May not result in significant snowfall but latitude, proximity to retreating, marginal cold air sources and geographic effects usually result in whiter outcomes as fast moving weak systems zip along in the flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, that -PNA on steroids is killing us. I lucked out right before Thanksgiving with that one event that could be shoveled but that's it. I think many across CNY and WNY are still waiting to use a shovel. Heck, we've barely had to use scrapers on frost. All these cloudy nights or warm fronts coming through overnight... The climate of Upstate NY is going through some wonky things...I would wager moreso than other locales. I think it's all relative though to the pattern. You plot this h5 pattern and look up in history what it looked like and you will get the same result. Fact being, a -pna that deep, (I think I saw it's close to a record for amplitude) will make it hostile here regardless of a -nao. You just can't have a -pna that deep and expect wall to wall winter in the east. I'm not sure this is the new norm, but more inclined that global warming is just creating extreme cases of weather. Heck people living in Seattle are going to have a stretch of winter coming up that they haven't seen in years. Just seems like due to global warming, when we get big cold dumps, it goes wild and same with warmth, there seems to be no inbetween. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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