DeltaT13 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last year started Christmas Eve. Had 30” from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day. I'm going to be nitpicky, I think you got at least half of that on the day after Christmas. The day I did the monster 10 hour chase! One of the best weather days I've had around here in many years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Light snow on Xmas morning is better than rain lol It could continue to get weaker and be a non event for the most part.. Obviously for WNY they need a bit farther south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Light snow on Xmas morning is better than rain lol It could continue to get weaker and be a non event for the most part.. Obviously for WNY they need a bit farther south.. GFS ALMOST gets most of us to snow, or is slowly trying…while I’m not seriously thinking anything will happen, I am liking the period after Xmas for some deeper longer lasting cold with opportunities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: GFS ALMOST gets most of us to snow, or is slowly trying…while I’m not seriously thinking anything will happen, I am liking the period after Xmas for some deeper longer lasting cold with opportunities Yup. Models may be starting to correct to a bit more of a wintry pattern. Lots of minor chances and thread-the-needle situations. If we get the deep troughs or cold (like 12Z GFS is showing) it could lead to suppression city. But it would at least provide cold for lake effect opportunities and perhaps some clippers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Euro playing the Grinch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I fight thinking about it....but I can't help thinking it will be right. EVERY time we have these systems, there is ONE model that goes against the others by taking it way north....and that model wins out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Regardelss of what happens over the weekend, it is looking a little better for many of us to have a patchy white Christmas eve after some snow showers on Thursday. I'm...dreaming....of a.... Traces of White Christmas.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 We're getting there for a legit. possibility on Christmas. Looks much better than yesterday. We'll see if the Euro caves...and ultimately the actual atmosphere works out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Yeah the models are really struggling, I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Looks like Jan 1st is the pattern change, around there. That's next Saturday, not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Light snowfall forecast for Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Light snowfall forecast for Wednesday.. Look at that little stripe of 1 inch they have going through N. Cayuga and into Lysander. Will it happen? Nah...but, take that and melt it in your sauna, @Syrmax! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Per usual, Sizzlecuse 4 degrees warmer than forecasted, 7 to 10 degrees warmer than everywhere else in Central NY, and warmest in the state. 35 to 36 degrees here in the NW burbs. I really think the airport has an intentionally skewed warm sensor. I have contacted BGM NWS about this a couple times and it's "been corrected." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Leaving Liberty NY for CIcero Thursday, hopefully a couple of inches over the xmas wknd I love being able via PLEX to watch the local Syracuse TV channels wherever I am. Good mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Grinch here. If I had to guess, in this pattern, I’d go with something like the ICON. If there’s winter wx, it’ll be with over running precip in the typical spots- ENY, ADKs. Hope I’m wrong!! Wish we were all in Lake Tahoe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Grinch here. If I had to guess, in this pattern, I’d go with something like the ICON. If there’s winter wx, it’ll be with over running precip in the typical spots- ENY, ADKs. Hope I’m wrong!! Wish we were all in Lake Tahoe! I was just looking at webcams from Lake Tahoe. They have a deeper snowpack than the total amount of snow I feel like we're going to get this whole winter. I chuckle and feel the need to take an anti-depressant after reading BGM's discussions. Anything snow-related is described as: little, scattered, minimal, perhaps, weak. The only thing that was discussed with almost assured certainty: WIND on Wednesday. P.S. To be fair, that was from this morning's discussion. The PM update is a bit more enthusiastic and appears to be written by a bit more a weather weenie... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I can barely contain myself. Chicago's traces got nothing on mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Dropped a full 2° wrt forecasted Xmas temps lol At least they added snow in the mix.. Friday Night Snow showers likely between 7pm and 1am, then rain and snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Christmas Day Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Not sure how current this is.. The long wave pattern remains generally locked into a western North America trough through the long term forecast. A broad ridge is thus centered over the Great Lakes, however weaknesses in the ridge are common and transient through the long term forecast period. Each of these weak short wave troughs that attempts to overtop the ridge will result in some form of warm advection and light precipitation chances that will trend more toward liquid than frozen with above normal temperatures through the extended forecast. While timing of each wave is not well agreed upon in the operational model runs and individual models, using a multi-model ensemble mean approach resulted in focusing PoPs on the Friday night to Saturday night period with drying thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Dropped a full 2° wrt forecasted Xmas temps lol At least they added snow in the mix.. Friday Night Snow showers likely between 7pm and 1am, then rain and snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Christmas Day Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Not sure how current this is.. The long wave pattern remains generally locked into a western North America trough through the long term forecast. A broad ridge is thus centered over the Great Lakes, however weaknesses in the ridge are common and transient through the long term forecast period. Each of these weak short wave troughs that attempts to overtop the ridge will result in some form of warm advection and light precipitation chances that will trend more toward liquid than frozen with above normal temperatures through the extended forecast. While timing of each wave is not well agreed upon in the operational model runs and individual models, using a multi-model ensemble mean approach resulted in focusing PoPs on the Friday night to Saturday night period with drying thereafter. BUF's updated forecast high for Christmas for N. Cayuga is mid 40s, while BGM's for Onondaga is Upper 30s. BUF is clearly being more cautious until the Euro shows any signs of a farther south track. I am thinking the dreams of Buffwx and Syrmax to sit in their pools in bathing suits on Christmas day in 60 degrees temps may be dashed either way. It's going to be a raw, damp Christmas despite whatever is falling from the skies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Weeks 3-4, thats exactly what you want for our area in terms of synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Yeah sounds about right, you can clearly see who the WPC is siding with lol Quite a bit weaker though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 The weeklies settle the PV into Hudson Bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Weeklies are usually only good for 2-3 weeks out but here are the Euro weeklies from today. The Euro has been the best long range model by quite a bit. This is for first 2 weeks of January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Weeklies are usually only good for 2-3 weeks out but here are the Euro weeklies from today. The Euro has been the best long range model by quite a bit. This is for first 2 weeks of January. That's a beautiful look for having cold and an active pattern. The "squeeze play" of a slight SE ridge holding back suppression, and some solid cold pushing in to limit cutters. Still some risk, but I like how the cold slowly settles in over the course of those weeks. The pushing in of the cold air combined with the active flow could lead to beautiful things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: That's a beautiful look for having cold and an active pattern. The "squeeze play" of a slight SE ridge holding back suppression, and some solid cold pushing in to limit cutters. Still some risk, but I like how the cold slowly settles in over the course of those weeks. The pushing in of the cold air combined with the active flow could lead to beautiful things. The last 2 weeks of January bring back a similar pattern to what we have now but thats way out there, not worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The last 2 weeks of January bring back a similar pattern to what we have now but thats way out there, not worth looking at. Yeah, I've read lots of rumblings about us returning to the same ol' crap once mid January comes. That would be extremely disappointing. However, the same pattern from one month can yield different results another month. With less low-level warmth around the lakes and hopefully a solid snowcover across the northern part of the country, I could see this junk pattern being friendlier to winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 27/5 for todays splits with a solid 4” otg after sublimation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes...we all know you had an amazingly white Christmas eve/Christmas last year. I would love to read @rochesterdave's thoughts on this.... I’m glad someone is picking up on my subtle inferences 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Interesting 18Z run of the GFS. Tries to keep it almost all snow from CNY and eastward. Looks like it hits a wall as the cold air sinks in from the NE. Of course, it gets shredded, but like I talked about this morning, this is one of our only options if we want a White Christmas. I could also see that first "surprise" system that we are now seeing show up for Thursday night being the "stronger" of the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now