TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Agreed, that's why I haven't been posting that much because the writings on the wall already this yr. Like you mentioned, it gets worse and worse with every passing yr, except for the one or two anomalous yrs in there that stand out that are cold and snowy but there becoming few and far between as well so. Just sold my house and I haven't got a clue where I'm going yet, but I will be going way up in elevation, that's one thing I'm certain about right now but that too can change! Perhaps Vermont or New Hampshire or even the central portion of Maine so we'll see! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk There you are! I was honestly wondering if you were still alive. Head to the Keewenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan. You'll be on the good side of the increasing amount of disgusting cutters, still have good latitude, AND have elevation (stay away from Houghton for that)....and have almost constant snowpack for 5 to 6 months... I would move there in a heartbeat if the wife agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 What a dud of a SWFE event right? I mean come on already, are the Winters of old gone? I mean It snowed for an hour, then it went over to IP then to plain rain, and it changed over quickly. I didn't believe any of the models that were spitting out more than 1/2" of slush and thats exactly what fell, a slushy 1" if that! I guess we're experiencing what Winters will be like if we keep screwing with the Atmosphere like we do, but who really knows! I'll be back when a big one is on its way or a decent LE event but I don't even see that right now. Last week it looked pretty good for the week of Christmas, but that shit the bed as well, lol!!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Can we shift those anomalies to the Northeast? We're getting screwed. Again.Definitely time for you to just move Bri because you just like warm weather way too much, lol!!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Landed today in this…easily the scariest landing I’ve experienced. Surprised we didn’t go around. also….our banter thread is now being hacked to pieces by the mod We have a Mod now? Who?Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Gfs thruway norh 3 to 5. How did this work? LmaoSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I wouldn't call 4 to 6 inches "gang busters." But...you've had like an inch of snow this year, so I'll let it slide...as it's understandable...Yeah, and I wouldn't call what we experienced, a furnace, but definitely warm for mid-December, but I've seen it much warmer than that, so it's all relative, I suppose.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We have a Mod now? Who? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk We don't...but a couple individuals who love to chatter and antagonize (from other subforums and Off-Topic) decided they didn't like our non-weather-related discussion. One of them, a moderator, decided to take it upon oneself to control what is discussed...and started deleting posts and giving warnings. I believe Luke got one? Not sure who else. 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, and I wouldn't call what we experienced, a furnace, but definitely warm for mid-December, but I've seen it much warmer than that, so it's all relative, I suppose. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk No, the furnace came two days earlier when we hit 67 degrees. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Models look to be increasing our chances a bit of perhaps some lake effect snows on Thursday. It could give us an outside chance of a white Christmas eve and Christmas morning. Speaking of Christmas morning, the GFS and Canadian are working on it... (I will be in PA starting Friday, so your chances are already increased for something in NY.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Models look to be increasing our chances a bit of perhaps some lake effect snows on Thursday. It could give us an outside chance of a white Christmas eve and Christmas morning. Speaking of Christmas morning, the GFS and Canadian are working on it... (I will be in PA starting Friday, so your chances are already increased for something in NY.) It's coming 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's coming Yeah and that would be bone dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: One of them, a moderator, decided to take it upon oneself to control what is discussed...and started deleting posts and giving warnings. No, the furnace came two days earlier when we hit 67 degrees. lol Only deleted posts she didn't like. Dry and cold here this morning, 21. Seems to happen this way all the time... Cold are is nice, but kinda wasted with no precip. Hoping for a Christmas miracle, even if it's only a front-end hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 this morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I really hope Buf is right but I don’t see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Well at least for one run the GFS was south and weaker for Christmas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I really hope Buf is right but I don’t see it. Yeah that frame is a cutter look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Models look to be increasing our chances a bit of perhaps some lake effect snows on Thursday. It could give us an outside chance of a white Christmas eve and Christmas morning. Speaking of Christmas morning, the GFS and Canadian are working on it... (I will be in PA starting Friday, so your chances are already increased for something in NY.) This may seem hard to believe but in the recent past (3 or 4 years ago, maybe 5 now, before the Jonah settled here ) we had an Xmas eve no. Onondaga / so. Oswego cty LES special that gave us 5 or 6" that was very underpredicted. So, hope does exist around the lakes even when synoptic looks like a loser. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Definitely time for you to just move Bri because you just like warm weather way too much, lol!! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Apparently, I can just stay here and wait for the Global Warming to Sizzle things up. I mean, that 1C change will really make a difference in the rest of my lifespan. Cold this a.m. most unsatisfactory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This may seem hard to believe but in the recent past (3 or 4 years ago, maybe 5 now, before the Jonah settled here ) we had an Xmas eve no. Onondaga / so. Oswego cty LES special that gave us 5 or 6" that was very underpredicted. So, hope does exist around the lakes even when synoptic looks like a loser. Did Bville make it into that band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Pretty much all the models look like another boring waste of a winter week coming up. I suppose for the Lake Ontario crew we can hope the Rgem is sniffing out some LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 This is the only event I can find the last decade or so that started Christmas eve..It dumped 65" in Redfield, 44" in Perrysburg.. The 6th storm of the 2017-2018 season was a classic long-duration significant lake effect snow event off of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. An initial synoptic low pressure system tracked across the region on Christmas Eve bringing a general 3 to 6 inches of snow. Behind this leading storm system, a broad upper-level trough extended from the northern high plains across the Great Lakes and New England, bringing a 3 day supply of cold air advection, synoptic moisture and lift in the broad cyclonic flow. Lake effect snow developed immediately on the heels of the departing synoptic system early Christmas morning and continued continuously for about 72 hours, before diminishing late in the day on Wednesday the 27th as ridging aloft finally built across the lower Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that frame is a cutter look. Tough winter this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 The 12Z GFS is probably the best option we could hope for if we want a "White" Christmas. Front end snow with a change to rain showers. We already know if it's a strong system, it will cut...just keep it flat and move from West to EAST (none of this NE movement crap)....give us our 1 to 3 inches of slush...and fizzle away as it gets shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the only event I can find the last decade or so that started Christmas eve..It dumped 65" in Redfield, 44" in Perrysburg.. The 6th storm of the 2017-2018 season was a classic long-duration significant lake effect snow event off of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. An initial synoptic low pressure system tracked across the region on Christmas Eve bringing a general 3 to 6 inches of snow. Behind this leading storm system, a broad upper-level trough extended from the northern high plains across the Great Lakes and New England, bringing a 3 day supply of cold air advection, synoptic moisture and lift in the broad cyclonic flow. Lake effect snow developed immediately on the heels of the departing synoptic system early Christmas morning and continued continuously for about 72 hours, before diminishing late in the day on Wednesday the 27th as ridging aloft finally built across the lower Great Lakes Last year started Christmas Eve. Had 30” from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last year started Christmas Eve. Had 30” from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day. Yes...we all know you had an amazingly white Christmas eve/Christmas last year. I would love to read @rochesterdave's thoughts on this.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Hypothetical would you take 1 50"+ LES/Synoptic event or a winter with consistent 1-3" snowfalls every couple days and normal temps? You know my answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hypothetical would you take 1 50"+ LES/Synoptic event or a winter with consistent 1-3" snowfalls every couple days and normal temps? You know my answer. Yes to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes to both. If you have to choose 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Here is the event, Pulaski did decent with 13" https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: If you have to choose 1. Exactly. Yes. Lol In all seriousness, my answer is obvious for me. Consistent snowfalls with deepening snowpack is my kind of winter. I love big snowfalls, but if they melt a few days later that is depressing to me. So, really, Syracuse in a "NORMAL" winter would be great...as it's nickel and dime city here. But the awful winter patterns have allowed maybe an inch that melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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