Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Lol, by 2032 WNY will have NC weather. Maybe this is a good thing, won't have to move south when we retire.

I suppose you can all make the short drive to what will be the Orlando of Upstate and go swimming in Syrmax's pool in January.

[BuffaloWeather]

12 runs were putrid even gefs long range keep cold in northwest. The cold air has been in northwest for last 4-5 years. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Bills game has been great today.  Chilly… No Wind… Flurries all morning…

[rochesterdave]

Literally 4 cutters on the GFS. 4! Best December ever. 

[TugHillMatt]

If you don't feel like stabbing a pencil in your eye, go read BGM's latest forecast discussion. You'll feel the urge afterwards.

[Thinksnow18]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Forgot to add the canadian ENS is on board too

With the GEFS not on board you can see why I have trepidation 

[BuffaloWeather]

23 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

With the GEFS not on board you can see why I have trepidation 

They just went off board, they were on board for the last week hopefully one fluke.

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They just went off board, they were on board for the last week hopefully one fluke.

And that’s the funny part is last weeks the GEFS showed cold air and I came at you stating as much while the EPS said warm, now they switch? This is a truly depressing winter. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Normal temps in 8-14 days feature highs in low 30s

[rochesterdave]

Thanks for posting the long range and the indices. We can dream. But honestly, I don’t trust them one little bit. A pattern like this is very difficult to budge. On the upside, once it budges (if it does) we could be in for some fun. 
This just smacks of the horrendous winters Rochester suffered through in the early 80’s. I do recall Buffalo doing better with the LES during the brief Arctic outbreaks . 
We need some kind of communal Prozac up on this board. 

[sferic]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

If you don't feel like stabbing a pencil in your eye, go read BGM's latest forecast discussion. You'll feel the urge afterwards.

Yeah, 4/30 for bgm and  7/30 ensemble members for 2 inches next wknd

[cleetussnow]

The GFS says HO no! hold the Ho Ho Ho

[Thinksnow18]

I’m pretty sure the GFS is punking us

[wolfie09]

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight, light northerly breeze, some snow on the ground and starting to clear out.. Already low teens in tombo land, single digits in the higher elevations, just hit upper teens here.. Solidifying our 1"-2" snowpack lol

[tombo82685]

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight, light northerly breeze, some snow on the ground and starting to clear out.. Already low teens in tombo land, single digits in the higher elevations, just hit upper teens here.. Solidifying our 1"-2" snowpack lol

yea, 14.1 here. Wild the spread in temps over lewis and jefferson co with radational cooling aspects

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m pretty sure the GFS is punking us

The GEFS are back to what they were before

[Thinksnow18]

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GEFS are back to what they were before

Momentary blip?

[rochesterdave]

But isn’t our problem with the SE ridge? Here also on the EPS. 

[rochesterdave]

Europe is anonymous too. I would of figured the opposite. 

[rochesterdave]

Found this old La Niña map and boy does it fit!

[rochesterdave]

That HP just spinning in the gulf of Alaska. Pretty neat how these patterns are recognizable. Not neat what they do to us

[rochesterdave]

Rochester had an epic snowstorm (actually 2 in 3 days) that dumped 40” in March of 99. Also a La Niña winter. 

[tombo82685]

Down to 7. Just got back from a long walk, just beautiful out with the mooning reflecting off the snow pack. Almost like day time out. Hoar frost everywhere in the trees and shrubs 

[BuffaloWeather]

43 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

But isn’t our problem with the SE ridge? Here also on the EPS. 

Theres nothing wrong with that pattern TBH. That is a good synoptic setup for us, slightly cutterish but not terrible. Average temps this time of year are cold.

[WNash]

12 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah it’s over brother. The days of cold stretches with a brief warmup are long gone. Now it’s stretches of warmth with a transient cold shot from time to time. It’s time to face facts. 

Sounds like the sensible weather in Tennessee in the 1990s and early 2000s. I moved here ecstatic that I was going to leave behind weeks of 43/31 weather, interspersed with warm-ups into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winters where precip was 4x as likely to be rain as snow. The standard for an A or A- winter would be at least one instance of accumulating snow (1” or more) falling into previously accumulated snow (snowpack at least 1”).

I’m going to put out a theory that our rate of winter warming is us losing about 0.5 degrees of latitude every three winters. So in 20 years, Buffalo went from the epic Christmas week storm that buried the whole city (https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B) to winters where we get cutter after cutter, and where the front end thump of an inch or so leads to no lake response. We might as well live in the mid-south. At least they get to cheer for the occasional cut-off low bringing a jackpot every few years. And by 2040 we should be seeing the winters that Jackson, Mississippi had circa 2000. Who wants to trade lake effect chases for tornado chases? Will we be able to complain about weeks of 70 degrees and sunshine in January and and February?

 

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, WNash said:

Sounds like the sensible weather in Tennessee in the 1990s and early 2000s. I moved here ecstatic that I was going to leave behind weeks of 43/31 weather, interspersed with warm-ups into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winters where precip was 4x as likely to be rain as snow. The standard for an A or A- winter would be at least one instance of accumulating snow (1” or more) falling into previously accumulated snow (snowpack at least 1”).

I’m going to put out a theory that our rate of winter warming is us losing about 0.5 degrees of latitude every three winters. So in 20 years, Buffalo went from the epic Christmas week storm that buried the whole city (https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B) to winters where we get cutter after cutter, and where the front end thump of an inch or so leads to no lake response. We might as well live in the mid-south. At least they get to cheer for the occasional cut-off low bringing a jackpot every few years. And by 2040 we should be seeing the winters that Jackson, Mississippi had circa 2000. Who wants to trade lake effect chases for tornado chases? Will we be able to complain about weeks of 70 degrees and sunshine in January and and February?

 

not so fast my friend. Dec 2001 was not a good winter overall.

Dec 2001 was a very warm winter and ranks as the 10th warmest december overall. That entire autumn was extremely warm. That winter was a 1 storm winter, the rest of it was very warm. I remember vividly the 45" snow depth melting within a week or two across Cheektowaga. I was pretty much ground zero for that storm.

1    42.1    2015    
2    37.6    1923    
3    37.5    1889    
4    37.5    1982    
5    37.2    2006    
6    36.8    1881    
7    36.7    1877    
8    36.6    1891    
9    36.3    2012    
10   35.9    2001  

If you click on the link here you go.

Lake Effect Storm
December 24, 2001- Jan 1, 2002

After a record warm and nearly snowless November and December, 
western and central New York underwent one of the most significant 
and abrupt changes in the weather that has ever been recorded in 
this area. Almost no snow had been recorded in the region (1.6 
inches at Buffalo) up until the days before Christmas, leaving 
everyone wondering if we would have a white Christmas at all.
By about December 22nd, forecasters began to see signs of a 
significant change in the large scale weather pattern across North 
America. Advanced computer models were showing a blocking pattern 
developing over Greenland at upper levels of the atmosphere, forcing 
an upper level, closed low to develop and strengthen over the Upper 
Great Lakes. Forecasters on the eastern Great Lakes are familiar 
with this synoptic pattern, because it is conducive to the heaviest 
lake effect snows in western and central New York.
The low was forecast to trap enough cold air from northern Canada to 
produce heavy lake snows. Even more alarming was the forecast that 
the upper low would move little, if any during the next week. This 
would produce more serious implications for the eastern lakes.
1. The pattern would mean that an extended period of lake effect 
snow was likely, possible for an entire week. 
2. The wind direction would remain the same for a long time, which 
would result in a band staying over one particular region for days 
at a time.

[BuffaloWeather]

Buffalo is actually ahead of where they were back in 2001.

I've been saying this all along only takes 1 storm. But in order for that 1 storm to happen we need arctic air. I've been looking for it all month, its stuck in the northwest.

[BuffaloWeather]

The general theme of that winter was warm. It looks like March was the best month.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary0102

NOVEMBER
November was a remarkably mild and dry month across all of western and central New York. There was no snow in Buffalo for the first time ever..

DECEMBER
December continued the trend from October and November with plenty of mild dry weather right on through the 23^rd.

JANUARY
The month began with the cleanup from the huge holiday week storm in the areas east of both lakes...but soon reverted to the unusually mild and dry pattern so prevalent in November and most of December.

FEBRUARY
The month began with the tail end of the major synoptic ice and windstorm, and then was closely followed by a combined synoptic and lake effect system that dropped the heaviest snow of the season for much of the Rochester area and Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region with 4 to 8 inches. The month then reverted to the all too familiar mild and dry pattern so prevalent this winter.

MARCH
March was the most active winter month across western and central New York this season, as winter and spring battled it out with some fierce winds and a variety of storms.

[BuffaloWeather]

Maybe we just think our winters are better than they are. It's rare to get winters like 2013-2015 were. The late 70s were also an anomaly.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Honestly I’m tired of it. The actual season I love the most is being ripped to shreds more and more each year. The variability in our weather is what made this area so complete. It’s getting a bit depressing to know we’re not going back to the days we all loved and most likely why we started to love weather.

Agreed, that's why I haven't been posting that much because the writings on the wall already this yr. Like you mentioned, it gets worse and worse with every passing yr, except for the one or two anomalous yrs in there that stand out that are cold and snowy but there becoming few and far between as well so.

Just sold my house and I haven't got a clue where I'm going yet, but I will be going way up in elevation, that's one thing I'm certain about right now but that too can change! Perhaps Vermont or New Hampshire or even the central portion of Maine so we'll see!

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