Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That's only an 8 year average which includes 3 years with an average of 75" and 5 years at 170" ish.. Those 3 terrible years are the worst I can find..The pulaski COOP has been around since 1947 but only 45% reporting, missing ton of data.. Pulaski averages more than Oswego which averages 141" per year and Bennet's bridge 9 miles east (elevation 600') averages 183"..NWS map has pulaski to altmar 160"-180"..(less west, more east)..

Wow so far more than Lowville. Didn’t realize you averaged that much. That’s an absolutely awesome average. To average 160-180” here you would have to move to the hilltops of Boston/Colden/Holland. I’m excited to average over 100” now at around 120” compared to about 80” in Amherst. Snow retention will still be pretty lousy at my place though with only 720 feet of elevation. Once you get up into the Boston hills the retention is so much better with temps usually a few degrees cooler just due to elevation gain and then there’s obviously no downsloping like we see really bad from West Seneca to Dunkirk/Fredonia to Westfield anytime there’s a S/SE wind during winter. 

[tombo82685]

30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That's only an 8 year average which includes 3 years with an average of 75" and 5 years at 170" ish.. Those 3 terrible years are the worst I can find..The pulaski COOP has been around since 1947 but only 45% reporting, missing ton of data.. Pulaski averages more than Oswego which averages 141" per year and Bennet's bridge 9 miles east (elevation 600-700') averages 183"..NWS map has pulaski to altmar 160"-180"..(less west, more east)..

I figured you averaged a bit more than Lowville. Basically prime moisture feed off Ontario and don't have to worry about being shadowed by the tuggies.  Lowville probably does better with rention I would imagine with avg highs in the 20s for jan and feb

[tombo82685]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where did you live before? I don't recognize your username with 12k+ posts.

I live in Southeast PA, just outside Philly. Still down here right now, waiting for settlement date for the house in Lowville, which should be soon. Not sure how long you have been around on here for, but back in the 2009-2012 I was known for the euro model information as I was one of the only few who had the maps and would do euro PBP in philly forum. Became a moderator on here, then had a disagreement on here with admin and formed my own philly forum which I still run currently. 

[rochesterdave]

43 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I live in Southeast PA, just outside Philly. Still down here right now, waiting for settlement date for the house in Lowville, which should be soon. Not sure how long you have been around on here for, but back in the 2009-2012 I was known for the euro model information as I was one of the only few who had the maps and would do euro PBP in philly forum. Became a moderator on here, then had a disagreement on here with admin and formed my own philly forum which I still run currently. 

The old euro outputs were like gold. People be begging for that. My impression (probably wrong) is that Euro was actually better back then. Maybe it was all relative. Better than AVN. Lol

[tombo82685]

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The old euro outputs were like gold. People be begging for that. My impression (probably wrong) is that Euro was actually better back then. Maybe it was all relative. Better than AVN. Lol

Those old euro maps were dreadful but got the job done. Back then I used stormvista, while data is fast, their model output for precip amounts and what not is pretty terrible. So pixelated compared to the other sources these days  I think the euro has had one to many upgrades which has hurt it a bit. It’s still the best in the world along with the epa statistically 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

@Thinksnow18  I added some new graphics!  Little Johnny Cash for tonight's 10pm temperature check in at the always balmy Buffalo Niagara International Airport!  Be careful around that Ring of Fire!    

[BuffaloWeather]

50 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

@Thinksnow18  I added some new graphics!  Little Johnny Cash for tonight's 10pm temperature check in at the always balmy Buffalo Niagara International Airport!  Be careful around that Ring of Fire!    

How do you explain Watertown being warmer than KBUF so far this month, and Syracuse tying Buffalo in departure for October? SYR doesn't have a warm lake to its west. If BUF is off so are those 2 locations. This is why this doesn't have much merit to me anymore.

[BuffaloWeather]

GEFS has the cold from Nov 13 until end of run.

[TugHillMatt]

9 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Yep been 15 years years since I started posting on the WIVB blog lol. Started on the weather forums back at Eastern Wx in Jan of 07. Man were all getting old haha. 
 

There was way too much drama on a dang weather blog back then but I guess none of us had anything better to do and there wasn’t really social media like there is today where all weather weenies can post and talk about whatever they want whenever they want freely without any consequence or ridicule. 
 

I love this forum as it’s the perfect mix of realism, optimism, and pessimism (TugHillMatt below average snow, above average temps at SYR). No one takes anything to serious but it’s not a total joke. Great place to read learn and converse about weather, sports, and other random topics. 

I think that means I'm loved? 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How do you explain Watertown being warmer than KBUF so far this month, and Syracuse tying Buffalo in departure for October? SYR doesn't have a warm lake to its west. If BUF is off so are those 2 locations. This is why this doesn't have much merit to me anymore.

Its hard to say that these 20 surrounding PWS sites are not accurate, when they are so consistent with each other.  I have no idea what is even causing it, just curious what is making the KBUF temp standout like a sore thumb on so many nights.  Temp is in line during the day so has no impact on overall high temp or low temp as the station usually crashes from 5-7am to bottom out.  This blip probably has little to no impact on the overall monthly temp average.  Still the overnight often features several hour periods where KBUF is much warmer than every other station and I just can't figure out why.  

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Its hard to say that these 20 surrounding PWS sites are not accurate, when they are so consistent with each other.  I have no idea what is even causing it, just curious what is making the KBUF temp standout like a sore thumb on so many nights.  Temp is in line during the day so has no impact on overall high temp or low temp as the station usually crashes from 5-7am to bottom out.  This blip probably has little to no impact on the overall monthly temp average.  Still the overnight often features several hour periods where KBUF is much warmer than every other station and I just can't figure out why.  

If I were to guess its lazy people at KBUF not updating it. You should do ROC temp and see why its so much colder than everywhere else in NY at the end of each month, not just the daily.

[Rjay]

8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I live in Southeast PA, just outside Philly. Still down here right now, waiting for settlement date for the house in Lowville, which should be soon. Not sure how long you have been around on here for, but back in the 2009-2012 I was known for the euro model information as I was one of the only few who had the maps and would do euro PBP in philly forum. Became a moderator on here, then had a disagreement on here with admin and formed my own philly forum which I still run currently. 

Just finished reading the Boxing Day threads. I read them annually lol.  It's almost like a nice bedtime story.  

[Thinksnow18]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS has the cold from Nov 13 until end of run.

The GFS 0z has 2 snow events and a LES event beginning this upcoming weekend. Looks very active 

[Thinksnow18]

6 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Its hard to say that these 20 surrounding PWS sites are not accurate, when they are so consistent with each other.  I have no idea what is even causing it, just curious what is making the KBUF temp standout like a sore thumb on so many nights.  Temp is in line during the day so has no impact on overall high temp or low temp as the station usually crashes from 5-7am to bottom out.  This blip probably has little to no impact on the overall monthly temp average.  Still the overnight often features several hour periods where KBUF is much warmer than every other station and I just can't figure out why.  

I agree with this. Plus once again it was full sun at KBUF yesterday and no wind at all. Let’s also take into effect KBUF is about 10 miles inland from the lake. So the only way the temp gauge would be influenced by the lake is a SW wind pushing 52 degree air towards it…and all other sites would have a similar temperature range. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree with this. Plus once again it was full sun at KBUF yesterday and no wind at all. Let’s also take into effect KBUF is about 10 miles inland from the lake. So the only way the temp gauge would be influenced by the lake is a SW wind pushing 52 degree air towards it…and all other sites would have a similar temperature range. 

I would send KBUF a screenshot of the highest departure you can find the next few weeks current time, maybe they will go check it out again or replace a broken part. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The GFS 0z has 2 snow events and a LES event beginning this upcoming weekend. Looks very active 

Yeah still a little out there but definitely some chances in 2nd half of the month. GFS always shows cold late in run, but it has support from EPS too. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Some real cold dropped at end of GFS for November standards. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Another winter outlook out

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56117-winter-2021-2022-outlook/?tab=comments#comment-6171398

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Weak La Nina: 

 

Moderate La Nina: 

Strong La Nina: 

[BuffaloWeather]

Primary Polar Analogs: 1964-1965, 2020-2021, 2000-2001, 2010-2011, 2017-2018, 2005-2006, 1955-1956, 1995-1996, 1970-1971, 1974-1975, 1954-1955

[BuffaloWeather]

I feel confident in saying everyone here has an above average snowfall for November. Buffalo 30 year average is between 7-8" for November. You can bookmark this and tell me how wrong I was Dec 1st. 

[TugHillMatt]

18 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too. 

Wow, what a glorious winter that was for Syracuse. Looks like there was consistent snowpack and snowfall throughout the winter. There were a couple of the typical, annoying thaws, but they look to have been temporary and snowpack remained afterwards. Looking through data, I can really tell when there was lake effect fluff, as the pack would go down big time despite cold temperatures. Then, I can tell when there was moisture-laden synoptic snow, because the pack would go down a few inches despite temps being near 50 degrees (with perhaps low dewpoints as well).

[wolfie09]

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I feel confident in saying everyone here has an above average snowfall for November. Buffalo 30 year average is between 7-8" for November. You can bookmark this and tell me how wrong I was Dec 1st. 

An above average November would be awesome as the early snows are becoming more rare.  Couple interesting data tidbits for Buffalo.

1940-1987 (47 year period) had an average November snowfall of 12.55" and only saw two seasons (46/47 and 54/55) that had Novembers with less than 1.0" of snowfall.

1987-2021 (34 year period) had an average November snowfall of 7.14" and saw 14 seasons with November snowfall less than 1.0" (87/88, 88/89, 90/91, 94/95, 98/99, 99/00, 01/02, 04/05, 09/10, 11/12, 15/16, 16/17, 17/18, 20/21).

Just an incredible drop off in early season snowfall in Buffalo over the past 35-40 years...

[TugHillMatt]

15 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

That's only an 8 year average which includes 3 years with an average of 75" and 5 years at 170" ish.. Those 3 terrible years are the worst I can find..The pulaski COOP has been around since 1947 but only 45% reporting, missing ton of data.. Pulaski averages more than Oswego which averages 141" per year and Bennet's bridge 9 miles east (elevation 600-700') averages 183"..NWS map has pulaski to altmar 160"-180"..(less west, more east)..

@Syrmax, during your commutes to Oswego from Northern Onondaga county, did you notice much difference in snowfall/snowpack between Oswego and our area? I know the strip between, from Fulton to Volney, jackpots. However, I have a couple of colleagues who live in Oswego and commute to Bville...and they say that we often have more snow than they do up there. The only times this isn't the case are when Oswego gets hammered by those close-to-the-lake tea kettle snows.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some real cold dropped at end of GFS for November standards. 

This looks great for a start to winter. I just hope we don't use it all up by Mid December and go warm the second half of the month into the Christmas holidays. That December 15th to 24th period has been troublesome as of late.

[wolfie09]

The average snow here in  November (past 8 years) is 12"..Now 3 of those years were pretty good good, 2014-2015-25", 2016-2017-24" and 2018-2019-27"..Those 3 seasons finished with an average of 164"..The 3 bad years in that span (2015-2016 and the past 2 years) have a combined 6.5" and had an average of 75"..Small sample size I know but good Novembers tend to lead to good Winters, at least stat wise lol 

[lakeeffectkid383]

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The average snow here in  November (past 8 years) is 12"..Now 3 of those years were pretty good good, 2014-2015-25", 2016-2017-24" and 2018-2019-27"..Those 3 seasons finished with an average of 164"..The 3 bad years in that span (2015-2016 and the past 2 years) have a combined 6.5" and had an average of 75"..Small sample size I know but good Novembers tend to lead to good Winters, at least stat wise lol 

Nice stat. Let’s get an above average Nov and keep it rocking all the way through March. 

[wolfie09]

13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

@Syrmax, during your commutes to Oswego from Northern Onondaga county, did you notice much difference in snowfall/snowpack between Oswego and our area? I know the strip between, from Fulton to Volney, jackpots. However, I have a couple of colleagues who live in Oswego and commute to Bville...and they say that we often have more snow than they do up there. The only times this isn't the case are when Oswego gets hammered by those close-to-the-lake tea kettle snows.

It's kind of hard to compare when Oswego has had it's worst 2 year span in history.. According to the Oswego E spotter last year was 59" and the previous year 52".. Syracuse was much closer to average then Oswego was..