BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 It's the time of year to get @rochesterdave, @CNY-LES FREAK, and @ayuud11posting again! After one of the warmest Octobers in recent memory, things look to change quite quickly this week. Temps will be well below average almost all work week as a trough delivers the first cool air of the season. There is a chance of snow from Tues night into Friday. There should be some action off the lakes all week long. We likely see our first snowflakes across lower elevations and first accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain. NWS mentions thunder possible A longwave trough will mature over the eastern half of Canada Monday night through most of the week, with the base of the trough extending down through the Great Lakes and New England. At the surface, low pressure will remain parked over northern Quebec Monday night through Tuesday before moving off into the North Atlantic Wednesday, maintaining moist cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes. A series of shortwaves and surface troughs will cross the eastern Great Lakes, with each one enhancing synoptic scale moisture, ascent, and convergence. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes. Following this week it looks like we go back above average into mid month as a Pacific dominant flow comes back once again. The revised temp map for November shows an above average month. As we look further ahead we look to have a weak/moderate La Nina which should feature an earlier than normal start to winter and a quicker end. The EPS weeklies If I had a guess we have a cold first week, warm week 2 into week 3 and we eventually start to cool back down towards end of November into December. Since we haven't had 3 straight below normal years in a row I'll go slightly above normal snowfall and slightly above average temps for this upcoming winter. Look forward to this forum getting more active and for us to finally have a real Northeast Winter! So that @TugHillMattdoesn't move away on us. May the wind direction forever be in your favor. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 Average high/low Nov 1st is 53/38 and on Nov 30th its 41/29. So we don't want too much cold until the 2nd half of November to really utilize the lake temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 We've had some pretty big events in November. Nov. 2019 had a large synoptic storm on Nov 10-12th with over a foot over most of WNY. Nov 14-16 2018 also had a pretty big event across most of WNY/Upstate with 6-15" across the area. Nov 2020 was quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 Some recent LES events for NOV last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 Can't forget these 2. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can't forget these 2. Damm I missed that 2014 event by literally 5 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Not too often I don't see at least snowflakes in October, but none this year. Hopefully at least flakes this week. Then it can go back to warm for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 The new normal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 I saw this on another sub-forum, think this is in Alaska. 250" in 2 days. Detailed Forecast Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I saw this on another sub-forum, think this is in Alaska. 250" in 2 days. Detailed Forecast Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible I feel the wind may knock down ratios a bit... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Well looking at the information I have provided for me through the 27th of October, daytime highs were +3 while lows were+8, average+5.5..The last 4 days of the month probably lowers that some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Lake effect snow may accumulate across higher terrain including the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance for accumulating snow is on Tuesday night when there`s a potential for 3 to 5 inches of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 I guess you gotta start somewhere lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 OCT TEMPS BUF finished at 59.4 (3rd warmest Oct of all time) BUF: +7.7 ROC: +5.4 WAT: +7.0 SYR: +7.7 BING: +6.1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Even some of the lower elevation need to watch this lol If heavier precipitation rates can bring down some cooler air to the BL.. Either way it would be first flakes on the year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Starting to see some graupel here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I saw this on another sub-forum, think this is in Alaska. 250" in 2 days. Detailed Forecast Today Snow. The snow will be f-ing heavy all times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow will be super f-ing heavy all times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow will be f-ing heavy all times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible Fixed the detailed forecast...lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, vortmax said: Fixed the detailed forecast...lol The most amazing part of that Alaska forecast is that there isnt a watch, warnings, advisory, or even a nowcast. 250" in a few days is apparently par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 So my question is: At what point do we change the title of this topic to "Upstate/Eastern New York - Into Endless November" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Here's something to hold you guys over because the pattern on the GFS sucks up until this point lol Dominated by HP, hopefully we get that pattern over with the first two weeks lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here's something to hold you guys over because the pattern on the GFS sucks up until this point lol Dominated by HP, hopefully we get that pattern over with the first two weeks lol I wonder if early season lows over hudson bay will form due to the temperature differential more frequently with global warming 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Here's something to hold you guys over because the pattern on the GFS sucks up until this point lol Dominated by HP, hopefully we get that pattern over with the first two weeks lol Lock it in. On the 7th anniversary of snovember. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 I want to see lots of this year. @lakeeffectkid383 moved south so you know all the big events this year are going north. Congrats @ayuud11 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: The most amazing part of that Alaska forecast is that there isnt a watch, warnings, advisory, or even a nowcast. 250" in a few days is apparently par for the course. Its fake snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lock it in. On the 7th anniversary of snovember. I will chase from downstate anything like that. If there is a biggie LE event I have a biggie truck especially for snow! PS I moved my winter camp to VT instead of Tug Hill/Old Forge area for snowmobiling so I will be more watchful of that forum. I do plan a trip or 2 to the Daks for some winter camping so I'll keep an eye on you guys up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I will chase from downstate anything like that. If there is a biggie LE event I have a biggie truck especially for snow! PS I moved my winter camp to VT instead of Tug Hill/Old Forge area for snowmobiling so I will be more watchful of that forum. I do plan a trip or 2 to the Daks for some winter camping so I'll keep an eye on you guys up there. Where abouts do you camp in the ADK? I want to do one winter hike this year thinking Sawteeth mountain to bring me to #39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 Will see how much this changes by end of month, it also showed Nov. being below 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 6 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to see some graupel here. There's something about the first lake effect band that gets me excited. The water I swim in all summer is the swam water that generates snow that falls on my driveway. Pretty cool to think about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Where abouts do you camp in the ADK? I want to do one winter hike this year thinking Sawteeth mountain to bring me to #39. I have av RV which i used to set up in Old Forge for the winter as a snowmobile base camp. I actually winter camp by snowmobile and that would be in moose river plains. I might go back and try an overnight on Indian lake but its a windy ass lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I want to see lots of this year. @lakeeffectkid383 moved south so you know all the big events this year are going north. Congrats @ayuud11 Southern Oswego/Northern Onondaga screw zone? Gonna be a long winter... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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