TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Hwrf model Yeah, I saw that...even gets the Cuse in the action. You guys would be rocking up there. It would definitely start a nice base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Are we actually trending the right direction for first time this winter? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Lol..The Rgem bailed on us and jumped north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Slightly north not much in difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 HiRez GFS looks like it came south. Nice run for thruway north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The very slight shifts make a huge difference when you're right on that tight gradient...like stupidcuse always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gotta remember some of this is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Icon better than last 2 runs but still not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 If you notice on icon from hour 33 to hour 39 its below freezing. But shows rain. So a significant period of sleet freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I sense there could be a narrow zone of some long-duration sleet in there...roughly the Thruway corridor just south of Batavia to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Great north flow enhancement signal. Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The ARW2 is the farthest south model so far though. Perhaps too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gfs is a bit south from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 It looks great and looks to get Onondaga county with a good batch of snow...but it goes from this... to this.... Big fricken hole...over....you guessed it. "You can't make this up..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 In SE Monroe County, a hairy spot with such a tight gradient between 8" and 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Yeah happy New year guys.. Looks like GFS and Canadian don't have much of a storm for the 6th/7th, replaced with an extended period of lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah happy New year guys.. Looks like GFS and Canadian don't have much of a storm for the 6th/7th, replaced with an extended period of lake effect.. I’d take that. It appears we’re actually heading into a period of actual winter. Might only be a few weeks so I’m going to soak it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Holy polar vortex on gfs. Lol 2 of them. Lakes would be projectile vomiting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 @BuffaloWeatherfeel like we need a new thread “Living on a Prayer - January 2022”, but then again “into winter” is still fitting as we have yet to enter winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year, all! New Euro run looks better in spreading the wealth for much of Upstate. I'm on my way back tomorrow, so we shall see if it's enough to contain "the force" as he returns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Dave can you put up entire run when finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 NWS really not impressed with this. Their high end amounts are pretty much the floor of the models. P+C is especially dreary. And I think they’re on to something. Very marginal set-up and it’s not a dynamic system so it probably lacks much in the way of surprises. Still, it’s always fun to see a couple nice model runs. Throw down expectations tomorrow but I think Roc gets 1-3”. Almost entirely off backside enhancement. I unfortunately don’t see Buf or SYR doing great with this one. Hope I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dave can you put up entire run when finished There’s to 180. Not sure the point. LOL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: There’s to 180. Not sure the point. LOL. We all approve this clown map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: @BuffaloWeatherfeel like we need a new thread “Living on a Prayer - January 2022”, but then again “into winter” is still fitting as we have yet to enter winter. New thread! Happy new year all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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