CNY_WX Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Now we know where all our snow went, downtown Truckee, CA. Oswego County used to look like this in the winter. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Got to be happy for them. They need that water. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS tracks south of Pittsburgh but not enough cold air being drawn into the system. It's a perfect track for Upstate if we had cold air. A low over Long Island and not enough cold air for snow in Rochester in January. If that doesn't scream "climate change" I don't know what does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS are further SE then the OP Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I think panel 10 is the most likely and 20 would be best outcome for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Euro Just going to post…damn Wolfie you’re quick!!! Still about 3-5”Niagara Frontier…I’m starting to think this is getting narrowed or locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 This time period needs to be watched for a more potent system. Currently a little too far west with the track, but too far out to take anything seriously right now. EPS and GEFS have it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 That's more like it.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's more like it.. However that track is perfect for LES off Erie for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Well verbatim it transfers so winds are actually W-WNW, not that it matters lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Most guidance has decent HP to the north, eventually it would hit that resistance, hopefully sooner rather than later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5" up here on the euro for Sunday then below zero monday AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gotta say it looks good on paper. Nice, gentle north wind. It’s all about if the 850 is cold enough. My $ is on a more NW track but at least it’s fun to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Decent enhancement signature. Kuchy just for fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Decent enhancement signature. Kuchy just for fun. Can you put up closer in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro drops the PV over us in 8-10 days. That would be too cold, lake Erie would freeze in like 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Can you put up closer in? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Hrrr coming in nice for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 You can tell joe bastardi configured the algorithm himself.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Most recent short-range models...looking exciting for you western NY guys. Kills me how close it is to getting Central NY involved. I have been thinking, and hoping, it will come in flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Tomboland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Look at enhanced precip on sw side of lake erie. Don't see that often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The difference between this system and our other waves this season is we actually have cold air pressing south, rather than warm air pushing north behind it. So I could see this taking a farther south track than models are showing (as opposed to the often-occurring north trend). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Tomboland... NWS g be believes in zero of these models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 TBH 2"-4" is hardly headline criteria for kbuf CWA, I think it's more of the up to two tenths of ice, which is probably why you don't see anymore advisories out right now.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Precipitation type will become an issue starting early Saturday night, perhaps even a bit sooner as shallow low level cold air seeps southwestward down the Saint Lawrence Valley and into the North country. This will bring a period of freezing rain to Jefferson and Lewis counties, with the potential for up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation, this will necessitate the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson and Lewis counties starting Saturday night. As colder air continues to seep in from the north, mixed precipitation including freezing rain will gradually work south through the area later Saturday night into early Sunday morning for most areas south of Lake Ontario, perhaps not entirely reaching the Southern Tier. The potential for some icing in these areas will continue to be highlighted in the HWO product, but may eventually need to add other portions of the area to the advisory as the event draws closer. Thermal profiles are cold enough Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures rapidly dropping down to near -10C, to support all snow. There may still be a period of mixed precipitation early Sunday closer to the Pennsylvania line, but for the most part Sunday looks to be a transition to all snow for everybody. Snowfall amounts are only expected to be in the 1-3 inch range although localized higher amounts are possible, especially over higher terrain and areas where some lake enhancement occurs. By late Sunday afternoon and certainly Sunday night...the cold air will be deep enough to support a response off the lakes. Limiting the lake snows though will be a general lack of synoptic moisture and a cap that will lower from about 7500 ft. Regardless...a few inches of lake snow can be expected southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will certainly be colder than recent nights...as the mercury will drop into the teens over the western counties and will tumble to the single digits across the North Country. Wind chill values will be in the single digits for most areas...but will range from 5 to 10 below for much of Jefferson and Lewis counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: TBH 2"-4" is hardly headline criteria for kbuf CWA, I think it's more of the up to two tenths of ice, which is probably why you don't see anymore advisories out right now.. Yeah that WWA is for the ice potential otherwise there would be nothing issued for just 2-4". Though that said, if it was 100% snow and no ice there probably would be more than 2-4" as some of the models are showing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Northern Oneida also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Central and Southern ADK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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