TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Rgem seems to be bringing in additional energy to create a snowy Sunday for much of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS went warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Of course it did. I can't believe how awful the models are. They waffle all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Maps won't load on icon for accumulated precip. But looks snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Decent ice with the cold air coming in, at least according to these maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 4:00 AM, wolfie09 said: Decent ice with the cold air coming in, at least according to these maps lol Expand I could see possibly a sleetstorm for the zone north of the Thruway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If I were to pick a bright spot, probably the only bright spot, out of the 0z it would be the WRF. Changes much earlier than the others. Keep in mind, I think this ultimately winds up very warm. But fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 This one is rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Icon was still really good dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 3:57 AM, TugHillMatt said: Of course it did. I can't believe how awful the models are. They waffle all over the place. Expand This is sort of like saying the regular NFL refs are sooooo much better than the replacement Refs during the strike a few years back. The reality is...not so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 4:12 AM, rochesterdave said: This one is rough Expand Jamestown says, "Come north, my friend..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 4:12 AM, tim123 said: Icon was still really good dave Expand Just eyeballing, it cut back on snow amounts by roughly 30-50% across WNY from the 18z run but at least it's something lol. 18z 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 4:20 AM, BGM Blizzard said: Just eyeballing, it cut back on snow amounts by roughly 30-50% across WNY from the 18z run but at least it's something lol. Expand 0.0 * 30/100 = ??? I trust The Science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Cmc goes south. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Sure did Tim! Maybe it’ll be close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It's like deja vu from last event lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 4:48 AM, wolfie09 said: It's like deja vu from last event lol Expand Gah...don't hit BUF and ROC and leave SYR out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z NBM 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Whats an NBM model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/30/2021 at 4:34 PM, BGM Blizzard said: Lol yeah... National Blend of Models. I had to Google to see what it was. I've seen the NWS discussions citing it quite a bit the past few years. Apparently it's a melting pot of all the various operational and ensembles but I'm not sure what the weighting system is. The latest version 4.0 from October 2020 now includes the Euro and EPS. https://luckgrib.com/models/nbm_conus/ Expand @BuffaloWeather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/30/2021 at 4:34 PM, BGM Blizzard said: Lol yeah... National Blend of Models. I had to Google to see what it was. I've seen the NWS discussions citing it quite a bit the past few years. Apparently it's a melting pot of all the various operational and ensembles but I'm not sure what the weighting system is. The latest version 4.0 from October 2020 now includes the Euro and EPS. https://luckgrib.com/models/nbm_conus/ Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro came in colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Man, you're fast. Looking like a 2 to 4 inch snowfall for Buffalo to Rochester crew and 1 to 2 inches of icy mix/snow for Jamestown to Syracuse to Herkimer. Hopefully it gets pushed farther south and flatter. As we know this season, these systems have not followed the direct paths the models predict. Tuesday was supposed to be a snowy day here along Interstate 80 in PA and it ended up hitting farther south between the turnpike and Mason Dixon line in Southern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 For kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Can you post this map for entire run when finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 6:47 AM, rochesterdave said: For kicks Expand Definitely some lake enhanced precip. To bad not more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 In a blend of the GFS, Euro and CMC the avg for KBUF would be 3-5” for later tomorrow night into Sunday. With no real warmup after that and (at least on the GFS BuffWeather) the threat of SW lake effect Wednesday night-Thursday it may look a bit more winter like around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 6:51 AM, tim123 said: Can you post this map for entire run when finished Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6z Euro 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z EPS for this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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