Syrmax Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Welp, the Canadian says, "You thought you were getting snow, eh? Think again, ya hosers!" Never trust the shifty Canadians. They seem nice and all, but then they pimp slap you when you least expect it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 UK not looking too good either outside of NNY and maybe some scraps invof LO south shore. GFS looking like an outlier all the way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 FWIW, ICON similar look as CMC on first wave and very supressed, weak, 2nd wave. GooFuS run looks like noise. We shall see. Plenty of time left for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 That stronger HP over Ontario is the key I believe. Flatter. But look out for that 48 hour NW shift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Yep. It's high pressure to the north vs. the SE Ridge. That makes this quite a tricky event as just subtle changes can lead to much different outcomes. I give up on any notion of a secondary "saving" us. Waves are moving so quickly that there just isn't time. We hope the Saturday system gets pressed to a flatter trajectory and we snow/mix or otherwise we rely on lake effect scraps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Fwiw... the Canadian Ensemble mean is alot more favorable than the Op run with more of a W to E axis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Thanks for sharing those Canadian Ensembles. That looks like the much more workable solutions in which I was hoping. You can see that the ones that cut are at a much sharper trajectory of 35 to 45 degrees and stronger with heavier snowfall, while the flatter solutions have about a 20 degree trajectory and are weaker. Going along with the theme of this season, I might actually go with the flatter, weaker look over the more potent cutters. With the subtle shifts occurring in the pattern (ex: Chicago getting snowfall this week), this very well may end up being our best Synoptic shot of the winter to date. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6z GFS takes away slight hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 6z GFS takes away slight hope There really is no hope. It seems to me that the GFS is just an unstable model, especially with fast flow setups....even at T+60. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Euro is locked in. 6z run unchanged from previous runs. Far NNY and possibly some of the Niagara area might get scraped but for the rest of us... Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 EPS also backing the Operational run pretty closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The Euro still gives me a half an inch. You know these dustings add up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 That 6Z model run of the GFS... Just awful. We would punt the first half of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: That 6Z model run of the GFS... Just awful. We would punt the first half of January. This winter looks bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Looks like the sharper 45 degree-angled trajectory is going to win out. Yeah, things could still change...but it's looking like we wait at least another week for any legit winter weather. Perhaps we see some lake effect to set a bit of a winter mood. Time to move onto the short-term models for our dusting to 1 inch lake effect snow showers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Thank god we have the Bills because that’s about the only good thing to look forward to with the weather pattern so darn crappy. We going to be a top 5 low snowfall winter at BUF? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 We lost Devin. Whose next? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Thank god we have the Bills because that’s about the only good thing to look forward to with the weather pattern so darn crappy. We going to be a top 5 low snowfall winter at BUF? I got tickets to first playoff game already. Can’t wait. I’ve never been to one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Thank god we have the Bills because that’s about the only good thing to look forward to with the weather pattern so darn crappy. We going to be a top 5 low snowfall winter at BUF? I flipped through the models quickly this morning and actually thought things were looking up...Big ridge forming above then on top of Alaska, shifting the trof east towards us, opening the door for some serious cold towards end of next week with the obvious lake effect implications. Thought there would be some positive vibes in here. I'm either really bad at model interpretation (likely) or the 79th consecutive morning of temps near 40 with drizzle/low clouds has succeeded in removing all winter hope... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I flipped through the models quickly this morning and actually thought things were looking up...Big ridge forming above then on top of Alaska, shifting the trof east towards us, opening the door for some serious cold towards end of next week with the obvious lake effect implications. Thought there would be some positive vibes in here. I'm either really bad at model interpretation (likely) or the 79th consecutive morning of temps near 40 with drizzle/low clouds has succeeded in removing all winter hope... Sorry about that. Like you, the dreary 40 degree weather is getting to me. I think some of us are just bummed by another miss and "good things in the long range" that we can't seem to actually see happen. We have another rainer and another warm up before the potential change at the end of next week. But, will it happen? The 6Z GFS just made it seem less likely. It's just one run. The 0Z Euro showed a potential snowmaker at the end of next week. We just want a change and patience is thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Thank god we have the Bills because that’s about the only good thing to look forward to with the weather pattern so darn crappy. We going to be a top 5 low snowfall winter at BUF? Some of us "have the Giants"...which is like having the past two winters. All we have left is rooting for the Bills, which is like cheering on West Coast snow... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 It was always Jamestown. It’s getting funnier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Pack it up. Even the METS are calling it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I flipped through the models quickly this morning and actually thought things were looking up...Big ridge forming above then on top of Alaska, shifting the trof east towards us, opening the door for some serious cold towards end of next week with the obvious lake effect implications. Thought there would be some positive vibes in here. I'm either really bad at model interpretation (likely) or the 79th consecutive morning of temps near 40 with drizzle/low clouds has succeeded in removing all winter hope... No you’re more right than wrong. There will be a pattern shift and I believe theres still a lot of confusion amongst how it all plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It was always Jamestown. It’s getting funnier. NAM also had WNY receiving 6” on the last system…toss… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pack it up. Even the METS are calling it. Guys were jumping in the pit of misery way too fast…in a 4 day period, one day of 10+ degree departures and 3 right at normal or even a degree or two below would give us AN temps. The system on the models is a 1 1/2 day “warm up” and back to cold. As Aaron Rodgers once said…R.E.L.A.X. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I can 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pack it up. Even the METS are calling it. I can hear the fat lady warming up in the background... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: NAM also had WNY receiving 6” on the last system…toss… I bet this ends up close. NAM is pretty good in this range and especially with the NW bias of La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Guys were jumping in the pit of misery way too fast…in a 4 day period, one day of 10+ degree departures and 3 right at normal or even a degree or two below would give us AN temps. The system on the models is a 1 1/2 day “warm up” and back to cold. As Aaron Rodgers once said…R.E.L.A.X. We are looking at slightly above wx as a pattern change? This winter is ova! It has been ova! It’s the pits! The worst! And worse than that? It’s the new normal. How’s that for RELAX. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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