Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[wolfie09]

As Dave would say"These models" lol Only have to wait till next weekend

[BGM Blizzard]

CMC takes the lead wave over PHL and it still doesn't matter. Can't win either way because this airmass absolutely blows. We be F'd.

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Ukmet starts to bring in the cold during precipitation, rain -snow verbatim..More as you go N/W obviously..

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Yesterdays totals

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

[BuffaloWeather]

I see some pretty good lake effect on almost all models next week. 

[wolfie09]

Overall GFS looks pretty good with several synoptic opportunities as well as LES behind each.. Last few runs have shown some fantasy goodies, we'll see how that looks as we get closer lol

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Overall GFS looks pretty good with several synoptic opportunities as well as LES behind each.. Last few runs have shown some fantasy goodies, we'll see how that looks as we get closer lol

Yeah next week looks good. This is getting within range finally on the Ensembles. Most of the stuff I was posting was 3-4+ weeks out, this is next week. Much more accurate. 

[Syrmax]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I see some pretty good lake effect on almost all models next week. 

You'll get nothing and like it!

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

Perhaps some lake effect/enhancement that melts the next day or two?

59 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

CMC takes the lead wave over PHL and it still doesn't matter. Can't win either way cuz this airmass just blows. We be F'd.

I'll gladly be in that screw hole for that one!

24 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

You'll get nothing and like it!

That picture I posted of you on the banter thread was pretty accurate, eh?

[TugHillMatt]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah next week looks good. This is getting within range finally on the Ensembles. Most of the stuff I was posting was 3-4+ weeks out, this is next week. Much more accurate. 

This looks good? Maybe only for your yard and the other places that do well with a SW/WSW wind..

 

Horrific.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This looks good? Maybe only for your yard and the other places that do well with a SW/WSW wind..

 

Horrific.

 Always chance to cash in unexpectedly on a SW flow for us Bufalonians. 

[wolfie09]

We all need different setups..How often does buffalo and syracuse get crushed in the same event? I'm sure it happens but not often lol What could be trash for Dave could be treasure to me and vice versa.. That's just how it works lol

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This looks good? Maybe only for your yard and the other places that do well with a SW/WSW wind..

 

Horrific.

Posting 210 hour snowfall map. I see arctic air, I see changing wind directions and I see good synoptic support. Its too far out to post low res global model snowfall totals. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

We all need different setups..How often does buffalo and syracuse get crushed in the same event? I'm sure it happens but not often lol What could be trash for Dave could be treasure to me and vice versa.. That's just how it works lol

That's why I like Clipper patterns. They "usually" provide enough moisture with varying wind directions for many to cash in.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We all need different setups..How often does buffalo and syracuse get crushed in the same event? I'm sure it happens but not often lol What could be trash for Dave could be treasure to me and vice versa.. That's just how it works lol

Yeah. Me and you are good with similar wind directions. But you've been skunked for years so I'm cheering for you to get a big one. 

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

That's why I like Clipper patterns. They "usually" provide enough moisture with varying wind directions for many to cash in.

Its tough for your place to get a big one. You need a ton to go right. NW flow is very transient and doesn't use Ontario to the full. Your best outcome would be a big synoptic event with a cold NW arctic flow behind. That way you get 1-2' from the storm and 1-2' from the LES. West flow generates the strongest band off Ontario and WSW/SW off Erie. The "blockbuster" events off of both lakes are always in those 2 wind directions. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its tough for your place to get a big one. You need a ton to go right. NW flow is very transient and doesn't use Ontario to the full. Your best outcome would be a big synoptic event with a cold NW arctic flow behind. That way you get 1-2' from the storm and 1-2' from the LES. West flow generates the strongest band off Ontario and WSW/SW off Erie. The "blockbuster" events off of both lakes are always in those 2 wind directions. 

Yeah, I really don't expect a blockbuster event here. I did when I was up in Redfield, and we know how that turned out. "Crickets"  

We haven't been able to get those Lows that sit off the New England coast/retrograde that give that constant flow of moisture and cold over Lake Ontario. Those are the "blockbusters" for Syracuse. I am not impressed with straight-up NW wind lake effect. It's often showery, and the "main band" trolls us and goes over the Finger Lakes. Unfortunately, there's been more of those stupid events the past several years than any other type of lake effect around here.

[Syrmax]

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Posting 210 hour snowfall map. I see arctic air, I see changing wind directions and I see good synoptic support. Its too far out to post low res global model snowfall totals. 

I see Lucy taking away the Football again!

[BuffaloWeather]

I knew it was bad but not 2nd warmest ever bad 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I knew it was bad but not 2nd warmest ever bad 

Just an awful month throughout the east. Congrats west coasters lol.

[wolfie09]

Euro for the synoptic system..

[tombo82685]

2 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

CMC takes the lead wave over PHL and it still doesn't matter. Can't win either way because this airmass absolutely blows. We be F'd.

That’s not the lead low. The lead low in your picture is up by Burlington vt. Frame prior you can see it better right over Rochester. Can see the southerly flow out ahead then northerly flow behind on wind barbs 

[BuffaloWeather]

Next week. Those temp disparities in peak cold climo is impressive. We're talking highs in the low 20s and lows in the single digits

[wolfie09]

Looking like a small window for LES..Not really seeing a steady band, slow moving band from south to north...

[Thinksnow18]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Next week. Those temp disparities in peak cold climo is impressive. We're talking highs in the low 20s and lows in the single digits

This is straight weather porn. EURO has no warmup at all next week…and has as many systems as the GFS…COULD we FINALLY be getting somewhere???

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

This is straight weather porn. EURO has no warmup at all next week…and has as many systems as the GFS…COULD we FINALLY be getting somewhere???

[BuffaloWeather]

GEPS look good for next weekend, beyond that we start to get a more +PNA and warmer air our west. Still not a bad look. These are from last nights run  

[LakeEffectKing]

An old professor of mine back in the eighties, once told me that when the northern hemispheric H500  pattern looks like Africa, it's a nice active, cold and stable pattern for the NE.....

.....I give you Africa in 2 weeks.

[BGM Blizzard]

53 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s not the lead low. The lead low in your picture is up by Burlington vt. Frame prior you can see it better right over Rochester. Can see the southerly flow out ahead then northerly flow behind on wind barbs 

Good catch. Thanks!