Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[TugHillMatt]

Humps Jamestown and Buffalo...then straddles Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River... TO INFINITY AND BEYOND!

[BGM Blizzard]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

GFS not much different than last run, similar track, little stronger once again..

Models def seem to be starting to lock in on an eastern GL cutter followed by an OTS trailing wave. Hopefully we at least dry slot so can possibly enjoy the warmer temps outside for a time on Saturday. Might be able to make a run at 60° near and south of the thruway if the Euro and GFS are correct. 

[Syrmax]

13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Humps Jamestown and Buffalo...then straddles Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River... TO INFINITY AND BEYOND!

Weekend looking like a lost cause attm but still plenty of time for model madness...

[BGM Blizzard]

Here are the frames off the 12z Euro and 0z GFS where the warm air makes the greatest inroads. Saturday night would actually be the peak highs for most sites.

[rochesterdave]

Decent wrap around on the canook 

[BuffaloWeather]

Do I see a clipper pattern with arctic air developing in the not so distant future or are my eyes deceiving me?

[BGM Blizzard]

CMC and UK both throw a bone to the Lake Plain zones. Not the best of models to have on your side but better than nothing. Maybe the Euro shifts a bit SE like the UK.

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do I see a clipper pattern with arctic air developing in the not so distant future or are my eyes deceiving me?

Deception. You've got Covid eyes.

[TugHillMatt]

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Decent wrap around on the canook 

Come on, Dave. Don't do this to yourself...unless you plan on melting like grilled cheese. How often does wrap around work? Now...what I DO think...is we have decent shot at some lake effect/enhancement on the backside.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Deception. You've got Covid eyes.

You're right it's a cutter pattern.

[wolfie09]

I may enjoy 5 more minutes of snow on Monday night..

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right it's a cutter pattern.

Ha. I did think the same thing though before seeing your post. It looks like it miiiiight be trying to give some hints of that pattern of which you speak. Until I see that ridge actually start to get pressed down akin to my snow weenie ego, I am skeptical of any clippers, screamers, maulers, etc. visiting from north of the border.

[wolfie09]

Actually decent agreement this far out on some lake effect potential Monday/Tues timeframe..GGEM, euro,gfs, icon all have it, for now lol

[Syrmax]

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Actually decent agreement this far out on some lake effect potential Monday/Tues timeframe..GGEM, euro,gfs, icon all have it, for now lol

SW flow? We Toss.

[winter_rules]

Quite the snow globe look outside this morning with +/-2” of wet snow stuck to everything.   Should be a beautiful start to the day once the sun comes up.  
 

I’m doing my best to live in the moment and ignore the fact that we aren’t forecasted to go below freezing again until Sunday night….

[winter_rules]

12 hours ago, Geez150 said:

It's funny you mentioned that,  because as I was out for a walk with the Mrs. I was just  thinking about this. That our winter daytime averages were right around the freeze mark give or take a degree. Now you raise that a few here or there and we are out of the  snow business  all together.  If 37-41 is our new winter weather I want zero part of any of that. I would  love to move and chase the cold and snow to Northern Maine or something like that but realistically that won't happen. I can only hope something  shifts back to cold winters while I am still young enough to care for cold and snow.

I have been thinking of this for the past few years as well.  Take a US map and draw a general east-west line where you expect winter to be primarily white or just hit and miss white. We happen to live JUST north of that line.  I would say the NY-PA border is a good general delineation….maybe a little south of the state line due to high elevations in much of northern PA.  Now add a few degrees and we’re quickly into “hit and miss” territory.  Not a lot of room to give, especially if you aren’t above 1,000-1,500ft in elevation.  

[Syrmax]

Final tally was 1.3" here. Ratio was just under 10:1, wet snow. Some would say "real" snow. 

Now looking forward to a mini torch the rest of the week and the weekend gullywasher to ring in the New Year and get rid of this annoying road salt.

[rochesterdave]

Pretty clear we miss due to the cut. Ugh. This winter. I really couldn’t imagine we were in for a fourth crap winter but here we are. 
Spectacularly bad so far. No big changes in sight. Here’s for mid January. Something to really look forward to

[rochesterdave]

And for yesterday? We didn’t come close to an inch. Just a wet dusting. Congrats to those who had a little. 
I’m gonna take a break and work on my attitude. At some point this becomes funny. 

[Syrmax]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Pretty clear we miss due to the cut. Ugh. This winter. I really couldn’t imagine we were in for a fourth crap winter but here we are. 
Spectacularly bad so far. No big changes in sight. Here’s for mid January. Something to really look forward to

This will be 3 in a row here, locally. Figuring (optimistically) that we nickle and dime our way to 20" total by mid January, that leaves essentially 2 months to make up the deficit and get to ~120" (Avg IMBY).  It's not impossible but we'd need 50"/month to get there. In this pattern we'd be lucky to get half that thru all of March.

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

This will be 3 in a row here, locally. Figuring (optimistically) that we get up to 20" total by mid January, that leaves essentially 2 months to make up the deficit and get to ~120" (Avg IMBY).  It's not impossible but we'd need 50"/month to get there. In this pattern we'd be lucky to get half that thru all of March.

I’m thinking 60”-70” at KBUF at best

[TugHillMatt]

27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m thinking 60”-70” at KBUF at best

I am going with 40 to 60 inches for the Cuse. 40 more dusting to 2 inch glops that melt within hours.

[BGM Blizzard]

BGM surged ahead in gutterball race with that 2.0" whopper last night.

BGM - 14.1

ROC - 13.9

SYR - 13.4

BUF - 10.6

ALY - 5.4

[wolfie09]

Normally we would flip to some snow as the system moves NE but the trough is slow as balls lol And the surface low is out ahead of the trough causing southerly flow..

 

A series of mid level shortwaves will race ENE out ahead of
the longwave trough, supporting the development of one or two
significant waves of low pressure over the central Mississippi
Valley.

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

BGM surged ahead in gutterball race with that 2.0" whopper last night.

BGM - 14.1

ROC - 13.9

SYR - 13.4

BUF - 10.6

ALY - 5.4

By mere decimals! Let the Battle of the Dustings commence! "My dusting was bigger than yours!" (Not this time.)

[wolfie09]

Well for those E/SE of the lakes, next best chance is some lake effect early next week before we do this all over again lol (another CF)..

 

A northwest flow of much colder air will allow lake effect snow to
develop southeast of the lakes Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
This will likely bring some potential for accumulating snow, but it
remains too early to distill any details on precise band placement
or intensity. Northwest flow lake effect will continue through
Monday morning before boundary layer flow becomes more westerly
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. It should remain cold
enough for lake effect to continue east of the lakes through Tuesday
morning.

850MB temps bottom out in the -16C to -18C range Monday, supporting
highs in the 20s in most locations and teens North Country. This
push of cold air is very temporary however, with yet another
significant warming trend developing later next week as the trough
and cold air re-loads in the west.

[BGM Blizzard]

34.2° and overcast with fog/mist here currently.

The overnight paste made for nice scenery this AM but that will be short-lived of course. 

[wolfie09]

GFS definitely a little better, actually some would probably be a mix-light snow.. Would be better than a washout lol

[CNY_WX]

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

GFS definitely a little better, actually some would probably be a mix-light snow.. Would be better than a washout lol

That is the second wave on the GFS. It takes the first wave from West Virginia to Cape Cod and still gives us rain. It bombs this wave over the Canada Maritimes to sub 980 mb. It would be a blizzard in down east Maine. 

[CNY_WX]