BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The pieces of energy for the weekend storm(s) are currently located invof eastern Russia and the western Alaskan shore. Not sure what the data sampling is like up in those parts but I'm guessing not very good? Might be a few days before they get sufficiently sampled closer to the Lower 48. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Fun to dream 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The biggest thing we have going for us is that NWS thinks it’s going NW. That’s definitely a point in favor of it doing the exact opposite. Lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Canadian is a warm cutter followed by a whiff. Not seeing much incentive to stay up for the Euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 UK is awful too. One can safely assume that wave would get shunted OTS off the SEUS with that look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Euro jumped on the Cutter train with RAIN across the entire Northeast this weekend (and a liiiiittle ice in the boonies of Maine.) Just ugly. With each successive run giving us less and less snow for next week, do we end up punting even farther into January? I have a feeling we're just going to keep on going with the pattern we've been stuck in. Strung out junk waves and mild air. This really seems like our base-state for winters now. Part of me is actually rooting for a big, massive cutter up through the Central Great Lakes to hopefully shake things up. In reality, we haven't had one for weeks and weeks...and we need a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Euro jumped on the Cutter train with RAIN across the entire Northeast this weekend (and a liiiiittle ice in the boonies of Maine.) Just ugly. With each successive run giving us less and less snow for next week, do we end up punting even farther into January? I have a feeling we're just going to keep on going with the pattern we've been stuck in. Strung out junk waves and mild air. This really seems like our base-state for winters now. Part of me is actually rooting for a big, massive cutter up through the Central Great Lakes to hopefully shake things up. In reality, we haven't had one for weeks and weeks...and we need a change. The Euro looks like a weak low passing west of us followed by a frontal passage. The only good out of it is it looks like it sets us up for some lake effect the beginning of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Fun to dream I noticed this am on WIVB and their backup meteorologist Mike Doyle show the snowfall forecast for tonight as dusting to an inch Buffalo north. This may very well be correct but 2 things jumped out at me, first was the actual model run itself and how much heavy snow was all over WNY and he actually mentions this, the second thing is in the color coding over Southern Ontario shows what would appear to be significantly more accumulation than right over the river into WNY… now seeing the ICON and the GFS and I’m starting to wonder a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Euro jumped on the Cutter train with RAIN across the entire Northeast this weekend (and a liiiiittle ice in the boonies of Maine.) Just ugly. With each successive run giving us less and less snow for next week, do we end up punting even farther into January? I have a feeling we're just going to keep on going with the pattern we've been stuck in. Strung out junk waves and mild air. This really seems like our base-state for winters now. Part of me is actually rooting for a big, massive cutter up through the Central Great Lakes to hopefully shake things up. In reality, we haven't had one for weeks and weeks...and we need a change. This is usually what it takes to shake the pattern up and get us some snow. It's painful but it pays off in the end. These weak sheared out systems and frontal passages we are having now just won't do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Hope so, I'm beyond ready for a flip. I like everyone else is ready for the cold and snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Man its icy, busted my ass at work. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Welp, 6Z GooFuS brings a brief snow to Southern tier and then 2 big gullywashers in the next 10-14 days, so, if true, we've lost half of January. We stand a real chance of challenging the low seasonal snowfall totals in the 2015/16 winter of discontent. I say if we're going low, go real low! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 If anyone was wondering the Euro Ens took a dump as well at 0z. Not much to hang hat on other than there still time for a miracle to happen. A lot of the mean snowfall is from tonight's event too, so by 12z tomorrow it'll probably look way worse lol. Chicago looks like a good place to be for the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 If the CSF was right, winter would effectively be over and we’d all smash our seasonal low totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: If anyone was wondering the Euro Ens took a dump as well at 0z. Not much to hang hat on other than there still time for a miracle to happen. A lot of the mean snowfall is from tonight's event too, so by 12z tomorrow it'll probably look way worse lol. Chicago looks like a good place to be for the next 7 days. Yeah, the upper Midwest into southern Canada (looking at you Wisconsin, Quebec) seem well situated in this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 If we're not gonna snow I hope we at least torch. I despise the cold and dry thing. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If we're not gonna snow I hope we at least torch. I despise the cold and dry thing. I am starting to agree with you on the torch. I despise 40 degrees with rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: If the CSF was right, winter would effectively be over and we’d all smash our seasonal low totals. To far fair the CFS show warm anamolies every month. I showed the euro vs CFS data awhile back and the euro destroys the CFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I am starting to agree with you on the torch. I despise 40 degrees with rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I noticed this am on WIVB and their backup meteorologist Mike Doyle show the snowfall forecast for tonight as dusting to an inch Buffalo north. This may very well be correct but 2 things jumped out at me, first was the actual model run itself and how much heavy snow was all over WNY and he actually mentions this, the second thing is in the color coding over Southern Ontario shows what would appear to be significantly more accumulation than right over the river into WNY… now seeing the ICON and the GFS and I’m starting to wonder a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Bingo. I really believe the NWS is under doing this event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Bingo. I really believe the NWS is under doing this event Shifted a bit north. Sizzlecuse would get into some perhaps measurable snowfall with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Guidance is trending drier for Friday followed by a synoptic system approaching the region from the Midwest and Ohio Valley for Saturday morning. Current guidance brings the different synoptic features across the region in pieces through the weekend. Earlier guidance at one point was phasing the northern and southern streams for a stronger system, which most of the current guidance is no longer doing. Either way, it looks like most of the weekend will have at least chance or higher POPs with mostly rain for Saturday and cooler air causing a change over to snow on Sunday, stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Bingo. I really believe the NWS is under doing this event They are going with warm BL temps..They have a low of 36° for buffalo Wed night..Now Nam keeps buffalo at exactly 33° the entire event.. Kuchera showing something like 7-8/1 ratios, so if the precipitation isn't coming down heavy it may have trouble sticking much.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Scratch that, that's for tomorrow, they are going 33°, exactly what the NAM is showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Yep take whatever we can get tonight. Here 12z runs of the NAM 3k, Rgem, and HRRR. Kuchera is generally estimating ratios in the range of 7-8:1 which seems reasonable given the marginal temps/thickness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I just witnessed an epic melt on the New England subforum. It lead to a bunch of bickering between members and a moderator had to delete a bunch of stuff. It was hilarious. Made me feel better about my melts. "My melts are smaller than yours!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: To far fair the CFS show warm anamolies every month. I showed the euro vs CFS data awhile back and the euro destroys the CFS. Yeah, CSF is trash. It’s just starting to feel more like a done deal. The most annoying part is getting your hopes up every couple weeks just to have them dashed. What does euro show for the LR? I have a subscription but can’t figure where to find that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Here another 12z run for tonight. Not familiar with the National Blend of Models (NBM) and only has 10:1 available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah, CSF is trash. It’s just starting to feel more like a done deal. The most annoying part is getting your hopes up every couple weeks just to have them dashed. What does euro show for the LR? I have a subscription but can’t figure where to find that data. Posted these off the Euro weeklies yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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