tim123 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Gfs all over the place run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 A secondary off the New England coast and most of New York is still rain. I have mentioned this several times over the past few years. I mean, there IS cold air available this year in Canada...so that should be able to work into the system. I suppose it's moving too fast and developing too late to tap into much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 I’m just looking at today locally…the Mets were all wrong today. It was supposed to be above freezing by thus time per all the stations…still below here in Williamsville. I’m also watching the report right now and the in house models show all snow tomorrow and a hood hit of it…hey Todd STILL wants to state it’ll be sat we than it’s bring depicting…here’s my thought…I’m thinking these models are not picking up the finite parts of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 Lake Tahoe ski resort closed due to too much snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: A secondary off the New England coast and most of New York is still rain. I have mentioned this several times over the past few years. I mean, there IS cold air available this year in Canada...so that should be able to work into the system. I suppose it's moving too fast and developing too late to tap into much. Plenty cold enough in Canada but look at the 850 low and those lovely SW winds lol Still time for change, who knows the first system could become the storm of interest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 28 minutes ago, tim123 said: From airplane. What a a hole. Think all models are struggling. Tends to portray a pattern change. I agree with this. Now the GFS is Uber cold with not one but 2 huge at it highs at the end of the run. I do believe the models are struggling big time and will take days to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Plenty cold enough in Canada but look at the 850 low and those lovely SW winds lol Still time for change, who knows the first system could become the storm of interest . I could see that happening. But, we have seen the models blow these storms up and make them cutters, only to see them become weak waves passing through on a fast flow. If we see a cutter, we may be able to get a deeper cold shot behind...rather than continue the mild air that exists behind these waves zipping across. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nothing compares with the bolded though, I don't think you guys know how big of a deal that is. It means Dec 27th is the warmer than anytime in history on Oct 5th and April 21st, Fall/Spring. That is just insanity.... In temperature recorded history. If this happens again and again, then big deal. A one-off in a perfectly place extreme blocking pattern is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Fwiw (and it ain't much), the 18z GEFS were significantly snowier than the 12z run of GEFS and EPS. Looks like a lot of feast or famine solutions. Here's the mean and member snowfall thru H198 (Tuesday evening) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 40 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Fwiw (and it ain't much), the 18z GEFS were significantly snowier than the 12z run (and EPS as well). Looks like a lot of feast or famine solutions. Here's the mean and member snowfall thru H198 (Tuesday evening) 7 and 8 please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Euro weeklies offer some hope to the relentless SE ridge. Pretty near spot on match to this NOAA forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 WWA definitely warranted for this evening. Temp holding at 31 and we just had thunder/lightning with sleet/freezing rain mix. Paved surfaces are glazed over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Attention will then turn towards a large synoptic system that will impact our region Saturday and Sunday. Several shortwave troughs across the West will merge over the Plains to start the weekend, with an eventual negatively tilted deep trough over the east coast. The global models and their ensemble members still are in disagreement about the track of the surface low, with the GFS and Canadian operational models taking the track to the north of us, while the ECMWF keeps the surface low suppressed to our south. Will favor the climatological favored track of the low cutting by to our west and north, with warming temperatures Saturday Night...with any snow changing over to rain, before a cold front Sunday ends the warm temperatures with rain changing back to snow. High pressure returns later Sunday Night and Monday with a much cooler airmass, and trending drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Attention will then turn towards a large synoptic system that will impact our region Saturday and Sunday. Several shortwave troughs across the West will merge over the Plains to start the weekend, with an eventual negatively tilted deep trough over the east coast. The global models and their ensemble members still are in disagreement about the track of the surface low, with the GFS and Canadian operational models taking the track to the north of us, while the ECMWF keeps the surface low suppressed to our south. Will favor the climatological favored track of the low cutting by to our west and north, with warming temperatures Saturday Night...with any snow changing over to rain, before a cold front Sunday ends the warm temperatures with rain changing back to snow. High pressure returns later Sunday Night and Monday with a much cooler airmass, and trending drier. This, right here, defines our climate...with the steroids its on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This, right here, defines our climate...with the steroids its on. Climatological? That seems like rubbish unless they are defining climate as the past few years? If they said pattern based, I'd understand that, and agree. Parsing words of course cuz...what else is there to do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Climatological? That seems like rubbish unless they are defining climate as the past few years? If they said pattern based, I'd understand that, and agree. Parsing words of course cuz...what else is there to do? Agreed and you beat me to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Tomorrow night quietly trending more positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Tomorrow night quietly trending more positive. Hell yeah. Temps look a bit marginal down this way but hoping we can squeeze out 2-3" of pasty snow so I can do some plowing with the Deere again on Wednesday morning. 0z 3k and 12k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Hell yeah. Temps look a bit marginal down this way but hoping we can squeeze out 2-3" of pasty snow so I can do some plowing with the Deere again on Wednesday morning. 0z 3k and 12k NAM I’m interested as to why the trajectory of the accumulation to the west over lower Michigan doesn’t translate east…notice the hole over WNY? That seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 The west coast setting snow total records means this is a pattern based issue not AGW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The west coast setting snow total records means this is a pattern based issue not AGW. Don't be so sensible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m interested as to why the trajectory of the accumulation to the west over lower Michigan doesn’t translate east…notice the hole over WNY? That seems odd NAM has the weak low getting to SWPA and heading due south before disappearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Whoa! Thunder snow/sleet! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Whoa! Thunder snow/sleet! Had that earlier here with some of the convective elements passing through, no snow though. Very impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 0z GFS moved a bit north as well for tomorrow's event. Might be a Southern Tier special. Cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 GFS has decent hit for BUF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS has decent hit for BUF Did you see what it did for the weekend system??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Coming in different again, no surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Did you see what it did for the weekend system??? Exactly what I said earlier, toss the GFS as far as the long range NAM. Look at GFS today for same time frame LOL 12z 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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