TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Where I am at in Central PA all the poster in the Susquehanna Valley are reporting moderate snowfall with ground coverings. Here? Heavy VIRGA. Barely a flurry. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Where I am at in Central PA all the poster in the Susquehanna Valley are reporting moderate snowfall with ground coverings. Here? Heavy VIRGA. Barely a flurry. Lol Same here. Occasional flurry is all so far. Meanwhile the temp has risen from 27 to 31 now. Likely going to be a non-event down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Gfs is cutter and then suppression. Lmao. Hopefully its the gfs loosing things in mid range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Gfs wants to hold back energy in sw. Icon pretty much brings it all out at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 24 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs is cutter and then suppression. Lmao. Hopefully its the gfs loosing things in mid range. Yeah that's the worst case scenario but entirely possible. That first cutter could really mess things up. But if accurately depicted, the GFS was still pretty close to producing a phased bomb for the 2nd storm. Going to take a few days to see how that energy in the SW unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Same here. Occasional flurry is all so far. Meanwhile the temp has risen from 27 to 31 now. Likely going to be a non-event down here. Looks like you have to be a few miles away from taint to see any snowfall. Otherwise, it's shredded by dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah that's the worst case scenario but entirely possible I think. That first cutter really messes things up for the trailing storm to come up north in time. Certainly possible. With this winter likely. But I know gfs tends to loose storms in mid ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 As this winter proceeds I’m starting to ask myself is there any other hobby I could take up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs is cutter and then suppression. Lmao. Hopefully its the gfs loosing things in mid range. Yeah, then it gets "cold" and dry. Not much lake effect. Then you can see the ridge trying to push back in. If we don't see anything different by the end of next week, I will be about ready to call it another dud of another winter. Who knows...we could get a month of good winter like last year, but a month of REAL winter just doesn't do it for me. I guess this is what our winters have become. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Jfc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: As this winter proceeds I’m starting to ask myself is there any other hobby I could take up? Knitting pretty white jackets that cross and contain your arms? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 There's a LOW off the New England coast and the ONLY places getting snow in the Northeast are extreme Northern New England. LOL. Multiple Lows ruining the whole setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Knitting pretty white jackets that cross and contain your arms? Yeah that’s about the extent of it…or becoming a ghost hunter or Bigfoot hunter…at least with those there’s always the thrill of the chase…BTW the 12z doubled down and ALL systems are warm cutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah that’s about the extent of it…or becoming a ghost hunter or Bigfoot hunter…at least with those there’s always the thrill of the chase…BTW the 12z doubled down and ALL systems are warm cutters. Makes some sense. Trough west, ridge east, it all goes N&W as the trough temporarily slides eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 To be honest the models look confused as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 The GFS really wasn't far off from being more wintry this weekend. It doesn't make it a huge cutter. It makes it our typical front-end mix ending as some rain. I think that's going to be our pattern/systems for the winter. 1 to 3 inches of slush/mix to rain showers...then mild around 40 until the next one comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 The most discouraging thing about this early week's model runs are the clear portrayals that we just can't shake the bloody ridging over the Central and Eastern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Rough pattern. But the default is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Rough pattern. But the default is warmer Yeah I don’t think this pattern is going to budge. We may see a week or two of winter this season but that’s about it. One thing you can count on besides death and taxes is the inevitable delay of cold air on the models 10 days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The GFS really wasn't far off from being more wintry this weekend. It doesn't make it a huge cutter. It makes it our typical front-end mix ending as some rain. I think that's going to be our pattern/systems for the winter. 1 to 3 inches of slush/mix to rain showers...then mild around 40 until the next one comes through. Look on the bright side. Only 3 more months of "this" to endure. With Odin's blessing we'll be breaking out the suntan lotion early next year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Look on the bright side. Only 3 more months of "this" to endure. With Odin's blessing we'll be breaking out the suntan lotion early next year! Ha! If "this" is what winters are going to be for the next couple decades, I may actually take my wife up on moving to the south. An inch of slush that melts in a couple hours followed by days of dreary 40 degree rain is......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Look on the bright side. Only 3 more months of "this" to endure. With Odin's blessing we'll be breaking out the suntan lotion early next year! This is the first year I’ve ridden my bicycle in December. Maybe I can extend that to January and February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Look on the bright side. Only 3 more months of "this" to endure. With Odin's blessing we'll be breaking out the suntan lotion early next year! In 2012 I could have opened my pool in March. I'd take that again. Floating in March would be a first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe we can turn our OT forum into a Melt Room since discussion of anything interesting ist verboten. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Maybe we can turn our OT forum into a Melt Room since discussion of anything interesting ist verboten. Melt away. I'll be creating a new and improved thread later this week after this warmup. It snowed lightly all morning here, pretty wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Rollers like these aren’t very predictable. Pushed west to east on a rapid jet. Far different from the ones we really like with a big dip in the jet that allows them to ride south to north. It’s a rough pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Melt away. I'll be creating a new and improved thread later this week after this warmup. It snowed lightly all morning here, pretty wintry. I saw a couple of grainy flakes outside. I think they were mistakes. We will need a new 2022 thread soon enough. It's pretty much the same sh*t as the past two winters. But, we can put new lipstick on an old pig for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Melt away. I'll be creating a new and improved thread later this week after this warmup. It snowed lightly all morning here, pretty wintry. Thread Title: Upstate/Eastern New York-It's Still November... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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