Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That sneaky system on Thursday now goes over us on the GFS lol

Eh, we've still got the sneaky system for tomorrow and the sneaky system for Tuesday night to get through before Thursday's sneaky system. lol

For as crappy as it has seemed, we have still managed to see snowflakes and small coverings the past couple weeks. Weeks that have looked like absolutely no snow could fall have turned into weeks with pennies thrown out to us. This week looks to continue that theme.

[wolfie09]

Well the farther north you go the more of a non event the first two are..Each wave gets shredded..NWS going with trace amounts for the first event..

Maybe buffalo/southern tier can see a couple/few inches over the next couple days..

[TugHillMatt]

I actually think BUF is being too conservative with that call. The models are showing these systems breaking through a bit more within 1 to 2 days of an event. Hence, the "surprises" we keep seeing. Some of New England has been able to get more than the models were showing. In addition, the models have actually been too warm. So, I think we are already seeing some changes in the pattern and lots of errors/struggles in the models even during the events.

[BGM Blizzard]

0z GFS similar to the 12z Canadian with the 2nd wave. Deepens to sub 950mb in Northern New England. Glancing blow of snow to eastern half of NYS on the way through. 

[BuffaloWeather]

That's a complicated setup with 2 systems forming. Good luck to all the Mets this week.

[TugHillMatt]

I think it's a pretty safe bet that between Saturday and Tuesday all of us will be seeing some snow. Based on past trends, as Syrmax alluded to, I think the first one being a cutter and then a secondary forming somewhere between the Apps and the coast is the most likely outcome. If the primary is strong, it will cut. We still have that SE ridge. If it's weak, it will be flatter and we will get another little snowfall/mix/rain, with the secondary (if it happens) forming farther south and not affecting us much.

I do think one of our better widespread lake effect opportunities comes early next week as well. 

[TugHillMatt]

Canadian follows suit with the GFS in giving us a Grinch New Year's Day. Man, if that happens...Grinch Thanksgiving, Grinch Christmas, and Grinch New Year.

[BGM Blizzard]

Even though it's far fetched fantasy output, a 949mb mslp on the eastern seaboard as modeled by CMC and GFS would probably set some records (atleast for this time of year outside hurricane season). By Dvorak estimates, a 949mb mslp in the Atlantic basin would typically translate to near Cat 4 hurricane intensity. Be helluva storm to experience in the winter time. 

[BGM Blizzard]

2nd storm doesn't really materialize in time on the 0z CMC. Mostly a whiff to the east. Lots of potential though. Doesn't seem like it would take much to get a highly amped/phased solution on the east coast.

[TugHillMatt]

9 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

2nd storm doesn't really materialize in time on the 0z CMC. Mostly a whiff to the east. Lots of potential though. Doesn't seem like it would take much to get a highly amped/phased solution on the east coast.

If that Low formed the way it did as shown on the CMC, that would be my first experience since moving here with a Lake-Enhanced snow band brought in on WNW winds from a Low sitting off the New England coast. Those are the events that help Syracuse get that Golden Snowball.

[BGM Blizzard]

0z UK at 144. Its faster and more amped than the 12z Euro at the same timeframe. Trough almost going neutral, but too far out to really try and extrapolate the run though. 

 

[rochesterdave]

One run. 300 miles…..

[Syrmax]

Here is 00Z GFS for 00Z Sunday, same time frame as Ukie and Euro posted above. GFS has two separate sfc lows ejecting NE with the 2nd going postal. Very sus and will probably change.

Trough does go neutral tilt over the MS river Valley and neg tilt on east coast, which is roughly what you want for an EC storm.

[Syrmax]

00Z Euro has next weekend system as weaker, trough never goes neg tilt in eastern US. Would still possibly be a minor/moderate snowfall for this forum.

[rochesterdave]

EURO came in with a decent system. 

[LakeEffectKing]

GGEM goes ape sh!t with that second wave next week.  930mb would break some sort of record in N. Atlantic (at that latitude) for non tropical system.

[Thinksnow18]

6z GFS and 00z Euro couldn’t be in a bigger disagreement regarding this weekend 

[BGM Blizzard]

6 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

EURO came in with a decent system. 

It delayed the kick out of the 1st storm such that it managed to track underneath us to deliver that outcome. The 2nd storm consequently went OTS off the SEUS. The other models still like the initial storm as a GL cutter followed by a 2nd storm going somewhere up the east coast. As BW said, good luck to the Mets this week for trying to sort this mess out.

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

6z GFS and 00z Euro couldn’t be in a bigger disagreement regarding this weekend 

People defend the "off hour" op model runs as being equal in "accuracy" (probably not the right word) but it sure seems they go wobbly quite often.  Could just be a result of expected run to run variation esp almost a week out.  It's almost like reviewing 16 or more ensemble panels and trying to pick a winner.  Can only get a flavor that something could be brewing, at least digitally.. 

[BGM Blizzard]

0z Euro Ens Mean snowfall and total snowfall still have a lot of duds in the population.

[Syrmax]

14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

0z Euro Ens Mean snowfall and total snowfall still have a lot of duds in the population.

 

Pretty wide distribution in there. Tells me another couple of days before NWP figures this out. 

[wolfie09]

After that, weather will turn more active for the remainder of the
period as one or more waves of low pressure ripple northeast along a
baroclinic zone that will be slowly sagging southeastward across,
and then south of our region. Still differences on track of primary
low lifting across region late next weekend. GFS and Canadian track
main low along and northwest of here, so a climatology look and one
that would open possibility to strong winds. ECMWF is different and
continues to take strong trough out of central Plains and quickly
shoves it toward Mid Atlantic States as strongest jet energy remains
on front side of the upper trough, so this would not be near as
windy as a look and would be a northeast flow instead of southwest
to northwest. In terms of sensible weather, some winter could be in
store. Widespread precip arrives on Saturday, which depending on
track of low would be mainly rain or a mix of rain/snow or only
snow. Eventually though no matter what model is preferred, colder
air working in later in the weekend would result in mainly snow and
potentially some lake effect beyond that as well. Details will need
to be sorted out. Going to depend on track of the sfc low, but in
general there is an increasing potential for synoptic snow to start
off the new year.

As for temperatures, they will start off similar to what we have
been seeing recently with highs slightly above normal through Sat.
However, by the time we reach the first Monday of 2022, it could be
a whole different story with what may be a very sharp cooldown per
operational GFS/ECMWF and Canadian as well as GFS and ECMWF ensemble
data.

[vortmax]

Yet another South Shore snub. 

[TugHillMatt]

39 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Yet another South Shore snub. 

Coastal Mid-Atlantic, New York.

[tim123]

Icon has a bomb. 

[Thinksnow18]

Snowing moderately in Williamsville…will result in coating #15678 of the season

[tim123]

[Thinksnow18]

Mix of snow and sleet in Cheektowaga 

[tim123]

Icon for jan 2 and 3rd. Here's to hoping. Lol

[TugHillMatt]

13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Snowing moderately in Williamsville…will result in coating #15678 of the season

Hey now. Don't be dusting your way to the Golden Snow Booger award. That has my name on it.