Syrmax Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 45 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Trailing storm stays an open positively tilted wave on the Euro and misses east. Blah. Trough amchored west pushes everything NW of Apos then briefly relaxes and something slides through south. Then will reload West. Seen this many times in past. We'll get something later in winter but the next month is shot for any meaningful synoptic. Maybe a few weeks in late Jan and Feb will be decent. Feels like 2020/21 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 12z Euro Ens 10 day snowfall spread and mean snowfall. Alot of duds with some decent hits mixed in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 Sneaky little event now showing up for Thursday on GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Euro has it too but a little farther east..It's gone next frame so it's a quick hitter somewhere down there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z Euro Ens 10 day snowfall spread and mean snowfall. Alot of duds with some decent hits mixed in. That's a brutally bad look for a 10 day period at this time of year. Fortunately, ensembles change as conditions evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sneaky little event now showing up for Thursday on GFS 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro has it too but a little farther east..It's gone next frame so it's a quick hitter somewhere down there lol It also came waaaay farther south again with the New Year's Day system. Most bipolar model ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: That's a brutally bad look for a 10 day period at this time of year. Fortunately, ensembles change as conditions evolve. I thought the same thing. 3 to 5 inches over 10 days during our primetime winter period? Meh. It will change, like you said... hopefully for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's a brutally bad look for a 10 day period at this time of year. Fortunately, ensembles change as conditions evolve. Well to be fair the next 5 days is 40s so they don't really count. The pattern change doesn't start until new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 These temp values in our coldest month equates to guaranteed snowfall with wide open warm lakes. I doubt we get cold and dry with 40-44 degree lakes. Anything is possible but that would be quite rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 GEFS for Thursdays event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Model performance is so bad, including the ensembles. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Maine keeps getting lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 GEFS has a very warm anomaly through Jan 4th. So still too soon to get hopeful for anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS for Thursdays event Is this a night time event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: 949!!! Lol. These models. This is straight up pornography. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS for Thursdays event I mean how does this suddenly appear inside 96 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mean how does this suddenly appear inside 96 hours? Very fast flow with lots of little impulses of energy. Oh, and Covid. It was involved somehow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Great Graphic ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, sferic said: "Great" Graphic ! Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 That's for Tuesday night, we have a few chances at light mix this week including HWO for Monday into Tuesday.. Seen a few flakes today from something lol Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers before 1am, then snow likely between 1am and 4am, then a chance of snow showers after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 We should all be happy that we're going to lose that insane -6 STD persistent PNA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 GEFS show loads of synoptic chances next 2 weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty much a 4 way tie for the Golden snowball. BGM usually only contends in the shitty winters when everyone is well BN snowfall. I'd have to look but I'm guessing BGM has never won in back to back years, maybe this will be the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS show loads of synoptic chances next 2 weeks. One is bound to score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS show loads of synoptic chances next 2 weeks. Im driving down to Florida around January 10th. Taking a longer route along the VA-NC-SC-GA coastline. Ideally I see one legitimate winter storm before then. Dont really want to drive thru PA in one haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Well my son reported things are pretty sh*tty as far as road conditions out near Tacoma and Bremerton Washington with the snow. Apparently their snow removal / treatment capabilities are on par with a lot of the southern US...major roads were basically a no-go zone today. I never thought about it but I guess that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS show loads of synoptic chances next 2 weeks. An improved look of late on models but I'd put my $ on the upper Midwest scoring best. This pattern looks really familiar to past winter, or two...we are probably in for a lot of "in between" events and maybe a gullywasher thrown in. It doesn't look like a flip to ridge west / trough east is coming anytime soon. Who knows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, Syrmax said: An improved look of late on models but I'd put my $ on the upper Midwest scoring best. This pattern looks really familiar to past winter, or two...we are probably in for a lot of "in between" events and maybe a gullywasher thrown in. It doesn't look like a flip to ridge west / trough east is coming anytime soon. Who knows. It's still possible we get cutters with colder air behind. But its 100% better than the pattern we've been in which virtually guarantees no snow. If you tell me we're going to get a January with temps 1-2 degrees below normal with 40 degree lakes I'm going to say we get above normal snowfall for the month. Just hoping to get a few ski sessions in next month. Holiday has been struggling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 That system on Thursday now goes over us on the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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