Syrmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, vortmax said: And we know the actual is basically shifting the 3rd map west about 20-30 miles West. Rant off. We will still get our <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 For this evening/overnight.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 37 minutes ago, vortmax said: Rant on. 1st forecast: 2nd: 3rd: And we know the actual is basically shifting the 3rd map west about 20-30 miles West. Rant off. They were probably banking on it to go farther North than the models were showing (like what usually happens). But, of course the bands didn't do that this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For this evening/overnight.. I'm still sticking with a quarter to half inch for Sizzleshreddercuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Wet blanket here. Fundamentals remain exactly the same through mid/early Jan (as far as it goes). Perhaps a touch weaker on the Aleutian heights. I wouldn’t look for anything lasting until after second week of Jan. I don’t know where this relentless optimism comes from online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Wet blanket here. Fundamentals remain exactly the same through mid/early Jan (as far as it goes). Perhaps a touch weaker on the Aleutian heights. I wouldn’t look for anything lasting until after second week of Jan. I don’t know where this relentless optimism comes from online. I think you're reading that wrong. That's a pretty good look for early/mid January. That look shows a reduction in the record PNA and the PV on our side of the globe which allows the colder air to seep eastward. You don't need below normal temps for January in our area. Normal and even slightly above normal do just fine for the coldest month of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 We should be in the battleground zone Let's not forget temps in this timerange average in low 30s for highs and low 20s/high teens for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 The EPS show a good pattern developing around new year. Its still possible the SE ridge flexes its muscle in mid january but right now the first week of January "should" be quite wintry. You can expect temps to be 1-2 degrees below normal on average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Remember that crazy heatwave across western canada in summer? It broke all time record highs across the country. Well they are now smashing some record low records too. Talk about 2 extremes in the same year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 The GFS is showing -43 degree temps just north of the border after new years. The years that worry me are the ones where Canada is on fire. We have a source of cold air directly to our north, just need a mechanism to get it over here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just saying it's not the best pattern, but its definitely workable. Looks like a front end thump for most areas tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Latest GFS pretty much drops PV on the lakes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest GFS pretty much drops PV on the lakes Now THAT looks different! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Epic Lake effect potential right there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest GFS pretty much drops PV on the lakes Just 293 hours away! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Another sneaky lake effect to watch? Close! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Why can’t there be just a tiny bit of cold air?!? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 It’s actually closer than we realize. (Not suggesting anything…..yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Another sneaky lake effect to watch? Close! Wait till Matt sees this.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just saying it's not the best pattern, but its definitely workable. Looks like a front end thump for most areas tonight? Moderate snow in Williamsville ATM…of course it’s as useful to me as a brinks truck full of money that rolls over, dumps its contents on the ground only to realize it’s marked and unusable… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Why can’t there be just a tiny bit of cold air?!? Lol 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wait till Matt sees this.. Lol... The Low goes right to Syracuse...and then the lake effect goes everywhere but here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 The jan 1-5th period has the potential for some cold to finally come east. As we get a solid assist form the strat with a strong wave 2 hit. Not gonna lie that map looks like a giant phallus Also looks like that timeframe has a bit of pacific burp that allows some eastward progression of -pna. In general though, the same key ingredients remain intact in the pacific. Until that shifts, get use to the cold dumping out west with se ridge. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: The jan 1-5th period has the potential for some cold to finally come east. As we get a solid assist form the strat with a strong wave 2 hit. Also looks like that timeframe has a bit of pacific burp that allows some eastward progression of -pna. In general though, the same key ingredients remain intact in the pacific. Until that shifts, get use to the cold dumping out west with se ridge. Seems like in general, the cold air will be more accessible to us at the beginning of January. The MJO in 7, if it's strong enough to have any effect, is more helpful in January than December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Seems like in general, the cold air will be more accessible to us at the beginning of January. The MJO in 7, if it's strong enough to have any effect, is more helpful in January than December. The first 5 days or so yes. Looks like an overrunning event or cutter right around new years or jan 2nd brings the cold east. But until the main players in the pacific basin shift, I think it just reverts right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s actually closer than we realize. (Not suggesting anything…..yet) 850s reminiscent of an Alabama summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: 850s reminiscent of an Alabama summer. Yeah. But still closer than they were. We need about 2-4F cooler over WNY. And that’s just for backside snow showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Not gonna lie that map looks like a giant phallus Until that shifts, get use to the cold dumping out west with se ridge. So basically what you're saying is we are gonna continue to get the shaft this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 850s reminiscent of an Alabama summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 I realize it’s nuts. But how many times have we had snowstorms trend warmer (into rain) inside of 48-72 hours? How come it can’t go the other way? I’m expecting Matt will have a good answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 Winter is cancelled this year so stop tracking guys! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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