DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Get that snow blower fired up yet? I think im actually going to shovel so I can consolidate the snow effectively into bigger piles. I love the snow blower but it’s not conducive for making nice piles. I’m hoping to see how long I can keep a pile around during these next two weeks of torches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: I think im actually going to shovel so I can consolidate the snow effectively into bigger piles. I love the snow blower but it’s not conducive for making nice piles. I’m hoping to see how long I can keep a pile around during these next two weeks of torches. Lol... I once shared a townhouse with a guy who hated snow. When I shoveled the driveway in the morning, I would make nice big piles in shaded areas to "save the snow." I would come home from work to find he broke up the snow piles and shoveled some of the snow BACK on the driveway to melt it in the afternoon sun! Drove me bonkers! Hahaha.... Serious snow battles between the two of us. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol... I once shared a townhouse with a guy who hated snow. When I shoveled the driveway in the morning, I would make nice big piles in shaded areas to "save the snow." I would come home from work to find he broke up the snow piles and shoveled some of the snow BACK on the driveway to melt it in the afternoon sun! Drove me bonkers! Hahaha.... Serious snow battles between the two of us. Lol I’d be so mad! I have a huge tree that blocks the sun really well and I usually make a nice pile behind it. Glad to hear I’m not alone in my strategies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol... I once shared a townhouse with a guy who hated snow. When I shoveled the driveway in the morning, I would make nice big piles in shaded areas to "save the snow." I would come home from work to find he broke up the snow piles and shoveled some of the snow BACK on the driveway to melt it in the afternoon sun! Drove me bonkers! Hahaha.... Serious snow battles between the two of us. Lol You like snow more then anyone I’ve ever met, you really need one of these. I’m getting you this for Christmas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: That bgm band better slacken up. I’m driving right into that in 1.5 hrs O stfu with that! Just kidding. You should be fine. The heaviest rates have stayed west of I-81 so the major highways are mostly just wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You like snow more then anyone I’ve ever met, you really need one of these. I’m getting you this for Christmas. Please, please, pleeeeeeease. Forego one of your worldwide trips and put that money into a snow machine and @Thinksnow18's property he is going to buy me on the Tug for banishment. My family has joked with me many times over the years about getting a snow machine. My wife and I laughed at that one commercial where the family member is living in a snow globe with a snow machine while it's a tropical paradise on the other side. My wife has proposed us doing the same... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Syracuse is up to 9.5 for the winter How does that rank for December? In a word: sh*tty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: O stfu with that! Just kidding. You should be fine. The heaviest rates have stayed west of I-81 so the major highways are mostly just wet. Yea I’m about to bgm now. While snowing it’s mostly just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: In a word: sh*tty. So instead of ranking with number values, I am intrigued to know the adjectives you use in your winter rankings..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So instead of ranking with number values, I am intrigued to know the adjectives you use in your winter rankings..... Pretty sure our censor won't look kindly on my characterizations...esp if we replay 2015/16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You like snow more then anyone I’ve ever met, you really need one of these. I’m getting you this for Christmas. Did you forget about sled hill???! The guy made a track around his house!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 It’s true. The best ones aren’t forecasted. What a great surprise. 4.5” in Pittsford. Champagne powder. It’ll be a race against the warmth to see if we can make it to Christmas. Big kudos to the RGEM for being the only model to sniff it out- several runs in advance. It is far and away our best LES model. One note: the band ended further SW of what was modeled. Typically they end up a tick NE. But as everyone knows, south shore lake effect is impossible to forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I’m in northeast pa right now and they have more than cuse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Can't even get wrap around in the form of snow lol PW on the other hand has no precipitation over us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Did you forget about sled hill???! The guy made a track around his house!!! I remember him. I don't remember him having a snow machine, he just groomed what snow was on the ground. That backyard was amazing though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s true. The best ones aren’t forecasted. What a great surprise. 4.5” in Pittsford. Champagne powder. It’ll be a race against the warmth to see if we can make it to Christmas. Big kudos to the RGEM for being the only model to sniff it out- several runs in advance. It is far and away our best LES model. One note: the band ended further SW of what was modeled. Typically they end up a tick NE. But as everyone knows, south shore lake effect is impossible to forecast. It really is. But most days you get a moist NW flow you can expect some type of LES band to form, where is anyones guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 NAM is a little colder than the GFS with about a 6hr window for some wrap around snow showers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 @DeltaT13 That really was a fluff bomb. 1:25 ratio looks like? .10=3.2" 1:32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NAM is a little colder than the GFS with about a 6hr window for some wrap around snow showers.. ...and per usual, look at the "cutout" of snow from the Syracuse area. Lol In reality, crap like that has happened so many times... it's just, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Much, much less snow in Irondequoit. Only about 1/2” up here. Wild the difference a few miles makes. Areas of Monroe with almost nothing and areas over 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and per usual, look at the "cutout" of snow from the Syracuse area. Lol In reality, crap like that has happened so many times... it's just, My "snowpack" is sublimating away today. I think the back pool deck may retain some snow/ice into Xmas morning. White Christmas! if only I lived in a real snowbelt like Mt. Tolland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Lake erie at 41 degrees, 4 above normal. We have the potential for 40 degree lake temps in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I decided to peruse some of the previous discussions from the past. Could go back even more, but just went back to December 2019. Same theme, same discouragement. The Pacific has been destroying our Decembers and much of Januaries. Oh, the things I could have cut and pasted... (Oh, and Syracuse will probably hit the new year with even LESS snowfall than last November/December! lol... Just awful. Snippets from December 2019 On 12/24/2019 at 2:51 PM, BuffaloWeather said: This is a long stretch of way above normal temps for late Dec. This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. _______________________________________________ Buffaloweather: This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia. ________________________________________________________ Snippets from December 2020: rochesterdave Members 5.1k Location:W. Irondequoit, N. rochester Posted December 27, 2020 Seriously though, it’s been a tough time to live in Syracuse or Rochester as snow lovers. We do best in deep, cold winters with persistent NW flow- those winters might be gone. This pattern favors transient systems with quick, violent fronts. We need a winter that settles in with a deep eastern trough and an Alaskan ridge. If it wasn’t for blocking (at least that’s something) the raging pacific would be serving up exactly the same as we had last year. And that was bad enough. One of these storms should turn at the right longitude. This pattern is also good for a retrograde storm like Tim and I always dream about- get one to spin up in the atlantic then back in to the Adks and stall. Opportunities but these things only leave 50 mile swaths... On 12/27/2020 at 11:55 AM, Thinksnow18 said: I don’t think I’ve ever looked at 2 weeks of rain in January Buffaloweather: We just had that last January. January 2020 was the 9th warmest in the records. ____________________ Freak: I'm dead serious when I say we should go for the all time least snowiest season on record here in Syracuse because, from the looks of most guidance we may get to mid-January with not much accumulation so Ima start rooting for it, why not, since it doesn't want to snow anymore. _____________________ Buffaloweather: Posted December 28, 2020 Lots of cutters next 2 weeks. Should be a few really warm days tossed in there compared to average. Feel pretty confident in another above average month in January. Last year and this year are both back to back Ninas. The Southeast ridge has been killing our winters. Just a bad Pacific. I will say I would take what I am seeing for January over what last year brought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake erie at 41 degrees, 4 above normal. We have the potential for 40 degree lake temps in January. I bet you salivate at the possibility of some major LES off Erie IF we ever get some cold pouring in during January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last year and this year are both back to back Ninas. The Southeast ridge has been killing our winters. Just a bad Pacific. I will say I would take what I am seeing for January over what last year brought. Last year it was the EPO in connection with the SE ridge. This year it's the PNA in connection with the ridge. -NAO isn't really helping in terms of getting wintry precip. We just seem to have so many teleconnections and indices stacked against us in getting good winters in the Northeast quadrant of the country. Even so, not sure if it's just luck, but areas close by (like PA and New England) have still been able to luck out while we still have the same lame outcomes here. (Although 19-20 was awful for some of them.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Last year it was the EPO in connection with the SE ridge. This year it's the PNA in connection with the ridge. -NAO isn't really helping in terms of getting wintry precip. We just seem to have so many teleconnections and indices stacked against us in getting good winters in the Northeast quadrant of the country. Even so, not sure if it's just luck, but areas close by (like PA and New England) have still been able to luck out while we still have the same lame outcomes here. Yeah EPO or PNA, both some big time Pacific Ocean issues. Both years we had atlantic blocking as well. Just goes to show you PAC>ATL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Pretty good consensus of pattern change around the new year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty good consensus of pattern change around the new year That is very good consensus. Let's keep it there and not pushing it back. It would still be quick-moving systems ejected into the flow without much to slow them down. But, more cold air available for some small winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Rant on. 1st forecast: 2nd: 3rd: And we know the actual is basically shifting the 3rd map west about 20-30 miles West. Rant off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now