Syrmax Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: The big ULL underneath the -nao is whats shearing everything out. If you didn't have that though, you would be baking and we probably would be talking svr threats and wind storms So basically we're getting screwed out of epic warm and wild weather. Sadface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So basically we're getting screwed out of epic warm and wild weather. Sadface. Oh, I feel so, so, soooo bad for you, Buff, and Delta... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So basically we're getting screwed out of epic warm and wild weather. Sadface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: So basically we're getting screwed out of epic warm and wild weather. Sadface. Remember Dec 2015 during that strong moderate nino. That dec had a strong -pna too. So just imagine right now with a +nao instead of -nao and it would be very close to that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Remember Dec 2015 during that strong moderate nino. That dec had a strong -pna too. So just imagine right now with a +nao instead of -nao and it would be very close to that We had all of our snow in a 2 week period that winter. Jan 1st-Mid January. 4 decent LES events in that two week period. Finished around 80" that year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Yeah a stinker of a year lol December An amazingly warm and virtually snow-free month developed as a ridge of high pressure remained locked over the eastern United States. Almost all days averaged above normal for the month across western and north-central New York. The average December temperature smashed the previous warmest December on record by an unheard of 4+ degrees Fahrenheit. This warmth also produced a few spring flowers, blooming a second time before the winter season was established. Storm systems passed by the region to the west and east this month, a common track thus far this winter. There was one moderate lake effect event. Behind a cold front on the 18th, lake effect snow generated east of the eastern Great Lakes, with the snow producing the first measureable snowfall for Buffalo on the 18th. On the 28th a powerful storm system passed across the Central Great Lakes region and sent an area of precipitation over western and north-central New York, which remained below freezing at the onset. Light snow and freezing rain occurred with this system, along with gusty winds of 50 mph. The beginnings of a second lake effect snow event started in the waning hours of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We had all of our snow in a 2 week period that winter. Jan 1st-Mid January. 4 decent LES events in that two week period. Finished around 80" that year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=C Yea we had a favorable mjo passage in January that allowed for cold to come in. Down in sepa we had a blizzard with 15-30” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Seems the MJO is the momma-teleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Remember Dec 2015 during that strong moderate nino. That dec had a strong -pna too. So just imagine right now with a +nao instead of -nao and it would be very close to that That was a great winter. December no shows and only about 50" of snow at SYR for entire season but we hit -23F on Valentines Day. Which was shocking for a one off out of nowhere.. Other than that pretty easy to take. Lots of golf in Dec & March. I say this is the new normal we want and deserve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 You know what they say: "Give me winter or give me...SoCal weather. " 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, vortmax said: Seems the MJO is the momma-teleconnection. That and the pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Eh, it's always changing. In the 1990s and early 2000s it was the NAO....then it was the AO....then it was Nino/Nina.....then it was PNA....then it was Polar Vortex....now it's MJO and musings of EPO.... In general...many of them suck for us to have good winters...that's all that matters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Hmmm… 1pm Sunday Bills @ Patriots winner likely takes division title… SnowBowl2021??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Eh, it's always changing. In the 1990s and early 2000s it was the NAO....then it was the AO....then it was Nino/Nina.....then it was PNA....then it was Polar Vortex....now it's MJO and musings of EPO.... In general...many of them suck for us to have good winters...that's all that matters... I dunno, the nao to me is more of a i95 from nyc south type thing. Pacific pattern is number 1 and that is generally controlled by the mjo and a few other minor things. The pv can also alter the epo region too. Numerous instances of good winters with no nao help. But name some good winters when the pacific is poor? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I dunno, the nao to me is more of a i95 from nyc south type thing. Pacific pattern is number 1 and that is generally controlled by the mjo and a few other minor things. The pv can also alter the epo region too. Numerous instances of good winters with no nao help. But name some good winters when the pacific is poor? I guess Tugs point might be that it seems the triggers keep changing seemingly year to year. We always knew that a strong/super El Niño produced mild winters with much below average snowfall in the NE. We also knew that weak El Niño or La Niña we’re cold drivers with AN snows…issue us that seems to have changed. Now it’s a raging PAC that acts like a super Nino with out the characteristics that would create that scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I dunno, the nao to me is more of a i95 from nyc south type thing. Pacific pattern is number 1 and that is generally controlled by the mjo and a few other minor things. The pv can also alter the epo region too. Numerous instances of good winters with no nao help. But name some good winters when the pacific is poor? I agree that the Pacific is key...makes sense since air generally moves across our country from that area. Good point about the NAO...and the reason I think about it so much is the many times it was stressed for our good winters in SE PA when I was in Lancaster. I remember watching the Philly mets like Glenn Hurricane Swartz and John Bolaris show pretty maps of the NAO and its effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I guess Tugs point might be that it seems the triggers keep changing seemingly year to year. We always knew that a strong/super El Niño produced mild winters with much below average snowfall in the NE. We also knew that weak El Niño or La Niña we’re cold drivers with AN snows…issue us that seems to have changed. Now it’s a raging PAC that acts like a super Nino with out the characteristics that would create that scenario. Yea I get what you’re saying. but strong ninos and Ninas are generally bad because they generally have bad pacific patterns that are dominated with pacific air 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Oh, look, @rochesterdave, it's where Lows love to go.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I guess Tugs point might be that it seems the triggers keep changing seemingly year to year. We always knew that a strong/super El Niño produced mild winters with much below average snowfall in the NE. We also knew that weak El Niño or La Niña we’re cold drivers with AN snows…issue us that seems to have changed. Now it’s a raging PAC that acts like a super Nino with out the characteristics that would create that scenario. Exactly...seems like no matter the indices.................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, look, @rochesterdave, it's where Lows love to go.... Jamestown! Lol. Still hoping on a miracle. Odd pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 GFS ain’t alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Yeah Ggem focuses on a different wave.. That's why it's a day later..Shreds the one the GFS is showing just like the GFS shreds the one the Ggem is showing lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Jamestown! Lol. Still hoping on a miracle. Odd pattern. 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS ain’t alone I've mentioned it a couple time this week.. I "could" see this pattern "just" working out over the next week to provide something good. We have "just enough" cold air to possibly work with and moisture. I still see the models trying to key on tracks and timing of systems. This is a similar pattern to some from the past that have produced good wintry opportunities. There is sooo much risk, which is what we're seeing. Just a little bit north and we're screwed. But, there is potential. I also see some of them being much weaker in reality with the shredder in place. But even comparing the end of this week tonight to what we thought it would be like from yesterday's perspective...wintry chances are looking much better. It's still the meh, damp environment...but it's what we have to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 That was the best GFS run in awhile for cold air 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Gotta lean on ens post day 7 especially with the whole convoluted mess in the nao region and pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 If the rgem is right there will be a thin area up here that will luck out with a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 29 with some light snow. Forecast calling for 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 29 with some light snow. Forecast calling for 1-2 Just wanted to say I’m glad to see you here. MesoBanding from other forums. Moved from Philly to NW NJ and now Skaneateles in the Finger Lakes. I still credit you with the greatest pbp’s of all time on Christmas Eve prior to the Boxing Day Blizzard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Getting a nice, light but steady snowfall here this morning. Solid dusting so far. Ah, winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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