BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Way out in clown range but the end of GFS shows the potential if that cold air gets to the northeast. With that blocking in greenland it would be some epic stuff with open lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: It should and would be an epic LES pattern. However, its been stuck at that look at the 10 day-2 week timeframe for the last month. It keeps getting pushed farther and farther back. How many times have we had this carrot dangled out in front of us this past decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Once a pattern locks in, it really locks in. I sense there will be some cliff jumpers coming if this comes to fruition. I think you and a couple others were the only ones buying the potential pattern change. Like you said, once a pattern locks in…. But there’ll be jumpers none the less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I think you and a couple others were the only ones buying the potential pattern change. Like you said, once a pattern locks in…. But there’ll be jumpers none the less. I go on most sub forums and most Mets were buying it. Most professional outlooks had a cold/snowy December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How many times have we had this carrot dangled out in front of us this past decade? Gfs loves to dangle carrots. 1-2 good les events a year and I’m satisfied. Last year checked that box Last year was much better than the year prior. I don't think we had one good LES band over my place which is pretty rare for a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 A really good illustration of what is happening from the New England Forum, they have great discussions over there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Off Lake Erie, the quick switch to 270-290 flow Wednesday morning will focus lake snows ESE of the lake. Guidance suggest that there may be some added upstream priming but the shorter fetch will likely keep accumulations in check. That said, the most likely scenario will be a brief burst of snow immediately behind the front then declining returns throughout the day as drier air filters into the region. Right now, expect snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches in the most persistent snows across the higher terrain ESE of the Lake. Elsewhere, very little snowfall accumulation is anticipated with less than an inch. Off Lake Ontario, southwest flow will focus activity over the SLV in the morning then veers to 290-300 by mid afternoon. This will then focus lake snows in the late afternoon across Wayne, N. Cayuga, and Oswego county. Before this occurs, added upstream connections and the longer fetch coming into play will briefly enhance snowfall accumulations east of the lake across the Tug Hill as the band slowly shifts south. Snowfall accumulations still look light due to residence time of the band with 2-4 inches possible across the Tug Hill, lighter amounts elsewhere. Upper level trough axis overhead of far eastern New York State Wednesday night will support an area of surface low pressure over northeastern Maine. This will place the area under northwesterly flow, promoting 850mb temperatures to drop to a minimum of around -14C overnight Wednesday night. This will continue to promote upstream lake connections with a band of lake effect snow south/southeast of Lake Ontario. However, snow accumulations will be limited as the band will shift into an area of falling equilibrium levels, with up to an inch of snowfall possible southeast of lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Looking short term, I am going to challenge myself to enjoy the minor, brief interlude of wintry weather in the form of lake effect snow showers that we hopefully get tomorrow. Really gotta enjoy the pennies that are tossed in this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Even while the weekend system will weaken the broad mid-level ridge in place over the Great Lakes, the persistent longwave pattern will likely re-establish its dominance thereafter. This is demonstrated by a high degree of model and ensemble concurrence concentrating deep troughing over western Canada and the western CONUS. A pattern as such will favor cold air slipping southward down the front range of the Rockies, however any eastward advection of said cold pool is not evident in any solution through not only the end of the long term period, it would seemingly be unlikely to occur even through the end of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Off Lake Erie, the quick switch to 270-290 flow Wednesday morning will focus lake snows ESE of the lake. Guidance suggest that there may be some added upstream priming but the shorter fetch will likely keep accumulations in check. That said, the most likely scenario will be a brief burst of snow immediately behind the front then declining returns throughout the day as drier air filters into the region. Right now, expect snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches in the most persistent snows across the higher terrain ESE of the Lake. Elsewhere, very little snowfall accumulation is anticipated with less than an inch. Off Lake Ontario, southwest flow will focus activity over the SLV in the morning then veers to 290-300 by mid afternoon. This will then focus lake snows in the late afternoon across Wayne, N. Cayuga, and Oswego county. Before this occurs, added upstream connections and the longer fetch coming into play will briefly enhance snowfall accumulations east of the lake across the Tug Hill as the band slowly shifts south. Snowfall accumulations still look light due to residence time of the band with 2-4 inches possible across the Tug Hill, lighter amounts elsewhere. Upper level trough axis overhead of far eastern New York State Wednesday night will support an area of surface low pressure over northeastern Maine. This will place the area under northwesterly flow, promoting 850mb temperatures to drop to a minimum of around -14C overnight Wednesday night. This will continue to promote upstream lake connections with a band of lake effect snow south/southeast of Lake Ontario. However, snow accumulations will be limited as the band will shift into an area of falling equilibrium levels, with up to an inch of snowfall possible southeast of lake Ontario. BUF had a great discussion this afternoon. While not what I was hoping to read, they do a great job detailing the pattern in which we're stuck in layman's terms and how it's probably not going to change through the rest of the month/year. I say we just get rid of the -NAO, allow the warmth to surge in and bake us, and hopefully in doing so, allow that -PNA to move out....and we reshuffle this whole mess of a pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF had a great discussion this afternoon. While not what I was hoping to read, they do a great job detailing the pattern in which we're stuck in layman's terms and how it's probably not going to change through the rest of the month/year. I say we just get rid of the -NAO, allow the warmth to surge in and bake us, and hopefully in doing so, allow that -PNA to move out....and we reshuffle this whole mess of a pattern. January is going to be rockin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A really good illustration of what is happening from the New England Forum, they have great discussions over there. The big ULL underneath the -nao is whats shearing everything out. If you didn't have that though, you would be baking and we probably would be talking svr threats and wind storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Interesting 18Z NAM runs...kind of show what I had discussed yesterday... I had thought maybe the first wave would end up being the more potent of the two. Both look to try and drop an inch or two of synoptic Thursday night and Friday morning now. 12k is also making Saturday look like a very chilly rain or wet snow. My call for Christmas across Western and Central NY is dreary and damp in the 30s with snizzle/light showers...with many areas having a "white" one with slush on the ground. I just don't see enough time for the follow-up wave on Christmas to develop much/cut in this fast pattern. In fact, that will be the pattern through the end of the year. Unsettled, with 30s to lower 40s for highs....mixed rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 42 and sunny here, taking dog for walk after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Got to 35 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Rgem (best lake effect model) is also starting to show a healthy band of Lake effect snow Wednesday night across the Northern Finger Lakes/Lake Ontario Southshore. Then a bit of Synoptic Thursday night. Obviously I hope it comes in a little more WNW (that dumb curve to the south as it comes into Onondaga...) Hopefully we can get it to pan out. I like that models are getting a bit more impressive with it as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 42 and sunny here, taking dog for walk after work. Looking like the weeklies failed as well. Also looks like the back to back Nina with more snowfall is very much in jeopardy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looking like the weeklies failed as well. Also looks like the back to back Nina with more snowfall is very much in jeopardy Yep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Easterly wind kicked in here and the temp dropped 4 to 5 degrees rapidly across the Syracuse area. Currently sitting at 33 degrees here in the NW Burbs. The way this area responds so quickly to wind shifts continues to impress me. I see you guys out in Western NY are in the lower 40s with southerly winds, so perhaps we go back up again later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yep The west coast had a ridiculous heat ridge over the summer...why not give them a huge trough now? Oh, and we were STILL HOT here (and above normal) even when they had that summer ridge. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I'd be into the 18z GFS Boxing day storm... mid 20s with mod-heavy rain changing to snow. The 26th will always hold a spot in my heart. Can't believe it's been 11 years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I'd be into the 18z GFS Boxing day storm... mid 20s with mod-heavy rain changing to snow. The 26th will always hold a spot in my heart. Can't believe it's been 11 years At this time we were tracking the storm I will never forget Christmas morning when the Euro caved and showed a blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: At this time we were tracking the storm I will never forget Christmas morning when the Euro caved and showed a blizzard Yes, it coming back from modeling death on Xmas eve was epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I would take that 18z gfs run for day after Christmas. That would surely send @TugHillMattinto lake Oneida. Im Pounding fatties up here will he’s throwing a temper tantrum in puddles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I would take that 18z gfs run for day after Christmas. That would surely send @TugHillMattinto lake Oneida. Im Pounding fatties up here will he’s throwing a temper tantrum in puddles Do the women know you talk about them like that? 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Do the women know you talk about them like that? L-O-L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 48 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The west coast had a ridiculous heat ridge over the summer...why not give them a huge trough now? Oh, and we were STILL HOT here (and above normal) even when they had that summer ridge. lol Anything to deny cold and snow. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Anything to deny cold and snow. Lol. As much as it sucks here, the west coast needs it. They have been in such a prolific drought for the past few years. @wolfie09 can donate his snow to seattle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 So true. This has got to be the drought buster season they need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 They could get Ithaca to Syracuse's average annual totals within several days: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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