vortmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting 18Z run of the GFS. Tries to keep it almost all snow from CNY and eastward. Looks like it hits a wall as the cold air sinks in from the NE. Of course, it gets shredded, but like I talked about this morning, this is one of our only options if we want a White Christmas. I could also see that first "surprise" system that we are now seeing show up for Thursday night being the "stronger" of the two. Wouldn't that be dandy if just east of ROC got a white Christmas at the 11th hour this year. I think I'd rather get kicked in the nuts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Lol..I hate the NAM...with a passion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 I've been going through some winter weather summarys and think even I have a misrepresentation of what a normal winter is like in Upstate. It seems 1-2 big events alter ones way of thinking in any given winter. https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary0607 THE WINTER OF 2006-07 WAS CERTAINLY A UNIQUE ONE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS BRACKETED BY EXTREME EVENTS IN OCTOBER AND APRIL...BUT GENERALLY STARTED VERY LATE BUT ENDED RELUCTANTLY. IT WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR THE FREAK OCTOBER LAKE SNOW WHICH CRIPPLED THE BUFFALO AREA...BUT NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WERE AMONG THE WARMEST IN HISTORY AND LITTLE COLD OR SNOW WAS EVIDENT ANYWHERE UNTIL MID JANUARY. BUT A HARSH 6 TO 8 WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED WHICH INCLUDED THE COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 28 YEARS. SPRING TEASED US IN LATE MARCH BEFORE UNUSUAL COLD AND SNOW RETURNED FOR MUCH OF APRIL. REAL SPRING FINALLY ARRIVED IN LATE APRIL AND HAS CONTINUED INTO A VERY PLEASANT MAY. WINTER AS A WHOLE THOUGH WAS SOMEWHAT MILD WITH NEAR NORMAL SNOWFALL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've been going through some winter weather summarys and think even I have a misrepresentation of what a normal winter is like in Upstate. It seems 1-2 big events alter ones way of thinking in any given winter. https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary0607 THE WINTER OF 2006-07 WAS CERTAINLY A UNIQUE ONE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS BRACKETED BY EXTREME EVENTS IN OCTOBER AND APRIL...BUT GENERALLY STARTED VERY LATE BUT ENDED RELUCTANTLY. IT WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR THE FREAK OCTOBER LAKE SNOW WHICH CRIPPLED THE BUFFALO AREA...BUT NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WERE AMONG THE WARMEST IN HISTORY AND LITTLE COLD OR SNOW WAS EVIDENT ANYWHERE UNTIL MID JANUARY. BUT A HARSH 6 TO 8 WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED WHICH INCLUDED THE COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 28 YEARS. SPRING TEASED US IN LATE MARCH BEFORE UNUSUAL COLD AND SNOW RETURNED FOR MUCH OF APRIL. REAL SPRING FINALLY ARRIVED IN LATE APRIL AND HAS CONTINUED INTO A VERY PLEASANT MAY. WINTER AS A WHOLE THOUGH WAS SOMEWHAT MILD WITH NEAR NORMAL SNOWFALL. I think there is a lot more winters like that, however, the stretches we haven’t seen snow this season seems strange. Maybe we all have our own idea of what winter is “supposed “ to be but in reality we just blocked out much of the crap years or periods 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think there is a lot more winters like that, however, the stretches we haven’t seen snow this season seems strange. Maybe we all have our own idea of what winter is “supposed “ to be but in reality we just blocked out much of the crap years or periods Exactly. If we get a 50"+ event in January you think anyone will remember anything else about this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Exactly. If we get a 50"+ event in January you think anyone will remember anything else about this winter? Yes, because everything, and not just weather, seems to be in extremes these days. Extremes are much easier to remember. Although last year had a decent February, we remember the winter for the suckage that it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Yes, because everything, and not just weather, seems to be in extremes these days. Extremes are much easier to remember. Although last year had a decent February, we remember the winter for the suckage that it was. I enjoyed last winter quite a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I enjoyed last winter quite a bit. That's because you were one of the few here who actually had some big snowfalls off a lake and made it to triple digits for the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Icon with a Christmas miracle in SNE and interior NY 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: That's because you were one of the few here who actually had some big snowfalls off a lake and made it to triple digits for the season. I also chase so it doesn't have to happen in my backyard for me to enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon with a Christmas miracle in SNE and interior NY most of New York. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Some of my pack survived today's Sizzle thaw. If I get another trace tonight, the snowpack building will be well underway. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Maybe a christmas miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Maybe Xmas Eve but GFS has rain showers Christmas morning, doesn't look too heavy at least lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Maybe a christmas miracle? Which part? The heavier band over your locale or the snow hole over Syracuse? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 What I miss? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Nothing much, besides your icon giving us false hope lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nothing much, besides your icon giving us false hope lol Dynamic cooling FTW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Dynamic cooling FTW! ...and the Matt Effect. I'll be down in all that green in PA.... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nothing much, besides your icon giving us false hope lol When you look at garbage models you usually get garbage results 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: When you look at garbage models you usually get garbage results Whoa, whoa. Them's fightin' words. Save those for OT or your Philly Subforum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: When you look at garbage models you usually get garbage results It beat the crap out of the big ones on the last one. But I agree, it’s not good 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Check Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 EURO says no dice. Says, “you fools crazy for even thinking that” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: EURO says no dice. Says, “you fools crazy for even thinking that” It's further south but weaker Euro is way different this run with multiple waves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 For reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: EURO says no dice. Says, “you fools crazy for even thinking that” Both the 0Z GFS and Euro seem to try and keep our precip. on Christmas as virga or non-existent until the temp warms too much for snow...and we get rain. I say just let the lead wave on Christmas eve drop an inch or two and then this second thing just shred apart with no warm air being pulled in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Yuck. The Euro is a trainwreck of damp, maritime air with shower chances from the weekend through the first part of next week. We're getting Seattle's weather if the Euro ends up correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just a mess: Good thing it's over a week away and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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