TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 5:08 PM, Thinksnow18 said: I guess I’m not shocked the NWS is going so low, but now that the higher res NAM family has shifted south, who are they hanging their hat in? Oh and the rest of the 12z looks amazing throughout Expand Yeah, they all look pretty good for 3 to 6 inches along the Thruway(GFS and NAM a little on the edge). I don't blame them though for hesitating. As we've been talking about, these tend to go farther north and they seem to think the High isn't very strong in pushing south. Perhaps their thinking will change a bit with the most recent runs. I could see both NWS offices (BUF and BGM) bumping up to 2 to 3 inches for the NY 20 corridor and north to Lake Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Let's go member #20 lol Gefs still meh, with a few ok solutions.. The mean is about 2"-3", so it could be worse.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 5:20 PM, wolfie09 said: Let's go member #20 lol Gefs still meh, with a few ok solutions.. Expand It legit looks like somebody intentionally cropped out, in a circular motion, Central NY from being in that purple. lol... @Syrmaxand @Thinksnow18, how did you hack the GEFS??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 5:24 PM, TugHillMatt said: It legit looks like somebody intentionally cropped out, in a circular motion, Central NY from being in that purple. lol... @Syrmaxand @Thinksnow18, how did you hack the GEFS??? Expand I thought about it but wasn’t going to say it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Every model still seems warm the next two weeks. Really thought we’d be seeing a pattern change next week but it’s pushed back again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Minus a warm day or two the GFS looks chilly to me lol With a bunch of northern stream disturbances.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 5:58 PM, wolfie09 said: Minus a warm day or two the GFS looks chilly to me lol With a bunch of northern stream disturbances.. Expand Yeah I agree with you on that. I also read the typhoon is causing the models to stay warm as it’s not picking up on small details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Euro 12z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Yup, euro came in a little colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Advisory worthy 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I’m feeling it. Here comes my inch!!lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Let the crazy commence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 6:53 PM, rochesterdave said: Let the crazy commence Expand Love it for my Lake Placid region. GFS appears to also be in agreement. Seems like the track is pretty much set plus or minus some wiggle room N or S. This should have already been sampled by now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 7:00 PM, Weather Mike said: Love it for my Lake Placid region. GFS appears to also be in agreement. Seems like the track is pretty much set plus or minus some wiggle room N or S. This should have already been sampled by now. Expand I'd like to be a little further N but I'm feeling pretty good IMBY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Thinking KBUF changes their wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 7:24 PM, Ericjcrash said: I'd like to be a little further N but I'm feeling pretty good IMBY too. Expand I think you're in a good spot with a front end dump.... Then maybe some mixing at the tail end. Places I would worry about, Is the Western finger lakes and the lake Ontario lake plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 At this point, I wouldn't mind a 4 inch thump of snow, followed by a layer of sleet, and then some lake effect on top. I love the snow-preserving qualities of a sleet layer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 5:42 PM, CNY_WX said: I thought about it but wasn’t going to say it. Expand You didn't because you knew that my big mouth/flapping fingers would.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Warmest in NY State: 67 degrees in Sizzlecuse. SW winds and nobody else in this state can compete with the flamethrowing burning furnace that is this place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 NAM ticks south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Little by little lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3k way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3k looks more solid as well...Nice advisory event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 You beat me by a millisecond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Showing some lake help. Don’t get reeled in- this could still go north like NWS expects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Looks like BGM is going with 3 to 4 inches north of the Thruway: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 8:43 PM, TugHillMatt said: You beat me by a millisecond. Expand Quick on the draw. Feeling better here, cant find any guidance that gets me above freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 8:44 PM, rochesterdave said: Showing some lake help. Don’t get reeled in- this could still go north like NWS expects Expand This is a bit different in that if the High, which is actually there, pushes south more, the system will run in more a west to east fashion...rather than what has become the typical SW to NE fashion. That could save us and give us several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 GFS and NAM very similar, probably why WPC and NWS have it going through S/C NY.. Most of the damage could be done by then though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 8:46 PM, Ericjcrash said: Quick on the draw. Feeling better here, cant find any guidance that gets me above freezing. Expand I'll be happy for the Capital-region snowlovers if there's a good snowfall there. Snowfall has been pretty lacking there as well over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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