Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[rochesterdave]

Could it be an actual general snowfall? 

[tim123]

Its very debatable.

[DeltaT13]

3 hours ago, winter_rules said:

That’s ironic, because East of Binghamton it was essentially the worst Christmas Eve into Christmas we could ask for in terms of snow.  We lost +/-30” of snow in about 24hrs with something like 2” of rain to help wash it away.  Went to bed with rain on a diminishing snowpack, woke up to brown ground with water flowing everywhere, including through my unfinished basement.  

Anywhere East of of the 3 most Western Counties was a disastrous washout last Christmas.  Rochester had hours of pounding rain.  Was a kick to the nuts.  

[rochesterdave]

ICON and GFS with similar maps if you consider their biases. GFS expects too much.

[rochesterdave]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Its very debatable.

We should kick this over to the other page but you literally have a red hat on right now don’t you? Lol

[tim123]

And you have dementia.

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Could it be an actual general snowfall? 

I’m sticking with the 90 north special. We’re 72 hours out and I’m seeing some pretty good run to run consistency. This is small potatoes but honestly, or hopefully, a pattern trend starts and we start getting into pattern recognition in our favor. 

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Anywhere East of of the 3 most Western Counties was a disastrous washout last Christmas.  Rochester had hours of pounding rain.  Was a kick to the nuts.  

I have never been so close to a line like that. We picked up about 6” that night in Williamsville and just 40 miles east it was rain. Very strange storm track for sure

[BuffaloWeather]

13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

He doesn’t care. He loves making that point because he knows nearly all of the state had a green Christmas last year. Which actually made it even better for him. He’s the little brother of the group. 

I thought you guys got 3-4" from the synoptic storm before the lake effect kicked in? Also Binghamton had 40+" of snow the week prior. I'd trade this entire winter for that one storm Bing got. I really only enjoy the big dogs and high snowfall rates. Snow depth and cold temps don't do it for me. Everyone has their own niche. 

[Syrmax]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hey who knows maybe January is rocking with 40 degree lakes and we all get a 100" month, its possible.

If we get a clipper pattern going in January for 2-3 weeks its not out of the realm of possibilities. The problem has been no cold air.

Put down, and slowly step away from the crack pipe!

[Weather Mike]

27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Could it be an actual general snowfall? 

 

GFS has actually been somewhat consistent lately  over the past several runs. Here's to hoping those numbers pan out and the ICON is underperforming.  Time will tell. 

[tim123]

Icons snowfall output i find is usually a bit low

[TugHillMatt]

Looks like there's some actual general consensus with some snow along the Thruway. Per usual, a weak wave with a very, very narrow swath of snow. NAM looks super weak. Rgem looks a bit better. This could be a 1 to 3 inch event that melts the next day when temps hit 40 again. Or, a "less than an inch of slush" deal, especially if it happens in the afternoon. With Spring temperatures this week, the ground is quite warm, so it will probably start melting immediately after it's done or as it's snowing.

Yep, negative tone...but par for the course for our new Mid-Atlantic winters.

 

 

[wolfie09]

Friday night and Saturday a mid level trough will move from the
Northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a well
defined baroclinic wave will develop along a stalled frontal zone in
the Ohio Valley, with the resulting surface low moving into southern
Pennsylvania Saturday, and then off the southern new England coast
Saturday night. High pressure will build into the western Great
Lakes and Ontario/Quebec at the same time, allowing a colder airmass
to filter into our region as the wave passes by to our south.

The majority of Friday night will be dry, with a chance of some
light precipitation toward Saturday morning near the Pennsylvania
state line. Saturday a shield of precipitation will overspread the
area from southwest to northeast, with the greater QPF likely found
from the Southern Tier into Central NY in closer proximity to the
ribbon of stronger frontogenesis to the north of the surface wave
track. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement now with large
scale features, but differences still emerge in the finer details of
thermal profiles. There will likely be a narrow stripe of modest
snowfall on the northern edge of this system, and rain farther south
closer to the low track, and a zone of wintry mix between. Given the
inherent uncertainty at this time range, kept precip type as rain
and/or snow for now.

[CNY_WX]

12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like there's some actual general consensus with some snow along the Thruway. Per usual, a weak wave with a very, very narrow swath of snow. NAM looks super weak. Rgem looks a bit better. This could be a 1 to 3 inch event that melts the next day when temps hit 40 again. Or, a "less than an inch of slush" deal, especially if it happens in the afternoon. With Spring temperatures this week, the ground is quite warm, so it will probably start melting immediately after it's done or as it's snowing.

Yep, negative tone...but par for the course for our new Mid-Atlantic winters.

 

 

I say keep your expectations low (which I don’t think is hard for you) and hope for a surprise.   I get the feeling elevation is going to play a role in accumulations. Temperatures will be very marginal, especially on the lake plain. 

[tim123]

3 to 5 inches on gfs.

[rochesterdave]

HP to the north. Good track. It’s all coming together here. I’d still be concerned with a more nw track. 

[wolfie09]

Mix line is close but that's usually where the best rates are..

[rochesterdave]

Check the LES signature off of Huron. This track is perfect for a boost SE of the lakes. 

[wolfie09]

Definitely can't have a late game trend north or sizzlecuse will be living up to it's name lol

[wolfie09]

39° here with graupel..

[wolfie09]

Actually it's sleet and coming down pretty good..

[wolfie09]

Canadian a little colder, keeping the mix line towards the NY/PA border.. 

[wolfie09]

Ukie starting to get there.. Now we have to keep it for the next 2-3 days without any major shifts lol Either way it's looking like a modest 3"-6" event as it stands now..

 

[TugHillMatt]

The Canadian definitely came south compared to its previous runs. Majority of models look like the best snow in NY will hit between the Thruway and 86.

It looks like they're having some trouble figuring out the pattern towards Christmas. Seeing how they're showing Lows forming, and the track of those lows, they could be sniffing out perhaps a clipper pattern. It still might not have lots of cold air though.

 

 

[tim123]

12z gfs flips pattern finally. Develops huge ridge out west. 

[wolfie09]

Even the WPC knows lol

[Syrmax]

18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Actually it's sleet and coming down pretty good..

We had a few pingers right at the start. So there's a T of frozen precip for the daily log.

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We had a few pingers right at the start. So there's a T of frozen precip for the daily log.

Early dismissal from school?

[tim123]

Nice pattern in gfs. Would crush rochester to oswego.